10 Ways to Look Good While Tanking and Why the Canucks Are Doing It Wrong
By Jeremy Davis
8 years agoThere was no shortage of debate in the off-season about what path the Canucks should be taking this season. Should they build for the future, or push for wins in the present? The Canucks chose to try to do both at the same time, to the chagrin of many of their most vocal fans. It can’t be done, they said, either throw in the towel and tank or go all in.
Instead, the Canucks found what appeared to be a happy medium. They cut loose a number of veterans and infused the team with youth and lo and behold, they saw immediate results. The Canucks, without ever using the term, were rebuilding, and they were winning at the same time.
This is Vancouver though, so naturally it’s all gone horribly wrong. The Canucks seem to have lost the ability to win, which is super for the draftist crowd. Unfortunately, they aren’t tanking properly either.
I feel I need to start with a disclaimer, lest I be burdened with any more gross misinterpretations. I’m trying to have a little fun here and make the best of whatever frustrating funk the Canucks are in. Serve your takes accordingly.
I don’t believe the Canucks are currently tanking, nor do I believe their current roster is even capable of finishing near the bottom of the standings. In fact, I’m not even entirely convinced that tanking is the best method to eventual success (though it certainly has its merits).
Despite what some may try to convince you of, there is no proper path to success in the NHL. Yes, teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago are built around top draft picks (though they alienated their fan bases or nearly lost their franchise relocation before getting them), but there are plenty more teams with top picks that have had far less success if any at all.
Likewise, the perennial contender model seems to have stalled out in Detroit for the time being. The old fashioned model of drafting, developing, signing and trading is hit or miss as well. The jury is still out on the quickest and easiest method, and it’s become more about playing the odds. Some see high picks as the greatest odds though others fear that it has the greatest risks.
Anyways, I’m not here to determine which rebuild tactic is best. Instead, I’d like to make some observations regarding one of these methods.
Let’s say, hypothetically, that your team wanted to tank – that is, achieve the worst possible record in order to get the highest possible draft pick. What are the biggest obstacles?
The Problem With the Tank
One of the greatest impediments to tanking is the fact that hockey is a business, and is subject to factors that lay outside of the singular goal of winning.
This doesn’t just mean “THE OWNERS WANT THAT SWEET PLAYOFF REVENUE” (although I’m sure they would appreciate it). It’s also about retaining fan interest. Notoriously fickle fan bases like the one in Vancouver have a tendency to turn their backs on poorly performing teams. Disinterested fans means falling ticket sales, evaporating interest in merchandise and financial losses across the board.
Lots of folks believe that the Canucks can garner fan interest by selling “hope”, while tumbling towards the bottom of the standings. What does hope look like? High pedigree picks that show promise for the future? Surely an active roster that carries names like Jared McCann, Jake Virtanen, Bo Horvat, Ben Hutton, Sven Baertschi and Hunter Shinkaruk will draw skeptical fans out of the woodwork to fill the seats of Rogers Arena.
Instead, fan interest seems to be waning more than it has in a long while, at least in terms of ticket sales as attendance continues to decline. It is because of the stated goals? If the Canucks iced this same youthful lineup but publicly stated that they were in the hunt for Auston Matthews, would that sell more tickets? I don’t believe it would.
In my opinion (and this is nothing more than a hypothesis), hope is not enough to put fans in seats. It will provide interest for the future and maybe fans will watch – but they will do so from home. If you want to keep people coming to the arena, you cannot perform a Tim Murray tank and ice an embarrassment of a team that gets blown out regularly and posts some of the worst statistics in the recorded history of the game. That will not fly in this market. You need to provide entertainment, and good feelings, not soul crushing despair.
You need to look good while being bad.
How to Look Good While Tanking
A team in a market like Vancouver should not be tanking willy nilly. There needs to be a set of criteria established for how to lose without pissing off your fan base. It’s all about perception. Here are ten ideas for looking good while tanking.
