Why Nicklas Jensen should be in the Canucks’ opening night lineup

It’s not difficult to see why this city is so excited about their team’s prospects of late. The core of this team just ain’t what it used to be, and the mantra around town is “Change is Coming”The most noticeable difference between the franchise now and last season would be the burgeoning cupboard of prospects the Canucks can now call their own; it’s amazing how significantly consecutive seasons with two selections in the first-round (including two top-10 picks) can change the complexion of an organization’s system. 

Fans see it, they like it and they want it sooner, rather than later. The external pressure alone – coupled with declining ticket sales – could prove a daunting duo of factors that might sway the Canucks in their decisions regarding these prospects. Internally, they are faced with an equally challenging set of circumstances surrounding these decisions.

If that wasn’t enough, the youth of this team has done their best to try and force themselves into a spot with impressive point totals so far in the pre-season. These are new wrinkles to the plot that have surely given Jim Benning reason for pause when filling in his opening night roster with a ballpoint pen. Stick with lead, not ink, for now Mr. Benning. 

We’ll find out just how NHL ready some of these prospects are and get a better idea of how well they’ve played this pre-season on the other side of the jump.

The Big Three

When talking about Canucks prospects making progress towards a roster spot, the chatter generally centers on Bo Horvat, Nicklas Jensen and the aforementioned Hunter Shinkaruk. Frankie Corrado gets his fair share of buzz too, but his play of late has done little to build on that. With the first three prospects generating all the hype around town, it only seems fair that I break down where they’re at.

So far, they’ve been relatively impressive. Shinkaruk and Jensen sit atop the Canucks leaderboard for goals and in the case of Jensen, points as well. Horvat’s play can best be described as unassuming and mistake free to this point, but even he has a goal to his credit.

It’s easy enough to look at the boxcar stats of these players and feel they’re well on their way to creating a spot for themselves in the regular season. Goal scoring is something the Canucks struggled mightily with last season and these kids seem kind of good at that, so far.

There’s also the fact that Benning himself has essentially said that the youth of this team has been told that if they play well enough, he will make room to accommodate them. If only it were that easy. Here’s Benning on Horvat, in particular:

“He’s going to have to come in and prove to us that we have to move one of those guys out to mark room for him. Bo Horvat is a very good young player, he has proved a lot at the Junior level already. It’ll start this weekend, it’ll give him a jump start on training camp. Some of those guys you mentioned [Bonino, Vey, Matthias, Richardson] can play at the wing too, so if he deserves to be on the team we can shift things up to make room for him.”

If it’s goal production that is going to put some of these prospects over the top, now seems like a good time to remind you all of that four game stretch when Jeff Cowan had six-goals. Goals happen in bunches all the time, but it doesn’t necessarily mean anything. This sentiment is doubly true of the pre-season.

Jensen’s production matches up nicely with how he’s playing and the rate at which he’s producing shots. The same can not be said for either of Shinkaruk or Horvat. Neither of them are moving the needle for the Canucks in the possession game and their shot totals are uninspiring to say the least.

Rookie-Corsis

Horvat’s team is controlling the flow of play about 49% of the time, while Shinkaruk is getting absolutely dominated to the tune of ~41% possession. Horvat is shooting at 20%, Shinkaruk a super unsustainable 66%. If that’s not enough, nearly all of their goals have an overriding theme of them being in the right place at the right time. This can be a skill unto itself, but when it’s the key factor in nearly all of your production, maybe there’s a little luck involved?

The unfortunate part about my research was that I couldn’t get information from Jensen’s first game this pre-season. The Danish prospect potted a goal that game, but that’s about all the data I can find. If we look solely at the stats from the two games we do have information for, Jensen’s team has controlled play about 69% of the time with him on the ice. Jensen is also shooting at a more reasonable 11 percent clip.

If any of these three talented prospects has made a case for their inclusion on the opening night roster, it has to be Jensen. It’s unfair of me to play the sample size card when referencing goal totals, and then use Jensen’s possession numbers as an indicator of play. It’s encouraging, though, to see Jensen hold his own when detached from the Sedins hips. That certainly wasn’t the case down the stretch last season.

Making Room

It’s not worth putting any of these players on the team, if the Canucks do so, to only to have them play fourth line minutes. It makes considerably more sense to send them back to the Utica Comets of the AHL, or in Horvat’s case junior. That, of course, is what makes creating a spot for them such a complicated order.

