Canucks Army Postgame: Kari Let one In (that counted) and Roberto Let Two In

Cam Charron
November 17 2013 09:43PM

 

There was a goal called off in the second period that perhaps shouldn't have been, but nonetheless, the Vancouver Canucks offence was squelched in a loss to the Dallas Stars. The team has now dropped a game against every team in the former Pacific Division in the last 12 days. They scored six goals in those five games.

The result against Dallas was disappointing, but probably not indicative of the way the team played. The Canucks out-shot, out-possessed and out-chanced the Stars from beginning to end, but ran into a hot Kari Lehtonen, who played just as well as Antti Niemi and Frederik Anderson. The entire Nordic region seems to have the Canucks' number, but thankfully when the Canucks play the Florida Panthers on Tuesday they'll be seeing an American goalie… 

…Tim Thomas. Oh, hell. 2-1 the final at the Rog.

THE RUNDOWN

Valeri Nichushkin opened the scoring in the first period. That goal was a big of a sore spot for Vancouver fans, since Nichushkin was selected a pick after the Canucks took Bo Horvat at 9th overall in June. I'm somewhat reminded of a bit from Jim Robson's book Hockey Play-By-Play. Robson recalled a game in Minnesota (the original location of the Stars franchise) where an 18-year-old Trevor Linden sniped a hat-trick in a game that "was to feature the top two picks in the previous June's amateur draft: #1 Mike Modano of the North Stars versus the #2 selection, Trevor Linden of the Canucks. The only problem was that someone forgot to give Modano and the North Stars the script. The centreman had returned to junior hockey after he and Minnesota had been unable to come to terms on a contract, so the stage on this night belonged exclusively to the 18-year-old rookie, Linden.

The final score was 7-6 for Minnesota. The buzz after the game wasn't about the result, but about Linden. Jim remembers the media reaction the next morning: "The Minnesota papers second-guessed North Stars management, asking, 'Did they get the wrong guy? Because our kid is back in junior and won't sign and Vancouver's pick looks great."

Just because I know it's going to be a topic of discussion tomorrow… Nichushkin has still exhibited some growing pains at the NHL-level, obviously. That play was mostly Tyler Seguin's, who fended off a hit from Alex Edler behind the net to find a wide-open man in front. 1-0 Dallas.

The notable event of the second period was the no-goal call:

It's not a particularly good call, but manages to weave its way into the narrative because the game was decided by a goal. It came right at the start of a powerplay, and is just another symptom of the bad luck the team has had with the man advantage to start the season. It's right up there with posts, missed nets, and what-have-yous as Vancouver just can't seem to match the amount of goals they're getting with the amount of chances. Is finishing really a skill we can judge after 20 games? 

Lehtonen made an excellent save off of Kevin Bieksa on the next sequence:

At the start of the third period, down by a goal, the Canucks had a good shift that resulted in a two-on-one against, as two players got caught below the goal-line and the one forward that wasn't, Henrik Sedin, is not as speedy as the young Cody Eakin, who feathered a nice pass across to Erik Cole, henceforth known as "Dallas David Booth". Cole made no mistake, putting the Stars up 2-0.

Henrik scored a powerplay goal seconds later, but the Canucks weren't able to generate any more goals in the third period. Their best chance came with ten seconds left in the game as a scramble gave Henrik another chance—the puck squirted free into the slot—Henrik ultimately couldn't elevate the puck and that was the last attempt on goal the Canucks had.

THE NUMBERS

ExtraSkater.com

Another game that helps the Canucks in the chase for the Corsi Cup playoffs, but doesn't line up with the result on the ice. Corsi isn't good for attempting to explain the past, but it does an admirable job of predicting the future considering hockey is an unpredictable game for the most part. The shooting and save percentages are hurting the Canucks lately more than play is, and while it's discouraging to be getting losses because of some bad luck, it beats the hell out of them coming because of poor play.

John Tortorella split up the Santorelli-Higgins-Burrows line that had been gangbusters for the last couple of weeks. Instead, Santorelli played with Zack Kassian and David Booth (that line was the Canucks' second-best Corsi line on the night, at +14/-7 per ExtraSkater) and Ryan Kesler dropped to the second line to play with Jannik Hansen and Chris Higgins. While Hansen was held without a shot, Kesler had five and Higgins had six—and Daniel Sedin led the Canucks in forwards with ten shots on goal.

