Advanced stats aren’t the future.
They are the here and now.
One of the most used advanced stats is the Corsi percentage. A Corsi percentage is determined off the shots attempted vs shot attempts against. For example, if the Canucks attempted 20 shots and had 30 shot attempts against their Corsi percentage for that game would be 40%.
Though Corsi may be a better way to draw away more information it isn’t the answer to the winner in every hockey game. Goaltenders, shot selection and limitless other variables are typically the determining factor of who wins a hockey game.
These “Snap Shots” articles are typically centred around some interesting stats that I find and want to put into writing. Today I found something interesting about the Canucks and their Corsi percentage.
The Canucks were 23rd in the NHL when it came to Corsi percentage, just ahead of the Anaheim Ducks and Ottawa Senators. Their goaltending is a huge reason why they are a bubble playoff team. You can see this, even more, when you look at the 5-on-5 scoring chances.
At 5-on-5 the Canucks were able to muster up 1456 scoring chances while allowing 1620.
According to their expected goals for (xGF) they were expected to score 128.06 goals this season at 5-on-5. They finished their 69 game season with 14 more goals than expected, putting up 142 goals.
The interesting stat that I wanted to bring up was the three most one-sided Corsi games of the season for the Canucks. The three most dominant games of the Canucks season according to Corsi percentage was: November 16th against the Colorado Avalanche (66.23 CF%), February 16th against the Anaheim Ducks (62.75 CF%) and November 11th against the Ducks or January 14th against the Winnipeg Jets (both games the Canucks had 62.50 CF%).
The common occurrence between those three dominant games for the Canucks was they all resulted in losses.
It’s a funny stat, the fact that they lost their most dominant games is such a “Canucks” thing to do.
Now to the flip side of the joke.
Let’s look at the three games where they were dominated in the Corsi percentage: November 21st against the Nashville Predators (27.16 CF%), February 12th against the Chicago Blackhawks (30.12 CF%) and December 28th against the Los Angeles Kings (30.48 CF%).
Can you guess the common occurrence in those three games in which the Canucks were dominated?
You guessed it, they won all three of those games.
Continue to observe advanced stats as you please, some live by them while others want them to be fired into the sun and let the players play the game. There is value to advanced stats and they can be used to help you determine a lot of different aspects of a hockey season due to a bigger sample size of data.
Just remember that you need to balance eye-test and analytics to have the most informed decision.
For example, Quinn Hughes had a negative CF% when he was away from Elias Pettersson, but Hughes was still very good when he was away from Pettersson.
You can use advanced stats to twist your opinion to be correct. Therein lies the frightening part about the mainstreaming of advanced stats.