For Horvat, a return to junior isn’t the most appealing prospect to the player or management alike. The general consensus is that he’s accomplished everything he can in the CHL, and that sending him back to Junior would be a wasted year in development. Horvat unfortunately can’t be sent to Utica, because he’s not yet 20. There you have the dichotomy of the Horvat scenario; probably not ready for the NHL and maybe a little too seasoned for junior.

Depending on the severity of Brad Richardson’s injury, the Canucks might have an easier time coming to a decision with their prospect in limbo. Horvat could be a comparable option on the fourth line and as a penalty killer. His style of play lends itself to that role and it would show to the fan base that they’re actually serious about this ‘getting younger’ thing. Again though, is eight minutes on the fourth line of an NHL team better for Horvat’s development than logging considerably more time on ice in junior? I have my doubts.

For Shinkaruk and Jensen, there’s an entirely new set of difficulties that present themselves. Clearing out space in the bottom-six isn’t easy, but it’s a lot more doable than the top-six. Neither Jensen nor Shinkaruk have skill sets suited to the bottom-six. These are players that should ideally be playing with more offensively gifted linemates, in a cushy scoring role. At least in this stage of their careers.

So Who Makes It?

While the Canucks are bound to be short on high-end talent this season, depth is one department where they will not be lacking . This makes it incredibly difficult to accommodate blossoming prospects. It’s never as simple as people would like it to be, and the general manager can’t just “make room”. There are limitations to roster size and leveraging issues abound. 

Why trade away a valuable member of the team’s bottom-six, when any of Jensen, Horvat or Shinkaruk can be sent down waiver free? To say they would have to make a strong case for themselves is an understatement.

Of these players, the only one who’s built a strong case thus far would probably be Jensen. Jensen has been the Canucks best player in the pre-season and has shown some flashes of why he was a first-round selection. His defensive game needs ironing out, but his play in both the neutral and offensive zones leaves very little to be desired.

Jensen doesn’t shy away from the net and is producing shots at a prodigious rate. That said, it’s still the pre-season and without QoC numbers it’s hard to say how much of what Jensen is accomplishing is due to favorable deployments and match ups. On the opposite end of that spectrum, how much of Shinkaruk and Horvat’s struggles without the puck could be conditions related?

The problem is, we just don’t know. Based on what we have seen, and the information we do have though, only one of these three deserves a serious look through the rest of training camp. Ironically enough, it’s probably the player you’ve been hearing the least about: Nicklas Jensen.

  • Agree 100%. The eye test supports the numbers (or vice versa, I guess). The thing that’s impressed me this year as opposed to previous years has been Jensen’s ability to support the breakout and make himself available for an outlet.

    There are still some NZ turnover issues, especially around the offensive blue line that sees him apparently think he has more time than he really does at this level. That can be corrected.

    Jensen / Bonino / Vrbata is an intriguing line combo to try. Distributor in the middle with two shoot-first wingers. So, in other words, the opposite of the Canucks’ traditional second line setup.

  • Great analysis. Love it 🙂

    Jensen is def interesting to watch out there. He’s coughed up a few noticeable turnovers, but he gets on his horse and back checks like a mad man.

    On the other hand, I can think of 1 Horvat turnover. Kid is very strong positionally, he gets better with each game. I would really like to see him play with Higgins (who is also another strong 2 way forward, but is great along the boards and makes simple plays). For whatever reason, Hansen has looked like complete trash so far. Yes it’s way early, but he hasn’t been good for quite a while now, it’s bait concerning. Ideally, Higgins-Horvat-Burrows would be perfect to shelter the kid. But someones gotta help the sheltered Bonino.

  • If the Canucks do keep Jensen, it gives Desjardins some intruiging options for how to balance the line-up. Does he stick Jensen with the twins, in which case the team would look something like:

    Sedin/Sedin/Jensen
    Burrows/Bonino/Vrbata
    Higgins/Vey/Kassian
    Richardson/Matthias/Hansen

    -Pretty balanced, with three lines that should be able to put the puck in the net and a fourth line that can handle defensive-zone deployment without getting crushed.

    Or does he load up the top-six and push Burrows or Kassian down to a checking role, like:

    Sedin/Sedin/Vrbata
    Jensen/Bonino/Kassian
    Burrows/Vey/Higgins
    Richardson/Matthias/Hansen.

