CanucksArmy Roundtable: Over-Unders On Pettersson Production

EP, Dekey Pete, the Alien, whatever you prefer to call him, Elias Pettersson has had a phenomenal start to his NHL career. With seven points in his first four games, Pettersson is outpacing some rather notable Swedish names to start his career.

Source: Sportsnet Broadcast

It would be pretty greedy to expect this rate of production to continue throughout the season, but Pettersson has already demonstrated that he can produce at the NHL level. So the question becomes, how many points will he manage by the end of the regular season?

With that in mind, I came up with what I think is a reasonable over-under for Pettersson’s goals and points at the end of the season: 25 goals, 60 points. That’s no small feat, and would put him among rookie leaders in most years. I’ve posed this question to the CanucksArmy staff, and their answers will make up the 2018-19 NHL season’s first Roundtable of the year. Let’s see where they’d be placing their money.

Cory Hergott

I will take the over… if only by a little. I’ve had 23 goals and 38 assists rattling around in my head, giving him 61 points on the season. I feel like he should be able to pick up his share of points with the man advantage this season. I don’t expect him to keep up with his ridiculous early pace, and I don’t want to put “too high” of expectations on him either, but he isn’t looking out of place at this level so far. I’d be thrilled to see him put up 20+30 this year, so anything more than that would be gravy, in my eyes.

Stephan Roget

I will take the over. Pettersson already had six points in his first three games, which is 1/10th of the way to 60. I don’t expect him to keep up such a ridiculous pace, but his hot start means that he can survive a slump or two and still put up some impressive totals. Obviously, a major injury would result in lesser numbers, but that is impossible to predict. If healthy all season, I have Pettersson at around 30 goals and 70 points.

Jackson McDonald

I’ll take the under if only for the reason that I don’t want to be disappointed with a 50-point rookie season.

60 points would have placed Pettersson firmly among the league’s top line players last year, and even though he only needs another 53 over the next 78 games I’m not prepared to bet on him eclipsing that total. For him to do so, he’d not only have to keep up a .7 point per game pace over the rest of the season, but he’d have to get the minutes do so and avoid injury. A lot of things would have to go right this season, and the cynic in me is conditioned to think something will probably go wrong at some point.

I’m happy to be wrong on this one. I’d much rather set expectations lower than they ought to be and be pleasantly surprised than set them high and damper the hype on what’s sure to be an impressive season regardless of how many points he puts up.

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Ryan Hank

First of all, have we moved on from Boeser already? Just kidding. I will take the over on goals and I predict 28. He has a good shot but there has to be a point where he slows down a bit. His assists will more than makeup for that and points I’m taking the under at 59 points. As this team moves forward, there’s a chance Brock gets put on his line and he can pump Boeser for a few goals. Nikolay Goldobin is also going to be the benefactor of a handful as well. To recap: over on goals, under on points and just right where we want him… in a Canucks jersey.

Cole Marton

I’m going to take the over on this one.

It’s not that I would be disappointed if he didn’t hit 60 points, but Pettersson has a rare combination of offensive talents that tell me he can perform at a high level. 7 points in 4 games won’t be sustainable, but only needing 53 points in 78 is something that is clearly in his reach. His ability on the power-play, coupled with the fact it seems he’s getting the most out of Nikolay Goldobin and will be receiving more offensive zone starts this year as he develops, leads me to the thinking Pettersson will put up at least 30 goals and over 60 points on the year.

Janik Biechler

So far, Pettersson’s been proving me wrong. I watched him a lot in Swedish league and national team play last season and couldn’t help but notice he often disappeared at five on five, and that’s been a concern for me. I never had a doubt he’d be a star player in Vancouver eventually, he just didn’t have me convinced he could be one right out of the gate. That said, his tendency to disappear sometimes is still there and I thought the Tampa game was a perfect example of that. The thing is, though, that even in a “bad” game where he’s barely noticeable, he’ll still have at least two or three flashy plays that make you think “wow, this kid is legit.”

So, to answer the question, I’m still sure there will be stretches where he disappears and his three outstanding plays a night won’t get him on the score sheet and he’ll have some scoring droughts through an 82-game season. However, he’ll also be leaned on as one of the Canucks’ go-to guys, and he’ll have some multi-point nights as well. I’m expecting a bit of an up-and-down season with mostly ups and, if everything goes right, he’ll exceed 60 points, whether that’s with 25 goals or fewer.

