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Photo Credit: NHL.com

WWYDW: Offer Sheets

Free agency is looming, which means teams are gearing up to sign the best players of this year’s unrestricted free agent class to deals that are likely to cost them significant money and term.

There’s an additional wrinkle to free agency this year, however. A lot of cap-strapped teams this year will be looking to sign big-name restricted free agents like Mitch Marner and Kyle Connor. This leaves those teams wide open to be targeted by General Managers willing to pay the necessary compensation to sign those players to offer sheets.

The Canucks currently have all the picks required to sign any player they so choose to an offer sheet, but the compensation is steep for any player commanding over $4.227438 in salary.

Is there anyone you would like to see the Canucks sign to an offer sheet? Why or why not?

Last week I asked: Should the NHL keep the offside review or get rid of it? 

Goon: 

You used to not be able to pass over two lines. The NHL was wise to get rid of that rule. Hell, you used to not be able to pass forward. What a dreadful idea.

Just get rid of offsides entirely. If teams want to play high-risk, cherry-picking hockey, let them. It’s stupid that the league keeps calling these goals back because one guy had his toe ahead of the puck while entering the offensive zone.

The NHL should be trying to reduce stoppages in play, increase offense, and improve flow. Get rid of offsides. They serve no purpose except to slow the game down and discourage risk-taking.

truthseeker:

I don’t know. There are still enough situations where a defensive team that’s tired did end up clearing the zone and deserves that whistle, but the refs miss it and it ends up a goal after said defensive team is warn out. I like the review for that. You can argue that if the off side comes way before the goal then it’s “against the spirit of the rule” but that ignores the fatigue factor of the defensive players.

To me this is just another example of there being no perfect solution. You can’t have gray areas either and let the refs make “judgement calls”. It needs to be black and white in this case. I say leave it in. Better to take away a goal you didn’t deserve, even if it is sometimes a “technicality”, than give a goal that wasn’t deserved.

If they wanted to experiment with no off-sides at all, I’d be interested to see the results.

Billy Pilgrim:

Let referees make the call. Video review is ruining sports by delaying games and robbing fans of great plays. Review goals if you must. But everything else should fall into the realm of acceptable human error, which is what sports is all about. While I know it is “life or death” for many fans, it’s a freaking game! A missed call is no more problematic than a bad bounce off a stanchion that leads to a goal.

The outrage created by perceived unfairness is part of fandom. As Canucks fans, we all know it and relish it. Let’s accept it and embrace the human frailty that is the essence of sport.

wojohowitz:

What they really need is a quicker decision, like an off-ice but in-house arbitrator working within a time frame of 60 – 90 seconds, rather than a `war room` committee debating the issue. How long is a commercial time-out; 90 seconds and no complaints?

Robson Street:

I think I know the answer but I’d like to be sure. Give me some time to look over a few examples from these playoffs in my monitor and I’ll get back to you.

  • The fact you would have to overpay to pry these guys away from their present teams means the asset cost would have to be reduced compared to what they would cost in a straight trade. The only guys you could get at a deep enough discount to warrant the over pay seem to be Kappanen & Johannsson where you could likely steal one of these guys for the cost of cash and 2nd round compensation. The problem being Benning seems to have a great working relationship with Dubas having been given the small gift of Leivo. Toronto is likely going to need some help alleviating their cap crunch and it may be in Benning’s best interest to see if he can get more deals from Dubas to ease their pain as opposed to putting kerosene on the bridge and tossing the match crossing the offer sheet bridge. I’m not opposed to the offer sheet but there’s more than one way to skin a cat and working with Dubas to acquire some of their surplus would be my first instinct before the scorched earth method.
    As for the rest, without a tonne of research, I don’t think the compensation is worth the cap structure issues guys like Connor, Marner, McAvoy, et al might cause.

    • Well said. Heck I would even go as high as a 2nd and a 4th in a trade for either one of Kappanen or Johannsson. Realistically the Leafs can only afford one after the Marner extension, and they would be getting more than if they wait for the inevitable offer sheet to come.

      • the leafs cannot even afford to sign Marner at this point and probably need to move out at least $6M just to sign him and fill out their roster with base salary players. They need to go all in on Marner or move him and sign the other RFA’s and in reality probably cannot do both. Kappanen will likely be offer sheeted (and be asking) for about $4M and (assuming they sign Marner) I don’t see the leafs being able to free up that much cap space even if Marleau agrees to waive his NMC.

