Benning: “Markstrom is ready now to play in the NHL”
By Rhys Jessop
8 years agoVancouver Cancuks General Manager Jim Benning joined the Sekeres and Price show on TSN radio this morning to talk about Jacob Markstrom’s play down in Utica, among other Comets news and notes. While there wasn’t a whole ton in the way of new information, Benning did drop an interesting tidbit in regards to how Vancouver’s goaltending situation is going to play out this upcoming summer.
Is Benning’s confidence in Markstrom misplaced? What does this mean for Eddie Lack? We’ll investigate after the jump.
First and foremost, you can listen to the audio of Benning’s interview here.
Benning began the interview by praising how Markstrom has learned to battle more this season, citing his improved mental toughness, as evidenced by his strong playoff run. While we traditionally roll our eyes at stuff like this, it’s worth noting that this has been a rather well-documented concern for Markstrom in the past, and his performance in crunch time or in high-pressure situations is consistent with that of a guy who tends to lose his cool when the spotlight is squarely on him.
From what I think is the definitive Jacob Markstrom analysis piece, via the long time goalie analysis pioneer The Contrarian Goaltender:
Some have questioned whether Markstrom has the makeup to be an NHLer. It’s interesting to read the early scouting reports that suggested that mental toughness was one of his strengths as a prospect. On the other hand, while I’m not huge on trying to measure a guy’s mental state, especially for a young goalie where we’re already limited to tiny samples for everything, I think it has to be at least mentioned that Markstrom has not only taken some time to adapt to both North American pro leagues he’s played in, but also has a poor record in playoff games throughout his young career. This is true not only in the Swedish Elite League and the AHL, but also in international tournaments (U18s and world juniors), where it has become a bit of a pattern for Markstrom to be close to unbeatable during the round robin and then struggle in the playoffs.
International career:
Round robin games: 252/266, .947
Playoff games: 132/155, .852
2010 Elitserien playoffs: 112/124, .903
2012 Calder Cup playoffs: 253/289, .907
That’s a combined .875 on 568 shots, which is well below Markstrom’s usual rates at those levels of competition. That doesn’t by any means guarantee that Markstrom cannot succeed, it is likely largely random or affected by other factors (e.g. strength of team/opposition), and most of it came five or more years ago when Markstrom was quite a bit younger than he is now. I wouldn’t wager much at all based on these results going forward, but it might be something to at least be aware of if you are the goalie coach and/or sports psychologist employed by a team that has Markstrom under contract.
Markstrom’s 2015 Calder Cup run has been dominant, even by his lofty AHL regular season standards, as his eye-popping 0.931 AHL save percentage blows all of his previous “crunch-time” results out of the water. Again, I wouldn’t bet against his being mainly variance-driven, but maybe it’s the kick in the pants a young goalie needs to get his head in order to put it all together at the next level.
And from Benning’s quotes, it sounds like the Canucks expect Markstrom to play at the next level in the 2015-16 season. The money quote this morning was “Jacob Markstrom is ready now to play in the NHL,” and Benning also mentioned how Markstrom is a “different goaltender” than he was at the beginning of the year.
There’s something to this point, as Markstrom has made significant adjustments to his game under the guidance of Rollie Melanson and Dan Cloutier. InGoal Magazine’s Greg Balloch previously told me that Markstrom struggled with chasing the play, and Melanson has been working hard to correct his deficiencies there. Being a towering 6’6″ tall, Markstrom has also struggled with pucks leaking through his body in the past, but adjustments to his stance have been made to address this issue too. As professional goaltending coach (and VANCOUVER GIANTS LEGEND) Sean Murray explains:
So we know that Markstrom is a different goalie, and while steps have been taken that we think should help his transition, we don’t know if Markstrom is a better goalie than he was previously. If you squint, Markstrom’s most recent AHL numbers might look a tiny bit better, but the fact of the matter is that these tweaks to Markstrom’s game have yet to make a significantly noticeable impact on the results we’re able to measure.
Markstrom Rolling 20-GP AHL Sv% (since start of career), via The Contrarian Goaltender
It’s entirely possible that the combination of being slow to read plays, too large to close down holes, and struggling under pressure will plague Markstrom for the rest of his career and conspire to keep him from being an NHL goalie, but he’s still dominated every level he’s ever played at, he’s now dominated under pressure, and we have reason to believe he’s made technical changes that will help him succeed at that next level of competition. We might guess that he’s now an NHL-caliber guy, but we really have no way of being confident in this until he gets another NHL shot.
What was left un-said about Markstrom and his chances of playing in the NHL is perhaps just as interesting in regards to what the Canucks will have to do with their goalies. With Markstrom set to make a minimum of $1.4 million this season thanks to RFA rules, he will be too expensive to keep in the AHL. Vancouver has to move a goalie, and while much of the speculation has been around Eddie Lack, Benning was non-committal on Markstrom’s Canucks future.
Benning has repeatedly made reference to his management team having yet to sit down to discuss the direction they’re going to go in, saying that a decision on Markstrom had yet to be made. He also answered a Blake Price question, saying “there will be teams interested for sure” should the Canucks put Markstrom on the market.
To me, this genuinely sounds like Benning doesn’t yet know how this situation is going to play out, and is just trying to talk up both of his guys in the event that a team wants to bite on either Markstrom or Lack. We do know Lack is possibly on the table under the right circumstances, and from this interview today, it certainly doesn’t sound like they’re all-in on Markstrom either. If they were ready to hand the reigns to Markstrom, you think you would expect to hear more things about how the team is going to try to get him signed, how he’s expected to hold down an NHL role in Vancouver next year, or how he’s ready to learn from Ryan Miller.
I’ve mentioned previously how a Lack trade just doesn’t make sense from the Canucks’ point of view, and nothing Jim Benning said today should give us any reason to revise this stance. He will have to move one goaltender soon, and although getting Ryan Miller’s $6 Million contract off the books would be the best case scenario, I still get the sense that Markstrom will end up being the odd man out. They’ve done their best to build him into an asset, but Miller isn’t moving, and given Miller’s are and Markstrom’s NHL track record, it’s too risky to ship out Eddie Lack.
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