Source: Canucks Giving Serious Consideration to Trading Down from Fifth Overall

News is fast and furious as we near the final hour in the lead up to the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo, New York. The Vancouver Canucks have connected themselves to nearly every marquee name that may or may not be available and that says nothing of the whirlwind rumours swirling around them.

The paradigm is slowly shifting to the draft itself, though, and the players that teams are aiming to select therein. Or even better still, whether teams are willing to retain their picks or jockey position in the hope of landing higher quality or quantity of selections.

According to one of my sources, the Canucks are active in these discussions as well. Though the price to move up to third overall has already been written off as prohibitive, it’s sounding like the Canucks are very seriously considering moving down from fifth overall. 

Vancouver covets two players in this draft above anyone else likely to fall to them at fifth. At the top of that list is Pierre-Luc Dubois of the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. Not far behind Dubois is Olli Juolevi of the London Knights.

The thinking, according to my source, is that if the Canucks can’t secure the former of those two, they will do everything in their power to maximize their value with fifth overall and secure a selection later in the top ten of the draft. Though the Canucks think Juolevi is the best defenceman in this draft, it is believed that they regard Mikhail Sergachyov of the Windsor Spitfires in a similar light and are willing to draft him should they find themselves without access to the Finnish stud defenceman.

So if Dubois isn’t available to the Canucks at fifth overall, expect them to — at the very least — make a concerted effort to trade down with any of the teams sitting between sixth and tenth overall. From that point, it sounds as though they are likely to select Juolevi. And if Juolevi isn’t available to them, they will be just as happy to select Sergachyov.

As with anything draft related, things are remarkably fluid at this point and subject to change by the time you’ve finished reading this piece. That said, the belief is that the Canucks are going to try to secure, at the very least, a high second-round selection from any team trying to overtake them in the draft for fifth overall.

Under these circumstances, the Canucks would secure value exceeding what they could reasonably expect by retaining fifth overall. Using the draft value data provided by Michael Shuckers, the Canucks will secure a higher expected value from a deal that falls under the auspices. 

Fifth Overall Draft Value: 741 Points

Sixth and Thirty-Sixth Overall: 919 Points

Seventh and Thirty-Seventh Overall: 878 Points

Eight and Thirty-Eighth Overall: 840 Points

Ninth and Thirty-Ninth Overall: 805 Points

Tenth and Fortieth Overall: 773 Points

These values are largely generalisations, but provide a rough composite value of what the Canucks can expect by executing a trade similar to the one they’re currently entertaining. Regardless, securing Juolevi or Sergachyov along with an extra pick would be excellent value for fifth overall. Frankly, I wouldn’t consider either of the defenceman a reach at fifth.

  • TrueBlue

    The only way of be okay with this is if Tkachuk dropped to 5th with Dubois taken at 4th, and Benning prefers Juolevi. If we’re not taking Tkachuk (who I love), then yes, maximize the value on that pick. And only if you can swing something like 5th overall plus our 3rd rounder for Arizona’s 7th & 20th or something along those lines.

    I could see Arizona wanting to draft Arizona-born Tkachuk as a Matthews consolation prize.

  • TrueBlue

    “According to one of my sources, the Canucks are active in these discussions as well. Though the price to move up to third overall has already been written off as prohibitive, it’s sounding like the Canucks are very seriously considering moving down from fifth overall.”

    According to my primary source – the internet – picks #3 to #5 are either in play or not in play…

  • Steampuck

    We have heard with some repetition that BOTH Dubois and Tkachuk are potentially first-line players. Perhaps not franchise-types, but the next best thing. I am not hearing the same thing about Juolevi or Sergachev. But being that my sources are Canucks Army bloggers, it is completely possible my sources are wrong on this.

    What this says to me is that unless the Canucks recoup multiple picks, I am not sure I like the return of a potential #2-3 defenceman and low first round, high second round pick. That to me is bleh when you can have spectacular.

    After the awful season we went through, and can expect next season, I don’t want to support a team with second-line prospects jamming up the system. Let’s get a potential star in the making.

  • Peachy

    If Benning keeps the pick and chooses a player, chances are that he’ll pick someone good and we’ll be fine.

    If Benning trades the pick, chances are that we’d be get ripped off.

    I”d be OK with trading #5 for another top 10 pick plus a second rounder, since we can still pickup Olujevi or Sergachev with the 1st rounder.

  • JuiceBox

    Two scenarios the Canucks trade down:

    IF PLD goes to EDM at #4 and Arizona wants to draft a homegrown boy bad enough the Canucks trade #5 to Arizona for the #7 and #37 (doubt the Coyotes give up both of their 1st round picks, they are only moving 2 spots in the draft).

    IF Tkachuk goes to EDM and Montreal wants PLD bad enough then the Canucks trade #5 to Montreal for the #9, #39 and/or #45.

    • Peachy

      Given the consensus of a top three, then consensus next two, then another drop off for talents taken in the 6 to 12 range, I don’t think that 7 and 20 is completely out of the question.

    • Steampuck

      I get the hoopla over draft picks, but if we’re trading down, I want a first-round pick and a prospect, not another lottery ticket or two. From Montreal: #9 & Juulsen appeals to me far more than a couple of third-rounders. From Arizona: #7 & #20 I could live with.

      • JuiceBox

        I was thinking along those lines at first, then a report came out that JB was looking to add more picks in the draft. Now that doesn’t mean he wont take a deal for a pick and a prospect but its more likely he will trade down for a package of picks. He has spent a lot of picks to land prospects this season (and been resoundingly run over the coals for it), I wouldn’t mind trading down for a top 10 pick and one or two 2nd/3rd rounders.

  • Ragnarok Ouroboros

    The only way Dubois and Juolevi are both not available at the 5th pick is if Columbus and Oilers both pass on Puljujarvi. And if that happened, there is no way the Canucks would trade down they would just take Puljujarvi and laugh all the way to the bank.

    I would say it is more likely that if Dubois is taken, then the Canucks should trade down so that they can take either Juolevi or Sergachyov. I’m not sold on Tkatchuk at 5th, since he was carried by better players.

  • Steampuck

    There is no bleeping way they trade down….

    Benning traded McCann knowing that with DuBois or Tkachuk will be at 5. He replaces a 2nd/3rd line winger with a 1st line winger and gains a 24 yr old top 4 right handed Dman.

    That’s the way Benning thinks…. He doesn’t just do things to create more gaps in the system. Suddenly the glut at center becomes a glut of Dmen, and they are looking for forwards.

    Tanev, Hutton, Tryamkin, Pedan, Big G that’s 5 guys that could be around for a while… They need a top forward in the system.

    Worst case,

    1. DuBois /Horvat… 1st 2nd center

    2. Top line of Horvat Jake V and Tkachuk…. That’s a load!

  • Dan B

    Hey guys… I’ve got news for you. Teams don’t care nearly as much about homegrown players as you all imagine. Every year there’s talk about a player from the Q that everyone thinks the Habs are in love with and are going to draft/trade for and it doesn’t happen.

  • detox

    This is sorta weird coming on the heels of Benning saying he believed one defenseman had separated from the pack. That, combined with his strong preference for assets that have an immediate impact, makes me think he’s keeping the pick. I’d be pumped if we got 7 and 20 from Arizona.

  • detox

    Calgary is picking Logan Brown. No way Burke passes up a 6’6 center. No way. So if Edmonton picks Dubois, and Arizona wants Tkachuck – Benning can get Juolevi at 7. If Edmonton pick Tkachuck, and Monteal wants Dubios – it will have to be a clear overpay – the 9th Gallagher, Juulsen or McCarron, and a 2nd.