    The Canucks lineup going into this season is pretty interesting -not a lot of top-end talent outside of the Sedins (hopefully we’ll be singing a different tune in a year or two if Shinkaruk, Jensen, and Virtanen continue to develop), but a lot of very balanced middle-six talent throughout the rest of the lineup. It’s nice to see that the team has enough depth that they can ice a fourth line that can actually play hockey.

    If Richardson is healthy to start the season and Jensen makes the team, does Vancouver waive Top Sixtito?

    • Not sure you’re allowed to say ‘load up the top-six’ when your 2nd line is Jensen-Bonino-Kassian.

      For those of you rosterbating, it’s worth keeping in mind that Jensen’s improvement in the AHL coincided with being moved back to the right side. Unlikely that he’d be good enough to play LW in the NHL if he can’t in the AHL.

      • For sure – I meant to say “top line” not “top six”. A second line of Jensen/Bonino/Kassian is very unpredictable – if all three live up to their potential, it could be a very good line. If Kassian and Jensen fail to take the next step and the percentages catch up to Bonino, it could be a very *bad* line.

        I would really like to see Kassian spend a little time with Jensen though – two big, young, skilled forwards, one who is more of a playmaker and the other who shoots from everywhere – in theory they should be great together. In practice? Who knows.

    • I can’t believe it, but you’re right, Booth’s foot is broken, again. Can we all collectively phone the Leafs and exhale a long “Told you so”? This is hilarious news. God bless the Leafs, and their endless modern day disaster stories.

  • J.D. Burke

    What exactly is the value of getting a few shots in a couple of preseason games?

    It’s hard to put much stock into these games when the veterans have zero incentive and are simply working themselves into game shape.

    We have 17 games of Jensen last year with mediocre shot totals against proper NHL competition.

    If there’s an injury, sure, he makes sense as the first replacement player.

    But the Canucks actually have 12 NHL calibre forwards when healthy…

  • orcasfan

    Excellent article. Personally I would like to see Jensen make the team, I believe he is ready. I would have the following lines. Sedin/Sedin/Vrbata, they seem to have chemistry, give it 20 and see. Burrows/Bonino/Jensen, I think this line has some real potential and Burrows is very responsible in his own end as is Bonino. Higgins/Vey/Kassian again intriguing. Kassian can protect Vey and they are a good two way group. 4th line, playing 10 minutes. Matthias/Richardson/Hansen. A solid and you can rotate Dorsett into the line anytime and lose nothing. Injuries mean that bottom 4 will move around. I would keep Sestito as 14th forward. and a d of Hamhuis/Bieksa, Edler/Tanev, Sbisa/Weber and Stanton. Corrado is not quite ready, but if you want to keep him send down Sestito. I like the look of this team with decent goal production on three lines.

    • orcasfan

      I agree. Jensen as the 2nd RW could yield good, progressive (in his development) results. Kassian is still a question mark. Will he be able to earn a spot in the top six? And, a lot depends on whether Desjardin chooses to use a particular line (3rd?) as his go-to shut-down line, or whether he spreads out the load.

      I think it will take a dozen games into the regular season before we really see the roster and the lines gel.

  • ikillchicken

    I don’t see Jensen in the top 6. My preference would be to use Burr and Higgins on the second line with Bonino at least to start. That gives you a nice, predictable, two way line that might not blow anyone away offensively but can still contribute reliably at a reasonable rate while eating tough defensive minutes.

    However, that in turn would allow us to put together more of an offensive third line of Jensen, Kassian and Vey. Obviously that line would need to be sheltered a bit. They’ve all got some issues with their defense. But they could also really do some damage offensively and mitigate the second line’s potential lack of raw offense.

    Plus, the 4th line would then have Matthias, Hansen, and Dorsett fighting for two winger spots (competition is good) with Richardson at center (or maybe Horvat if he can prove to be an upgrade). That’s gonna be a nice mix of quality players that can also eat some tough minutes.

  • orcasfan

    Of the 3, I think Horvat is the only one who is physically able to play on the bottom 6. For this reason, I think he will start the season for up to 9 games as 3C (he may or may not stick). Since Kassian has been inconsistent, Vey could take his place as 2RW.
    Shinkaruk and Jensen can easily be moved up and down from Utica so they may get opportunities later based on the play of Kassian and Burrows. I don’t see either of them being slotted anywhere but the top 6.

  • orcasfan

    Enough pre season! Start the season now so I can win my bet that the Canucks will not win the cup this year! I found and idiot who was willing to bet me and it’s going to be in the bank! Yes sir!