- Lose a Lot, by a Little
Losses are essential to the tank, that much is obvious. But to retain interest, you can’t be getting embarrassed on a regular basis. When games appear to be in reach, fans will pay closer attention, rather than tuning out expecting yet another blow out. The Canucks’ hearts are in the right place so far this year – they are already adept at losing one-goal game this season, but they’re still making a critical error… - Lose in Regulation
Losing in overtime is just plain bad news. First of all, you’re piling up extra loser points – the NHL’s version of a participation ribbon. How long do you expect to last up near the top of the division while losing two thirds of your games? False expectations are a dangerous thing to a tanking team. Moreover, with the new 3-on-3 format, every OT loss is more of a spectacle than ever before. Getting scored on in 3-on-3 is often the result of visually striking breakdowns, making a team’s ineptitude far more pronounced than it would likely be during a goal scored at 5-on-5. Which brings me to my next criterion: - Win in Overtime
If you’re going to go to the extra frame, you might as well take the win, for the reasons listed in the previous point. 3-on-3 goals look more spectacular – take advantage of that fact and score some spectacular goals in extra time. Ideally, those wins should bring increased good feelings and take away the sting or rarely winning in regulation. - Trail a Lot
This may seem counterproductive, but there are plenty of benefits. First, the overall goal is losing a lot, and trailing makes that much easier. Leading games and losing games are a bad combination – it means leads are being blown, and that pisses people off. So stop leading. Another major benefit is that trailing teams tend to out-possess their opponents, thanks to the magic of score effects. Not only will nice possession number soothe the fancy stat crowd, it also makes the game more visually appealing. A team that is pressing for late goals looks more impressive on the surface than the team clinging to a lead. - Make Comebacks, Almost
This goes nicely with Point #4. Go down by two or three goals early in the third and start wailing on teams. Score a couple of goals late in the third to make it seem like you were on the cusp of tying up the game. Don’t actually tie the game very often (see point #2), but if you do, proceed to point #3. As often as possible, try to score the final goal of the game. The goal that puts you within one. The recency effect will soothe the audience. Thinking “we we’re so close, if only the game had gone on for another minute” is a hell of a lot better than thinking “we had that game, and it slipped away”. - Win More at Home
Be kind to your fans. The home crowd doesn’t give a damn if your team are “road warriors”. Lose on the road, win at home. Maybe your team gets 30 wins in a season (30-47-5 produces 65 points, which should guarantee you a top five pick with a decent shot at first overall), so why make make 20 of those wins on home ice. That’s practically a .500 record. Not bad for a tank team. - Beat Your Rivals
I don’t care how good the top draft picks are, you still should not be losing to the Oilers. Lose to the eastern teams, lose to Nashville and Colorado, no one will care. The Canucks could lose 55 time in a season, but if they sweep the series against Edmonton and Calgary, and take the home games against the Blackhawks and Bruins, they will find the fans to be more forgiving. - Win a Blowout Once in a While
You want to keep your total number of wins at a reasonable level, that much is true, but there is no aggregate scoring here – your overall goal total won’t penalize you. Following the same logic as point #1 (losing by a little), when you do win you should win by a lot. This is another great way of making your fans remember the wins more than the losses, even when there are far fewer of them. - Get “Better” As the Season Rolls On
This is again about taking advantage of the recency effect, and follows the same logic as point #5 (make comebacks), though on a grander scale. Sure, it’s gonna bum the fans out if 75% of the games are losses in the early going, but if the win percentage creeps up towards the end of the season, the fans are going to feel better once the campaign is mercifully complete. - Make Sure Your Stars Still Get Plenty of Points
Nothing attracts eyeballs like a good display of Sedinery. The Sedins don’t deserve to be on an awful team, but if they’re going to be, they should at least continue to put up good numbers. A solid season out of the franchise’s all-time greatest players will numb some of the pain of the team being such big losers – inversely, a poor season out of the twins will add to the misery as it radiates a strong and depressing message that one of the greatest things that the organization had going for it is at an end. So let them score a lot (especially when trying to achieve point #8), even if they’re the only ones doing it regularly.
There you have it. A nice, simple set of criteria to follow to keep your point totals low, while still retaining some semblance of respect from your fan base.
Note: There are still plenty of problems with this method, namely the “winning culture” that NHL teams are often after. Certainly you don’t want to have a situation like Edmonton’s, where the core leadership group is approaching its prime age range, and none of them have experienced anything resembling success. Massive amounts of losses is not exactly the type of environment that you want your McCanns and Virtanens developing in. That issue will have to be a matter for another time, though, this is just a jumping off point.
Off On the Wrong Foot
The 2015-16 edition of the Vancouver Canucks are not a tanking, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t consider following at least some of these rules, if only to benefit how they are perceived. Unfortunately, they’re doing pretty much all of it wrong. Sure, they’re losing plenty, but six overtime losses isn’t doing anyone any favours. All those extra time breakdowns are doing is pissing people off.
Speaking of pissing people off, stop blowing leads. In fact, the Canucks are leading too much, period. Trail more, mount spectacular comebacks. Leading does not feel good right now, it feels uncomfortable.
The Canucks are doing just fine in the almost-comeback category. Games like St. Louis and Pittsburgh were prime examples of falling behind and clawing back to just barely lose in regulation. Heck, both games contains scoring chances in the dying seconds – they were so close!
But in other areas, there are huge issues. Losing to terrible, no good rival teams like Calgary and Edmonton in overtime is breaking multiple rules. Just beat them, and beat them thoroughly.
In all seriousness, I think this team is a lot better that they’ve shown on this road trip, and there is plenty of time to improve their overall play, especially considering how weak the Pacific division is.
I do believe it’s possible to look good while tanking. The Canucks are also demonstrating that it’s possible to look terrible while sticking in a playoff position. All things considered, if they’re going to play the whole season like they’ve played on this road trip, I actually think I’d feel less frustrated if they just started doing the former.
Recent articles from Jeremy Davis
