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Photo Credit: Matthew Henderson

Monday Mailbag Part 2: Trading Sam Gagner, a Spot for Dahlen, and Blogging Platforms

I would guess that the market for Sam Gagner at the moment is virtually nonexistent. With the season he’s coming off of, at his salary, with another two years left on his deal, I think he’s a tough sell to any team looking for someone to put them over the edge. Even at half the salary, I think most teams would be more interested in leaving a roster spot open for a young player than in taking a chance on a player who showed next to nothing last season. Their best chance at moving him will be at this or next year’s deadline. Given the familiarity, I could see Columbus possibly having some interest. I wouldn’t expect much in return, though. A late pick, maybe.

The roster spot alone makes option 2 preferable. I’d like to see Adam Gaudette make the team without having to risk losing one of Nikolay Goldobin or Brendan Leipsic. They’d clearly lost a step last season, but I still think the Sedins would have provided more value together than Beagle and Roussel, and certainly wouldn’t be eating up cap and roster space over the next four seasons.

I’ve been on board the Petrus Palmu hype train since he was drafted, and think highly of Jonah Gadjovich and Jonathan Dahlen, so I wasn’t surprised the Baby Canucks had three forward lines that could dominate. I think what surprised me the most was how engaged Pettersson looked defensively. He took a few shifts to get going in the offensive zone, but looked committed on the backcheck immediately. His line got stuck in their own zone a couple times and he’s still very raw, but the effort was there and that’s a great sign. He looks like he really wants to prove he can play down the middle.

The day 1 performance by the Okanagan Events Centre DJ was as dominant as the performance on the ice. His playlist felt like it was pulled directly from the soundtrack of an early-2000s-era EA NHL game with a mixture of pop punk, hip hop, and alternative rock. The day two performance was a bit of a letdown, but full credit to him/her for managing to pull out the themes to Seinfeld, The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, That ’70s Show, and Frasier over the course of the weekend.

We can only hope.

He made a great individual effort to score his goal in game two but overall he didn’t really stand out. I can’t say I’m hugely familiar with him, (the Victoria Royals are my hometown team so I don’t see the Giants as often,) but based on his numbers and profile I don’t think there’s much there.

There was an apple tree in the backyard, I had one but most of them became applesauce.

They just don’t have the room. Given the current makeup of the roster, I can’t even see Gaudette making the team and he’s much higher up the depth chart. That’s probably not the end of the world in Dahlen’s case, though. I liked what I saw but he still needs to develop. If he has a good season in Utica I’d like to see him get an extended audition after the deadline, assuming some trades are made.

I started with WordPress and that’s what I’d recommend to anyone starting out. It’s reasonably intuitive and whatever you can’t figure out is easy enough to google. WordPress Pro has pretty much become the industry standard at this point, so it’ll make transitioning to a professional website easy in the future if you make it to that point. I had to use a variety of different platforms for my digital communication program and didn’t like any as much as WordPress. I found Blogger/Blogspot to be too cookie-cutter and while WIX and Weebly look great, I found them difficult to figure out. Unless you’re really interested in showcasing your web design skills, getting a WordPress and pumping out content is probably the best way to get started.

  • Big Lonely Doug

    ‘Trading Sam Gagner, a Spot for Dahlen, and Blogging Platforms’
    …..I scanned the headline rather quickly. For a minute there, I thought I read ‘Logging Platforms’. I was freaked for a moment!

  • Defenceman Factory

    What’s worth more $6.3 million over 2 years and a roster spot or Sam Gagner? Trade him for a 6th round pick. I’m sure Sam is a good guy but he just doesn’t have a place at this time. If he can’t be moved waive him and buy him out next summer.

  • Ronning4ever

    I just don’t get the hate on for Gagner. He’s not great, but on a cost per point basis he ranks 174/466 (208 pro-rated). He’s more than worth his money, on average, as a UFA.

      • Ronning4ever

        “Nothing but chip in the odd point and makes way to much” huh? see above: this is demostratably wrong…he’s literally above average in chipping in points per cost. In the top 40% of he league. Could do better for sure, but was better than 60% of the league.

        I think it’s fair to weight that against his defensive shortcomings (his +/-, xgf% and gf% were all bad) but in terms of production he did ok.

        • Defenceman Factory

          I believe you about Gagner and his value for money. I don’t think it’s a hate for the player. Everybody knew what type of player he was when he was signed. He was just signed for too long. There are young players that are ready for the NHL who will be in Utica if Gagner is on the Canucks. Gagner is very limited in how he can be used, he is not hard to play against and his point production is readily replaced by younger players needing NHL experience. He is simply in the way.

