Russian and NCAA-bound players are riskier to draft, but the Canucks should keep picking them

In the wake of Jimmy Vesey’s unsurprising decision (unsurprising to everyone except the Nashville Predators, apparently) this week to spurn the team that drafted him and test unrestricted free agency, the status of NCAA-bound draft picks has been on the tip of the tongue.

This is true industry-wide, but it’s been particularly true in the Vancouver market. There was some thought that the Canucks would’ve pursued Mark Jankowski if the Flames had been unable to get that deal done and the club’s top two prospects – Brock Boeser and Thatcher Demko – are currently playing in the NCAA. 

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If you look at Jim Benning’s draft record with Boston and Buffalo and Vancouver, there’s no clear trend in terms of his fishing holes. A career scout, Benning doesn’t seem to have a favoured league or nationality of player or what have you. 

He’s also drafted two Russian players, something the previous Canucks regime never did, and three college-bound players in his first two drafts. Clearly Benning doesn’t appear to be worried about the increased signing risk posed by NCAA-bound or Russian-born players. And he shouldn’t be. 

The dangers of 8.6(c)(iv)

Increasingly we’ve seen a wide variety of NCAA players spurn the teams that drafted them and hit unrestricted free agency. What was something of an oddity when Blake Wheeler and Justin Schultz elected to go this route, has become a common occurrence. Every summer it seems there’s at least one Vesey or Kevin Hayes, or at least a Zac Hyman (who was bound for free agency before the Florida Panthers traded his rights to Toronto).

The mechanism that allows college players to test unrestricted free agency in their early 20s is codified under the NHL/NHLPA collective bargaining agreement under rule 8.6(c)(iv). Over the years NHL teams have come to a greater understanding of the impact this rule can have on their prospect pool and have changed the way they behave. 

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Benning summarized Vancouver’s philosophy on this subject during a radio interview with TSN 1040 on Wednesday.

“I know one thing is that when our players now play three years (in college) we want to try and get them out if they’re ready for pro game,” Benning said. “We want to get them out in three years so that doesn’t happen where they get to free agency and that’s kind of been our thought all along.”

We saw this last season with how the Canucks pushed to get Ben Hutton signed after his junior season. We’re going to see it again with Demko following the Frozen Four tournament. Eventually we’ll see it with Boeser too, perhaps sooner than later. 

The thing to remember about college free agents, is that NHL teams actually enjoy a good deal of leverage with drafted players playing college hockey. If a team does as Benning recommends and approaches a player about turning professional after their third year, then they have a good number of bullets in the chamber. 

A team can offer such a player an entry-level deal (which comes with a maximum $92,500 signing bonus right away) and, if necessary, an opportunity to burn a year off that deal 16 months before they’d be eligible to hit unrestricted free agency. It’s a pretty good pitch too: “You want 100k now, or do you want to risk injury for another season and then take your chances in 16 months?” 

Burning a year of a player’s entry-level contract isn’t often required, but it’s on the table should teams need it. This is partly how Brian Burke and the Calgary Flames got Johnny Gaudreau signed, despite Gaudreau’s mother (Mrs. Jane Hockey?) telling the New York Times that she wanted him to graduate. A good thing they did too.

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As for Demko…

The hand-wringing about Demko – the Hobey Baker finalist whose junior season will finish next weekend, perhaps with a National Championship – has already begun in earnest if my @ mentions on Twitter are any indication. Of course that’s standard practice for Canucks fans. You may remember last April’s Jordan Subban panic…

The Canucks are confident, however, that they’ll get that deal done. As Benning told me earlier this month for a piece I wrote about Tryamkin, Demko and Rodin for Sportsnet:

“Demko is a player that we’ve drafted, he’s from San Diego and wants to be on the west coast, we’ve spent time with him, he likes our organization, he’s best friends with Jared McCann already through development camps,” Benning told Sportsnet. “So he’s a guy we’re going to get signed. We’ll wait until after his season, but we’ll get him signed.”

Until Demko has autographed the bottom line of his standard-player contract, we can’t say with certainty that the deal is going to get done. What we can say with a good degree of confidence is that Benning hasn’t allowed any 8.6(c)(iv) uncertainty to enter into his player evaluation process and it certainly seems like he’s not about to start now.

The Russian Factor

Switching gears for a moment, I think it’s worth revisiting Russian-born players – especially those who have remained in their mother country to play in the MHL or KHL – under this same rough rubric.

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The Canucks didn’t draft a Russian player during the Gillis regime, but that stance has softened under Benning. Vancouver drafted Nikita Tryakin in 2014 and he’s already made his Canucks debut. In 2015 the Canucks then selected MHL forward Dmitry Zhukenov and likely played some role in ensuring that he’d come to North America to play CHL hockey immediately. 

That Zhukenov is already in North America makes it difficult to imagine that he’ll be difficult to sign, should the club elect to at some point in the not-too-distant future. The Tryamkin situation is perhaps more interesting though, particularly because of his AHL out clause.