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Jeremy Davis

I know I’m usually the type to advocate for reasonable expectations (like that responsible Jackson McDonald did above), but there are three important factors to consider here:

  • I am still a fan and subject to occasional unreasonable bouts of optimism;
  • I have been a Pettersson super fan since his draft year; and
  • I like to live dangerously.

With that, I’m taking the over, on both goals and points. Not only is Pettersson clearly the most talented player on the Canucks roster already, he’s also going to get a boatload of opportunity. It only took Travis Green a couple of games to completely release the reins on this kid (once it became apparent that Pettersson is also dynamite defensively), and there are no conceivable indications that his ice time is going to go back below the 10-minute mark that we saw in the season opener.

I’m going to go ahead and suggest 29 goals and 44 assists for 73 points this season.

So what about you? Are you taking the over, or the under? Place your bets and your predictions in the comments below, and enjoy the ride.

  • I’ll take the over, but as Jackson said, we should definitely not be disappointed if he comes in in the 50-range. That’s still phenomenal production from a 19-year-old in the NHL. If he comes in around a point a game pace, which seems possible, that’s probably be the greatest rookie season ever by a Canuck.

  • Ronning4ever

    Pettersson played 83 games total last year if you include the SHL, champions league, Worlds, juniors, etc. He put up 82 points. While I’d normally be worried about a guy going from 40 games to 80, he played a lot…also in the playoffs.

    Unless he starts getting hard matched by top lines I honestly think this kid is going to hit a PPG.

  • bobdaley44

    This kid will be the best all-time Canuck when his careers over. He reminds me of Datsyuk but with a better shot. Really impressed with his puck pursuit, defensive play and back checking. What a steal. Gotta give Benning his due on this one.

  • Bud Poile

    Witnessing the most cerebrally talented rookie since Gradin has been a real treat thus far.
    EP is gifted beyond expectations with a calming presence both on and off the ice.
    I can only wish him health and success as a Canuck.


    I agree with JD!
    Not only has EP produced but he has won over Travis, which many rookies don’t. This kid will get major ice time in offensive situations and he is pretty hard to get a solid lick on. Injury is always a factor but some guys find collisions, I’m looking at you Tanev and some guys have vision and quickness.
    I say 32 goals 38 apples…. nice round 70pts

  • Defenceman Factory

    I’ll take the over. I just don’t see there being that many games where he doesn’t get a point.

    Down the stretch, perhaps against a team with injuries, he is going to be a mismatch for someone and put up a hat trick . He will have one 5 point night (I hope it’s against the Oilers). I’d like to be more optimistic about his assists but that would take an upgrade on his wingers.

    34 goals and 64 points.

  • El Kabong

    Before the season started I predicted 50 points, with a 20 goal 30 assist breakdown.
    Now that I’ve seen him play against NHLers and with 7 points in 4 games I’m going to aim a little higher and go with 72 points, 30 goals and 42 assists.
    Either way I’m glad he’s a Canucks and I get to cheer for him for the foreseeable future.
    Just wait until he has some legit young talent on the blue line.

  • Another interesting stat is that Pettersson is 18/33 (54.5%) on faceoffs. Almost as good as Nolan Patrick (23/40, 57.5%) and better than Nico Hischier (14/33, 42.4%). Although Pettersson is only 4th in terms of total draws for the Canucks, it will be interesting to see if he can sustain the pace.

  • Rodeobill

    He is still adjusting to life and NHL hockey, team mates, systems, etc. and is getting more confident each game, but… teams will also start zeroing in on him as the season goes on and playing him harder. So, although I don’t expect him to keep up this pace, I predict he gets the calder and the over on those numbers (barring injury).

  • apr

    Go big or go home. 112 points, Art Ross, and Calder running away. Hart goes to Matthews who finishes with 10 less points because Leafs make playoffs and it will be fun to see him hold TO in contract ransom all summer.

  • ned

    Over on both goals and points. He can snipe as well as Brock if not better and he has the ability to make his teammates better with his vision and hockey iq, so he should pick up many assists as well. I’m setting expectations quite high, but I also don’t think point per game is too far fetched either with how talented he is. I’m gonna go with somewhere in the ballpark of 32 goals and 50 assists. ?