          When Benning says he will find a spot for young players who deserve it that necessarily means moving out a veteran. I simply see Gagner as the 1st who needs to move. Before their contracts expire there are at least 4 more vets who need to be moved over the next 2 or 3 years.

          • Ronning4ever

            I think there might be a disagreement between yourself and I. I don’t think he’s signed for too long at all. In terms of players who are ready, I’m totally baffled by this sentiment. A full 67% of the prospects in the AHL will not even make it to the NHL as regulars. So Petterson, Gaudette, Jasek, MacEwan, Dahlen, Palmu, Lind, Juolevi, Briseboise, Chatfield, Demko, Gadovich…cut 8 of them. There’s one spot on the team right now and injuries will probably take out a couple of others in short order. I think for the first time in 3 years, the team actually has depth. Not enough talent, but depth.

          • Defenceman Factory

            Sorry but it just doesn’t make sense to list out 12 prospects and apply the 67% statistic. This is the same as saying if you flip a coin 12 times it will always be heads 6 times.That number is for all players in the AHL, not the top end of the prospects and does not include prospects that don’t play in the AHL. There is no way 8 of those you listed fail to make the show.

            Based on what I’ve seen so far Petterssen and Gaudette are already better players than Gagner. By the end of preseason it could be evident another one or two have surpassed him. The Canucks should also keep Goldobin and Leipsec ahead of Gagner.

          • Ronning4ever

            “This is the same as saying if you flip a coin 12 times it will always be heads 6 times.”

            Not at all, but you’re almost there. It’s the same as saying that if you flip a coin 12 times, 100 times over (1200 times total) you can develop a confidence interval (in this case 33%) for the flip (in this case the flip is “making it to the AHL”). These are in simple terms – “odds” that a player is going to make it. Folks have done the math. These are the “odds”. Teams, groups and time frames can always (by definition of odds) buck the trend – but can just measure how often this happens, and it’s not often.

            The “confidence interval” commonly used is stats is: how often will this occur 19/20? For example, a 95% confidence interval covers 95% of the normal curve — the probability of observing a value outside of this area is less than 0.05.

            So…it’s gunna be in a range (likely 7 – 9 for NHL don’t make it 80% – 95% of the time, but I’m just spitballing).

            “There is no way 8 of those you listed fail to make the show.”

            Hahahahaha. You’re not understanding this at all. While you’re correct it might not happen; statistically it’s the exact opposite – this is literally the most likely outcome if you run the numbers.

            That’s not to say that Jimbo might not buck the trend – he’s done it before, big time in the “Buffalo Benning Era” – but he did less well in Boston, and it’s just not likely. More likely – on average – is that he’ll continue to revert to the mean. That means more likely he’ll do worse over the long run in Vancouver, but here’s hoping he bucks the trend again.

          • Defenceman Factory

            You are going to hurt yourself. You have taken everything you learned it stats 101 and incorrectly applied it.

            I completely agree that only a third of AHL players will become NHL players. That is an average for the league as a whole not what you would expect from the top end of AHL players from the 2nd best prospect pool in the league. It the same way you can’t take the weakest 12 players from the roster and say 4 are likely to make the roster because none of them will. If you don’t understand that I hope you are never in a situation where success depends on your comprehension of statistics.

          • Ronning4ever

            I’m glad you completely agree that one third will make it, on average, so then I’m not sure how I’m incorrectly applying this. If you’re arguing that i haven’t included bottom end players, there’s some accuracy here but I just wasn’t being that diligent on a couple of variables. The 33% figure by the way looks at players under 25 and I was mostly looking at first full season AHL ers but also included some who are not and a couple who prob won’t even hit the AHL (a la Boeser). The best way to approach this is to take out those who skip the AHL, and only look at cohorts ie guys playing their first AHL season. THAT list is as follows for this year:

            Gaudette, Dahlen, Jasek, Gadjovich, Palmu, Lind, MacMaster, Dirk, Juolevi.

            In terms of high, low variation depending on prospect quality, you’re again correct, but again, this depends on how wide or narrow the bell is (haven’t really looked into it and probably won’t). But I would guess variation is is probably more like shooting percentage and face off stuff (ie really good face off guys win 55% of the time). So again it’s totally possible all of the 9 above will make it, but’s it’s more likely that 3 will and for a good pool? Maybe 4.

            So there you have it. Anyone can of course look at the list above and say 5 – 6 of those guys are a lock. But if we’re being honest about the odds? It’s more likely 3.

          • Defenceman Factory

            Thank you we are now at a common understanding and have clear points on which to agree. Of the first year players the odds are 3 will make it. I think we can also agree that on any small sample there can be wide variations around the mean.

            I think we will have to agree to disagree on whether Gagner should be on the roster. Cheers

          • Ronning4ever

            “Of the first year players the odds are 3 will make it. I think we can also agree that on any small sample there can be wide variations around the mean.”

