Are the Canucks Going to Trade Zack Kassian?

It seems like it’s almost impossible to write a Zack Kassian article these days without including the words “mercurial,” “enigmatic,” or “maligned.” Certainly the big-bodied forward has struggled to not only live up to the enormous expectations placed on him when he was drafted 13th overall in 2009 (though had we been doing our draft work back then, we likely would’ve pointed out that Kassian wasn’t exactly on the development path of a future top-6 forward), but to even gain the favour of three NHL head coaches. 

As a right-handed big guy with soft hands and a mean streak in junior, Kassian looked tailor-made to play with the Sedin twins, but questions about his defensive game and a general inclination to board play rather than driving the net have conspired to keep him off of Vancouver’s top line.

Not only that, but a crowding depth chart, early season trade rumblings, and a constricting cap situation look like they’re all conspiring to push the Big Guy out of town. Will the Canucks trade Zack Kassian this offseason? Let’s take a look after the jump.

Kassian has had some success with Daniel and Henrik, you should note that it’s really really hard not to have success as the right winger on Vancouver’s top line. Even in the last two seasons, Kassian’s success with Daniel and Henrik isn’t all that impressive relative to other Vancouver RWs either. Per Puckalytics.com’s Super WOWY tool:

The Sedins outscored their opponents more with Jannik Hansen or Radim Vrbata on their RW than they did with Kassian, and out-attempted their opponents by the largest margins when playing with Hansen or Alex Burrows. Away from the Sedins, we know that Kassian yields scoring chances at a rate higher than any other regular Canuck player, so while his offensive proficiency makes him one of Vancouver’s 12 best forwards, he hasn’t developed into an irreplaceable asset.

Turning 25 next season, Kassian isn’t young anymore either. Most players are pretty close to what-you-see-is-what-you-get territory by Kassian’s age, and it’s tough to believe that Kassian will be an exception. Infamously late developing Todd Bertuzzi eclipsed 0.5 Pts/GP at 20 years old (Kassian’s career high is 0.39 Pts/GP), and the much-coveted 26-year old Milan Lucic is already showing signs of decline and had his 30-goal season at 22 years old. Improvement is definitely possible for Kassian and his per-minute scoring rates are very good, but at this point in his career, it’s getting less and less likely that he’ll be able to round out his defensive game enough to develop into a full-time top-6 NHLer that doesn’t need to be sheltered. Add in a fairly significant back issue, and well, who knows.

If Zack Kassian isn’t going to be in Vancouver’s top-6 forward group over Alex Burrows or Radim Vrbata or even Jannik Hansen, it looks equally unlikely that Vancouver sees him as a fit on the bottom end of their roster too. Jim Benning is locked in to Derek Dorsett for better or for worse, and Linden Vey is a cheap and flexible young option provided they get him signed to a reasonable RFA deal. The Canucks are deep in warm bodies at right wing, so much so that Shawn Matthias was converted from a C to play the left side this season and Derek Dorsett frequently played his off-wing with Bo Horvat. If a body is going to get moved to make room for players elsewhere on the roster, it’s likely going to be a right winger.

On top of that, it appears as though Vancouver is going to be forced into trading somebody this offseason. While Kevin Bieksa, Chris Higgins, Radim Vrbata, and Dan Hamhuis would free up the most cap space and yield the largest return, Kassian has looked like he’s the guy most likely to move in the past, and there’s little reason to believe the club’s perception has changed. The team needs to get at least two more forwards and one defenseman for the big club next season, and also have space left over for an extra body or two to carry through the season, but they only have about $3.2 million to spend, according to General Fanager.

Filling these holes from within with Jake Virtanen, Andrey Pedan, and two of Gaunce/Shinkaruk/Jensen would put Vancouver roughly $200k over the cap, and the team still has to ink Yannick Weber, Adam Clendening, Linden Vey, Ronalds Kenins, Sven Baertschi, and Frank Corrado and qualify Jacob Markstrom to a fairly expensive RFA deal. Jim Benning looks like he’ll have to move someone just for the sake of moving someone if he even wants to ice a full roster next season, which, given where the Canucks are in their competitive cycle, is really not a good look.

So we know that the Canucks aren’t high on Kassian, but they aren’t necessarily wrong in that regard. We also know that they’ve actively shopped Kassian in the past, are deep at right wing, and need to dump salary to ice a full team next season. Given that Jim Benning also wants an early mid-round pick back after dealing his 2nd rounder in the Sven Baertschi trade, it almost seems like a certainty that the Vancouver Canucks will trade Zack Kassian for draft picks by the entry draft if his health permits it and there is any kind of a market.

It’s unfortunate because the Canucks need young NHL assets going forward, since there’s an absolute dearth of talent between the Sedins’ age and Bo Horvat’s. Draft picks can be like magic beans at times (only one out of every 5 forwards drafted in rounds 2-3 will play 200 career NHL games), so the odds of Vancouver getting something substantial for Zack Kassian seem pretty small if they do decide to move him. Still, it feels like the prospect of seeing Kassian in a Canucks jersey come September is getting more and more remote.