        That said Kappanen likely will not be back in TO but is he really worth a 2nd? He’s a decent player but his stats are a little inflated based on line mates thus is overrated. He definitely is not a play driver and is just a good complementary player. In a vacuous he is probably worth a low 2nd but with the defensive prospect gap that needs to be filled he’s not the priority with the dmen that will be available in this years 2nd round. Next years draft class is rumored to be very deep so moving a 2nd would probably be a bad plan. You also have to consider the amount of middle six players this team already has and the fact that although he would be an upgrade it wouldn’t huge.

        The only way Kappanen makes sense is if we get him as the payment for taking a one year contract to free up cap room for TO or we package assets that we can easily afford to lose like middle six forwards, hutton if the plan ends up being not to sign him.

  • Benning would likely get a better deal — and maintain better relations with the other managers — by trading for those players after they’ve been re-signed by their original clubs. If those clubs have cap space issues then they will be motivated sellers.

    It would also reduce the risk of retaliation-in-kind down the road.

    • I don’t think that’s true. If I’m a GM and you offered me a 1st, 2nd, & 3rd for any of McAvoy, Connor, Trouba, Aho, Rantanen Tkachuk, Laine or Meier I would turn it down. You think these organization would give them to you for less?!?! No chance. The problem more lies with the over payments you’d have to make to get the team to not match and the animosity it would cause.
      When you start looking at the best teams who would be giving up late round picks to acquire proven 1st line talent, you don’t think Nashville would jump at only giving up their 1st, 2nd & 3rd for Aho, Laine or Tkachuk?! In a heartbeat they’d make that trade. It’s Carolina, Winnipeg & Calgary that would say no!

      • If I’m a GM and you offered me a 1st, 2nd, & 3rd for any of McAvoy, Connor, Trouba, Aho, Rantanen Tkachuk, Laine or Meier I would turn it down.

        The Canucks aren’t likely going to get most of those players under any circumstances. If they offered sheeted one of them, the manager would simply match the offer — and then start planning his revenge.

        The type of player the Canucks might be able to pry loose at a reasonable price from a cap-stressed club is a good but not elite player who’s fighting to get ice time on a talented team.

          • A cap-stressed club might be prepared to let a decent young player go at very affordable price. See Leivo, Josh.

          • yep teams do it all the time, specially if they can also move out salary to do so. Anyone who thinks the Leafs keep Marner without having to give away assets for cap space simply cannot do the math or hasn’t been paying attention in the cap era. Also there are more desperate cap crunched teams this year than ever as RFA’s continue to cash in bigger and earlier. But hey maybe they just move Marner. There are going to be similar situations in Vegas, TB, Washington, Jets Etc. Either these teams are giving away big names or they are paying teams to give them cap relief, this is a fact. As much as teams want to get as much for assets as possible teams want real assets for providing cap relief too. These teams are going to be desperate and increasingly so as we move further into the off season and are the ones that actually have to do something. A team sitting there with cap space can simply keep it or use it on FA, they have no clock or pressure, where the cap strapped teams are totally under the gun.

          • A cap-stressed club might be prepared to let a decent young player go at very affordable price.

            True but I recall Leivo was an issue with hitting the contract or roster limit, not cap space.

  • Avoid the inevitable retaliation that comes with an offer sheet (Mike Gillis says hello!) and instead work with the teams up against the cap to secure a win-win trade.

  • Kappanen is a prime target

    He’s approaching his prime, a great skater, kills penalties, fills a soft spot on the roster, and is definitely worth a second round pick

    • he had 44 points playing with 90+ point centers, he likely would have been a 33 point player at best in Vancouver last year. He’s a complementary middle six player and the only reason I won’t say he’s overrated is he’s 22 and still has a few years of possible development. Is he worth a 2nd, depends or his cap hit and who we don’t end up picking with that 2nd. I can think of 5 or six defenceman that will likely be there at 40 this year that I’d prefer over Kappanen and next years draft is supposed to be deeper.