            Excellent, and yes on the mean variation. As I said before, it’s just the most likely outcome, not the only outcome. For anyone still interested, I took a look at the list above and tried to look at the previous cohort to add them together. For that you can add: Brisebois, Chatfield, D’Aoust, Molino, MacEwan and Demko. So again on odds (assuming no variation), using my first list, adding bottom feeders and taking out Petterson (Gaudette could also possibly avoid this list):

            Gaudette, Dahlen, Jasek, Gadjovich, Palmu, Lind, MacMaster, Dirk, Juolevi, Brisebois, Chatfield, D’Aoust, Molino, MacEwan and Demko

            Pick 5.

    • Rodeobill

      I think, since his arrival, he didn’t find his role. Now that the Sedins are gone it is quite possible that he will be asked to fill in some of the role they played and/or as the team adjusts to their vacancy things will change and others are going to have to step up. It is quite possible that Gags has a better year this year (hopefully) and improves his stock, at which time I hope they can find a suitable trade and the management group does not convince themselves that he is foundational and/or needed to support the younger members of the roster. Here’s hoping anyway.

      • Bud Poile

        I agree. Put as many future core Canucks in Utica as possible and play these FA vets to up their trade value.
        This team will be much better next year with Utica seasoned young Canucks playing together for a season.
        Hughes will begin transforming the PP/transitional game next season.
        In the meantime,allow the placeholders to play in an attempt to garner as many picks as possible.

        • Pat_Quinn_Way

          WTF – more senseless double talk from this no life clown… he now wants ALL the prospects on Utica but wait…

          ” The Canucks need players that can contribute out of the gate, particularly on D. Hopefully it’s a player that is close to NHL ready come September” – Dud Poile

          “Juolevi, Gaudette, Brisebois,Rodin,McEneny,Demko and Subban will all push for jobs this season and Green has the mandate to integrate them.” – Bud Poile 2017

          “Don’t want to hear about “ifs” the team is what it is right now………..and it is deplorable. This parting with very good nhl and ahl prospects has me less and less interested in this team.” – Dud Poile

          No wonder he is a Benning disciple, both these proven idiots can’t make a decision to save their lives.

          • Cageyvet

            I rarely respond to you anymore, since you’re a boring broken record with claims of past predictions you can’t substantiate since, if you even made them, you were using a different name. Bud, on the other hand, can easily be referenced by strangely obsessive types like you. If he has changed his mind during his tenure here, that’s his prerogative, and displays the ability to observe and amend his opinion accordingly. As always, I’d rather read a comment section of all-Bud comments rather than be subjected to a single one of your rants. I shouldn’t feed the trolls, I know, but sometimes I can’t help but comment on how pathetic you are.

        • Giant-Nation

          I’m with Bud, stack em – pack em – and make Utica A stud team and give the young guns a great year of development. This will be the last year we can hold the new core back and possibly pluck another stud from the top 10 at the draft. This is our Franchise turning point, if we keep these guns in Utica and can sell off some vets for picks plus draft high again we will start to see the talent arrive next year. Advertising EP Boeser Horvat and Hughes as gate drivers and then secondary advertising with Youth rising angle Gaudette Dahlen Juolevi Demko possibly Gadjovich, Palma, so many guys could earn a good look. I would love another top 10 pick and then hit the go button with more youth on the big club.

          • Defenceman Factory

            How well does that plan line up with what Benning has said and done? There will be a good Utica team full of young players and rookies will get elevated to the Canucks but I don’t see it coming in waves. I think it will be a slow methodical transition to youth as they move into the league one or two at a time. One or two now, another through the season, some merit based injury call ups, maybe another 1 or 2 at the deadline and another one or two next off season.

            I tend to like your plan better but it doesn’t look like that’s how things are going to go.

  • TheRealPB

    I was excited as everyone else about seeing the performance of the young players at the YoungStars games. But I think we’re probably jumping the gun to think that they’ll all be ready to make the jump to the NHL right away. Playing in a prospects game against a bunch of other young players is one thing. Making it through the daily grind in the NHL is another. You could make a strong case that the Canucks rushing McCann and Virtanen really hampered their development; McCann looked a MUCH better player after his half-season stint in the AHL and while it’s doubtful that he’ll be a top-six player, a useful bottom-six two-way center is nothing to sneeze at. Horvat was able to be eased in as a fourth-liner with at least 2 quality NHL centers above him his rookie year. Most of these young players are coming out of junior, college or Europe and could use some real seasoning together in the AHL as many others have said. Next year is another story as then Gagner, Schaller and MDZ could really be blocking someone’s path but those players are also easy enough candidates to buy out.