  • TD

    I’ll go with the over with 33 goals and 49 assists for 82 points, if he plays 82 games. I side with Jeremy on this as a fan and think Jackson copped out. He basically admitted he thinks Pettersson will get more, but picked a low number to guarantee he’s not disappointed. I’m sure this won’t last, but the Canucks are averaging 4 goals a game so far…

  • truthseeker

    Seems pretty good so far. I’ll take the over on that. 60 points is fairly typical for rookie scoring leaders over the past 5 years or so. I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t hit that number.

  • canuckfan

    Opposing coaches will have a problem with coverage against Canucks will they cover Brock or Elias and will have to make sure they don’t take penalties as then they will both be on the ice at the same time.
    I think he can get between 75 and 90 points and yes of course he will get more coverage as the season goes on but he has the smarts to adjust and come up with new moves.

  • Kanuckhotep

    Predictions made of any kind is precarious business. However Petey getting a point in every game he plays looks quite reasonable. Jim Hendrix should have had such magical hands and Einstein his IQ (excuse the metaphors) in terms of hockey ability this kid has. Every time he touches the puck this blogger is hopeful.

  • Chuck-ey

    I’ve been impressed with him so far but I’m taking the under and I’ll tell you why.

    Much like Boeser, I think with zero protection around him (ala Gino for Bure) this slight young man will be keyed on and get taken out, either by one of the physical Cali teams or a thug like Tom Wilson, Kadri, Lucic or a superstar warrior like Matty Tkachuk/Brad Marchand and will therefore not finish the season. I hope i’m off base, but that’s my gut feeling and as regular readers will know, i rarely get proven wrong.

      • Defenceman Factory

        I can keep track. He is wrong about virtually everything. He is a troll and is wrong on purpose to annoy people. That is how he amuses his sick little mind.

        • Bud Poile

          The basic instincts of mankind doesn’t change.
          Mentally sick men often coupled with spite or revenge,hampered with possible head injuries carrying a club in their hands is always a potential disaster.
          The thought of instant retribution being applied to their proclivities is their only caution.
          Hiring men that will protect healthy,talented players is still necessary.
          The game is changing,mean,sick minds will not.

          • Compare the murder rates in modern nation-states under the rule of law to any place and time in history where people enforced the social contract with retribution and revenge. You’re claiming the latter is the only way, and it’s clearly not – we’ve seen that from how effective enforcing the rule of law in modern nation states has been, and we’ve seen that over the past decade in hockey, as fighting and hits to the head have been *massively* reduced, not by putting more thugs on the ice, but by getting them off.
            This isn’t the same game as it was in the 80s and 90s and that’s *massively* for the better. I don’t take any pleasure from seeing 19-year-old kids getting brained on the ice every night, and am glad that kind of garbage is finally being removed from the game. It’s frankly sick that you keep advocating for it, and can’t recognize that it has no place in the modern NHL.

  • Fortitude00

    Injuries on this team are real. Last year only three players played every game if you count Daniel with missing 1 game, the year prior only 5 guys played the whole season, the year before only two with another coming close, the year prior to that 3 and 3 or 4 came close. The on constant in all those years were the Sedins being the iron men. Past the Sedins conditioning has been a noticeable problem on this team. It will be difficult for EP to play a full season so under is more likely. Canucks should look at bringing back the Sedins to teach these youngsters how to train properly because clearly there is an issue with this team.

  • argoleas

    This summer I predicted 65 (25g, 40a). Although now I expect that to go up a bit, say closer to 70, that’s the ballpark I will stick with. And that’s assuming full 82 games.

  • jaybird43

    I’m going to say if he misses 10 games or less, I’ll take the over at 65 points at the low end and 82 points (and probably missing only a few games) as the ceiling.

  • Chuck-ey

    Remember when the two Philly players MDZ and Manning deliberately (and admitted it) sandwiched McJesus into the end boards seperating his shoulder… just sayin.

    As the stakes get higher desperate teams like Anaheim (Kesler, Getzlaf, Perry) won’t think twice about slamming EP out of their way. That’s how the league has and always will be.