      • He worked his way up the line-up. He put up as many even strength goals and points as Horvat. He’s younger. This was his first full season and he’s still going to get better. If he was on the Canucks he could have also got a taste of the 18 PP points Horvat did

        I’m not trying to sell the kid as the next Filip Forsberg or Mike Hoffman but he is definitely trending to be a top 6 winger that can slot in on a top line. Is he worth a 2nd round pick? What? Of course he is. Do you have any idea how few 40th overall players never even become NHL regulars? never mind put up 20 goal season by 22 without even getting PP time

        • This is the truth. Whether you prefer to give up the gamble that is your 2nd round pick to acquire him is another story. He is absolutely worth a 2nd round pick, as speering major correctly points out, damn near anyone who can stick in the league for 3+ years and get decent ice time is worthy of a 2nd round pick.

          Draft picks are more valuable today than in the past due to the salary cap, free agency rules, etc., not because they are any less of a gamble than history has shown.

  • Offer Kapanen 7 years at 4 million that is worth a 2nd rounder. I dont know what Brandon Carlo would be asking but he would also be worth that contract. If we can land a guy like either of those then it is worth a 2nd.

    We arent far enough along to go big on a guy like marner or connor.

    We should also be asking teams for bad contracts who are needing to sign some of the above players. Would marleau come over for nothing then flip him at the deadline. Deals like that would also be an option or both as long as those deals are 1 or 2 years.

    We should also be trying to shed salary so that we could add a couple of cap dumps.

    What could we get from vegas for taking on Clarkson? Could we go our 2nd for their 1st and clarkson or miller and clarkson for a 7th rounder?

    This management group needs to get their act together and start forward thinking to try and get better in the future and every year they prove they dont have a clue how to build a team and that every year all teams add players.

    • Offering Kapanen $4 million over 7 years would result in an Offer Sheet AAV of $5.6 million, according to Capfriendly’s offer sheet calculator. The AAV of any Offer Sheet of 5, 6 or 7 years is calculated by dividing the total value of the contract, in this case $28 million, over 5 years. This would result in us forfeiting next year’s first and a third. Kapanen would most likely prefer something 5 years and under anyways, as he is scheduled to become a UFA at 27.

  • I don’t see an offer sheet that makes sense even if you don’t care about the relationship damage it would cost with other GM;s. All the players that look to be worth offer sheeting at more than $2M are on teams in tight cap situations. With that in mind if there is a player that you truly want ($2-4M range) there are trades that can be made instead and a likely hood that could cost you a lower pick plus a player/prospect that is not truly in your plans. pick #40 will also likely net a player the scouting staff sees as a late 1st round talent and would likely be more valuable than the player your looking to acquire.

    There might be players under $2M that are worth it but it’s unlikely the team would not match.

    As for players over $4M, there just simply isn’t any that are worth the cost let alone at this stage in a rebuild.

  • I really do not like the offer sheet route, injuries to Pete or Boeser on top of the injuries to Edler and Tanev (kinda gonna miss some games) would put the Canucks in a high lotto position next year.
    Kapanen would not go 7X4. Nobody goes 7X4.
    I would rather target Morrissey or Lowry on ‘peg. I think Connor is awesome, but we can’t do this.
    There are some interesting options with Vegas and some options in Chicago.
    Keep it open.

  • Because so many clubs are in cap crunch difficulties teams like Vancouver May have plenty of opportunities without proposing offer sheets to anyone to improve their roster for next season. If Benning can land a much younger player and it not hurt the cap too much instead of getting an older, more expensive “name” player then they’ll be better off IMHO. I mention Seattle a lot because the VC have to protect as many as their young guns as possible in anticipation of this and moves Benning makes even now will impact how that expansion draft turns out. Forget dinosaurs taking up cap and term. I think GMJB will get something good with a just an uncostly trade.

  • Next year is when the Canucks should make a move in a trade or offer sheet. Next year with the expansion the prices on players should be cheaper. Canucks also shouldn’t tie up a protection spot with an acquisition this year. Acquire picks and build through the draft.

  • The price for a Connor or a Marner is just way too high. Kapanen could probably be had for a similar price to that which you’d have to pay in an offer sheet scenario anyway and his cap hit would probably end up lower, so why generate the aggro? If (as someone else suggested) he could be had for a 2nd and a 4th, the Canucks could recoup picks in those rounds from assets they’re thinking of shifting anyway and while Kapanen isn’t going to be a superstar, he’s already a solid middle six player and if that’s what your second round pick turns into that a big win

  • There’s an old expression in sales; cheap,fast, good – pick two. Offersheets can get you a good player fast (in theory), but the contract and compensation isn’t cheap. If you’re team that is building to a playoff team, likely through the draft (cheap, good?, not fast), this approach is not for you.