The team itself put 43 shots on Lehtonen, and he wound up making 42 saves, some of them pretty good. That's a .977 save percentage, which is about the highest save percentage you can get without a shutout (Carey Price put up a .975 on Vancouver in October and Curtis McElhinney had a .974). Corsi was originally developed by a Buffalo goalie coach looking to measure the overall workload of a goalie, noting that goalies still had to set themselves even on shots that were blocked or missed. Canucks had 83 Corsi events tonight, which is the most they've had this season by quite a bit: the team had 74 against the Oilers and against the Maple Leafs.

I thought the team did quite a number on the Jamie Benn-Tyler Seguin combination, which has been bananas this season. Benn mostly saw time against the Canucks top pair of Chris Tanev and Dan Hamhuis and was held to 11 on-ice unblocked shots at 5-on-5. That's 41.0 over 60 minutes, which is good because on the season Benn's been on the ice for 46.3 unblocked shots per 60. The only Stars line that was able to get much going in the way of possession was Cody Eakin's. Him and Cole were the only two plus Corsi players on the Stars.

SUM IT UP

Vancouver could of, should of won. People like results in the short-term, but a variety of luck factors influence results. The luck factors often even up over a long, long season. The Canucks have now shot 4.5% in the six games since the win over Toronto. People will begin to question overusing the Sedins and Kesler, but they were fine tonight. Good goaltending happens, but it doesn't always happen.

As mentioned above, next up is Tim Thomas and the Florida Panthers.

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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 Dirk Stetson
November 17 2013, 09:54PM
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"Vancouver could of, should of won."

Could have. Should have.

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#3 NM00
November 17 2013, 10:03PM
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Gutsy...

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#4 Wetcoaster
November 17 2013, 10:14PM
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I'm okay just as long as the stats work out in the end like they did for the 2012 Kings. That's how it works, right? Right?

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#5 Ruprecht
November 17 2013, 10:16PM
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NM00 wrote:

Gutsy...

Like a pile of roadkill.

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#6 Wake up goalie
November 17 2013, 10:30PM
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So how long till October Luongo disappears? It's almost December.

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#7 NM00
November 17 2013, 11:03PM
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@Ruprecht

This run of losses could be a blessing in disguise.

Management may have to open itself up to a Holmgrenesque risk just to make the playoffs...

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#8 Haka
November 17 2013, 11:42PM
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@Wake up goalie

Really? Luongo has been excellent so far this season. He hasn't been the problem. 4 goals for in 4 games is the problem.

Generally if Luongo keeps the opposition to 2 goals, we should be winning most of those games.

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#9 Brent
November 17 2013, 11:48PM
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Wow, I guess I just proved that the comments are moderated! Lets try again:

Screw the Corsi/fenwick! We need some goals!

Or Luongo needs to stand on his head more. Not like he played bad, but he does seem to be getting out-goaltended lately. My biggest concern is he is starting to flop onto his belly again. Did it on the overtime goal last game and the two on one tonight. I think the problem before was him being to far forward on his skates, so when he moves he starts to go forward.

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#10 Ruprecht
November 18 2013, 12:50AM
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NM00 wrote:

This run of losses could be a blessing in disguise.

Management may have to open itself up to a Holmgrenesque risk just to make the playoffs...

They've pretty much exhausted all other avenues. I cringe at the thought that we might have to give up something to get something. Weird to see so many shots with no results. I mean, there's a point where your shooting can make a good goalie look great. I don't think it's coming off our sticks fast enough, nor are we picking the right spots or shooting positions. It's just kind of peppering and hoping. I think you're right though, perhaps been right all along, look at the elite teams and it's clear we need something to be a legit contender. Goals have to come a little easier, and 30 seconds our of the 4th line isn't helping anybody. Feck.

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#11 GeezMoney
November 18 2013, 08:37AM
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Brent wrote:

Wow, I guess I just proved that the comments are moderated! Lets try again:

Screw the Corsi/fenwick! We need some goals!

Or Luongo needs to stand on his head more. Not like he played bad, but he does seem to be getting out-goaltended lately. My biggest concern is he is starting to flop onto his belly again. Did it on the overtime goal last game and the two on one tonight. I think the problem before was him being to far forward on his skates, so when he moves he starts to go forward.