What we’ve seen in recent years is that young KHL players have followed Evgeni Kuznetsov’s path to the NHL. It’s not that these Russian-born players don’t want to play in the show, they very much do, they’d just rather play in the KHL, a very good professional league that’s much closer to home, then put in reps riding the bus to the backwaters of upstate New York in the American League. In talking with Russian hockey journalists, they’ve explained to me that this is what Tryamkin did and it’s also partly why Artemi Panarin waited until he was 23-years-old to sign an NHL deal.

This popular notion is more than just idle speculation. For New York Rangers prospect Pavel Buchnevich, for example, the desire to avoid playing in the AHL is specific and out in the open. 

“If I went overseas, I think that they would send me to the AHL and I had to play there the whole season,” Buchnevich told championat.ru in December,

translation courtesy The Hockey Writers

. “I think that the KHL is better than the AHL.”

Teams have a few more hoops to jump through when they’re dealing with Russian-born players that they’ve drafted out of the MHL or KHL, but often-times these players are worth the wait. That’s especially true if you’re drafting a player 10 or 20 slots below where they’d be picked if they held a Canadian passport (something that applies to all of Kuznetsov, Tryamkin and Buchnevich).

Conclusion

At this stage of their team-building cycle, the Canucks need as much high-end talent as they can find. Even though he was strongly considering taking a defenseman with a top-10 pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, and may yet depending on how the lottery unfolds, Benning is pretty close to a best player available absolutist. For an organization that has needs everywhere, that’s the right approach.

When a team is in accumulation mode, it behooves that club to let other organizations worry about the ‘Russian factor’ or 8.6(c)(iv). If those worries cause a player to drop further down the draft then he otherwise would, then that’s even better. 

So far Benning’s approach has paid off. His regime got Hutton signed, they drafted and managed to sign Tryamkin and they’ll probably have some honest discussions with Demko and Boeser in Tampa Bay next weekend. Even if they eventually get burned though, ignoring these sorts of risk factors and just focusing on talent procurement is still the way the organization should proceed.



  • “At this stage of their team-building cycle, the Canucks need as much high-end talent as they can find.”

    Straight up delusion…

    EVERY team needs as much high end talent as possible at ALL times.

    Which is why Gillis’ Moneypuck-risk averse BS that this blog supported was ass backwards…

    Where was this article two years ago?

    Why is there so much ink spilled about mistakenly selecting Virtanen and little to no deconstruction about how the Canucks may have selected Kuznetsov at the 2010 draft – and avoided the Ballard blunder – had the previous regime not been so stubborn with high end Russian talent?

    Inept bloggers continue to recycle my stuff glossed over with political correctness and believe they are being innovative…

  • I missed your baseless negativity NM00.

    “Where was this article two years ago?” He asks. Why it was written by Cam Charron and edited by me and Rhys and hosted at CanucksArmy.com of course:

    canucksarmy.com/2014/4/10/the-russian-well

    The best part? Check out comment 3, and you’ll find NM00 ripping the article.

    • Fred-65

      “And just like Ricciardi, Gillis had his group of internet followers defend his strategy until the general manager was mercifully terminated.”

      More like you would find NM00 saying things two years ago that you rubes would like to forget since you were in Gillis’ pocket…

      “Evgeny Kuznetsov was available when the Canucks traded their 2010 first rounder and Michael Grabner for Keith Ballard.”

      It’s the same reason you write puff pieces for Benning now…

      You cannot be a truly “independent” voice when your bread is being buttered directly and indirectly by Aquillini and his disciples.

      Everyone that has been around since the beginning of the NM00 era remembers how unpopular the persona was.

      It’s the same reason I may now go out of my way to be a jerk and still maintain a following…

      Something you will never be able to do.

      And you know it…

  • @Ted I appreciate his loyalty as a reader and commenter, even if his criticism of this site and our contributors tends to be over the top. Often times buried within NM00’s piss-baby negativity is an insightful nugget or two. Just wish I didn’t have to dig through so much nonsense to get at it.

  • @nm00 I try to approach my job with scepticism and I try to be fair. I was never in “Gillis’ pocket” and i don’t write puff pieces “for” Benning. I do my best to call a spade a spade.

    What I definitely don’t do is set out to be “a jerk”. There’s two reasons for this: 1) if you set out with a destination in mind (“I’m going to be a jerk about this”) then you cloud your judgement and bias your analysis and 2) it’s a miserable way to be.

    I doubt anyone who has been around since the formation of the NM00 persona would disagree with me when I say that you fall into both traps with regularity.

    • Fred-65

      “I try to approach my job with scepticism and I try to be fair. I was never in “Gillis’ pocket” and i don’t write puff pieces “for” Benning. I do my best to call a spade a spade.”

      What else are you going to say?