Unfortunately, corsi and fenwick and doppleganger are the stats everyone is relying on to prove they know the game better than others. But they seem to me to be overvalued.

Reality check: Corsi King David Booth was invisible last night. He was at least expected to bring secondary scoring to the line up. But he is utterly useless in that role. And since he doesn't kill penalties, doesn't play against the opponent's top lines and isn't as fast as he once was, I'm not entirely sure what he brings to the team.

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#13 James M
November 18 2013, 11:23AM
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What's the best way of quantifying shot quality?

It annoys me that a poor backhand shot from the perimeter is counted equally as a clean one-timer from the slot.

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#14 Ruprecht
November 18 2013, 11:28AM
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GeezMoney wrote:

Unfortunately, corsi and fenwick and doppleganger are the stats everyone is relying on to prove they know the game better than others. But they seem to me to be overvalued.

Reality check: Corsi King David Booth was invisible last night. He was at least expected to bring secondary scoring to the line up. But he is utterly useless in that role. And since he doesn't kill penalties, doesn't play against the opponent's top lines and isn't as fast as he once was, I'm not entirely sure what he brings to the team.

They aren't bad if you've missed the game and need the Coles notes. But speak more about tendencies than they do about systems. It's obvious what Booth brings, revenue for hunting tour guides (real hunters), an unwavering faith in God, and the monthly injury. What are the odds he's injured next, and final, buyout period? Now that's a stat I WANT to know.

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#15 Origamirock
November 18 2013, 12:21PM
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I'm expecting the fans and journalists abandoning ship, but I really hope the team and the players don't get frustrated and give up on the process. Scoring and Tom Sestito aside, they've been outplaying opponents on most nights. The only game so far where they've been *really* outplayed was against San Jose on Oct 10.

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#16 PB
November 18 2013, 12:42PM
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Another game in which we generally outplayed the opposition but couldn't catch a break and have some puck luck and had a pretty awful call by the officials. That said, I found the third period to be a pretty big letdown, especially the final 2-3 minutes. I know how much Tortorella likes Bieksa's "swashbuckling" style but his lack of urgency in getting the puck up the ice sometimes drives me crazy. WIth a minute and a half left in the game and the goalie pulled he's sort of lazily drifting back in his own zone. I also agree with someone else who posted in an earlier thread, Tortorella should keep the Santorelli-Burrows-Higgins line together, throw Kassian with the Twins, and run Kesler between Booth and Hansen. I love the energy of that second line and Kesler plays such a different game than them that I think it diminishes it.

Also, that attempted slapshot/wipeout by Tanev is only hilarious because the Stars didn't score. Yikes.

As an aside, how does Vernon Fiddler demand a trade? Perhaps Sestito will do the same with us? One can only dream.

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#17 Fred-65
November 18 2013, 03:40PM
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Attending the game last night and the called off goal and frankly officiating in general really encourages a guy to dig into his pocket and buy more tickets, It was disgrace the longer I watch the more I see the resemblance to WWF. As I heard one fan on 1040 today mentioned the next time I save up for a game ticket it'll be a Seahawks ticket. Seems to me the officiating for a start is better in the NFL and that counts for me. Nothing worse than walking out of a game asking yourself and at the end of the day why did I spend that money.

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#18 PB
November 18 2013, 07:29PM
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@Fred-65

I'm not sure you're going to get any relief watching NFL (or really any other major league sport). Bad calls are a fact of life, it's not as if they just happen to the Canucks or just appeared in the last few seasons.

They didn't lose that game because of that call. It didn't help, but that wasn't the whole story.

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#19 GeezMoney
November 18 2013, 09:31PM
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Cam Charron wrote:

"Corsi King" David Booth also had a -11.9 Relative CF% and has been a negative so far this season.

Reality check: Corsi as a team stat is more predictive of how a team will do in future games than winning percentage... by no small margin. Simply isolating a few instances where that isn't the case doesn't prove your point.

Well then, there ya go. Can we stop praising his game then? Love this blog. Hate the Corsi King (not as a person, but as a failed Gillis acquisition).

And Cam, if Corsi is predictive to how a team might perform, than why do writers ascribe it to individual players? I think the stat in question might be more useful if it were written in that context, rather than "David Booth's corsi is yada, yada, yada..." in order to show that his individual game is set to turn around.

Reality check: :P

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