      People can look up what the bloggers were saying during the Gillis era when NM00 was created…

      Charron was the only one displaying a modicum of critical thinking towards the previous regime and even he rarely went far enough.

      People can read the pieces you write on Sportsnet on behalf of the organization where you act as a mouthpiece for Benning…

      Of course, you aren’t going to enjoy your coridal relationship with the organization if you call a spade a spade.

      People can see the times they put you on the TV brodcast.

      EVERYONE can see the microphone shaking in your hands.

      It is literally impossible for you – in your current position along with your limitations as a writer and speaker – to do what I do.

      And that’s why delusional Canuck fans love me…

  • @NM00

    If you think you’re going to get a rise out of me with this insulting psychobabble and your completely off-base media criticism – and I know you think you’ve wounded me with these comments, because you massively overrate your own influence – you’ve got another thing coming.

    Fact is, I built this property (and a career) through honest hard work and by gaining the readerships trust. And don’t kid yourself, you don’t have a following, you’re just squatting on ours.

    • Fred-65

      “If you think you’re going to get a rise out of me with this insulting psychobabble and your completely off-base media criticism – and I know you think you’ve wounded me with these comments, because you massively overrate your own influence – you’ve got another thing coming.”

      After you make three superfluous comments to blatant trolling…

      “Often times buried within NM00’s piss-baby negativity is an insightful nugget or two. Just wish I didn’t have to dig through so much nonsense to get at it.”

      Reading comprehension for bloggers…

      “Fact is, I built this property (and a career) through honest hard work and by gaining the readerships trust. And don’t kid yourself, you don’t have a following, you’re just squatting on ours.”

      This is not a job interview or your diary…

      Thomas…you’re the only blogger left from the beginning of the NM00 era and you are, BY FAR, the worst at interacting with NM00.

      JD gets way more bile from me – although he earns it by trying to be the Tony Gallagher of this space – but he laughs it off.

      You are the girl on the playground having her hair pulled.

      Figuratively speaking, of course…

    • BuffaloBillsOfHockey

      You may have basically built this blog, Drance, but it looks like you’re forgetting Canucks Army readership rule numero uno: don’t feed the troll.

  • BuffaloBillsOfHockey

    “they’d just rather play in the KHL, a very good professional league that’s much closer to home, then put in reps riding the bus to the backwaters of upstate New York”

    * than

  • Fred-65

    I don’t want to get sidetracked by this asinine and self-important re-emergence of the troll-talk (though I would say that the tendency to speak about oneself or one’s ‘persona’ in the third person is far greater evidence of delusion than opinions about a sports team).

    However I would say that in terms of this article, while you reiterate that there’s nothing really to worry about in terms of Demko and Boeser, the very fact that you’ve dedicated yet another article to the topic while telling us not to panic tends to imply just the opposite, that we should keep our eyes on it. You write “Increasingly we’ve seen a wide variety of NCAA players spurn the teams that drafted them and hit unrestricted free agency. What was something of an oddity when Blake Wheeler and Justin Schultz elected to go this route, has become a common occurrence.”

    Really? How common? I think you’re concocting a crisis where there really isn’t any evidence of one. Even if one or two players a year don’t sign with the team that they drafted, what does that mean in the overall scheme of things? How many drafted CHLers don’t sign with the team that owns their rights and eventually go back into the draft?

    This season there were 182 NHL draft picks playing in the NCAA. 51 were seniors. 1 decided not to sign with the team that owned his rights. Granted, Vesey is a Hobey Baker finalist. And granted there’s been a few high profile cases like Wheeler and Schultz. But they are by far the exceptions. Out of literally hundreds of players. And contrary to your story it isn’t trending higher. If you do want to keep pushing this crisis story you need to come up with better evidence that something is actually wrong. If the NCAA was really such a danger I seriously doubt so many first (8) and second (18) rounders would be sent there by their pro teams.

    • Dirty30

      Wait… I thought (the real) NM00 was just Cam Charron posting contrarian drivel under a pseudonym to drive page views? Wouldn’t Thom know if it wasn’t Cam posting?

      I’m confused ….

  • >> ignoring these sorts of risk factors and just focusing on talent procurement is still the way the organization should proceed.

    Not to be overly pedantic (why stop now?) but one should never ignore risk factors. The important thing is to ensure that the reward outweighs the risk so that you receive positive results over time.

    It is left to the reader as an exercise to apply this general principle to the Canucks asset management under the current and previous management.

  • Fred-65

    Remember the Gills era was in the Radulov/ Kovalchuk times. Russian were not the flavour of the month, just like when Quinn took Nedved rather than Jagr, political problems but no KHL to deal with. Getting Jagr out while difficult was not impossible ( Mogiliny, Larionov, Bure, and lets not forget Chubarov walking out

    The fact is we are where we are and we deal with what’s on the table. Times have changed but there are still dangers attached This AHL/KHL clause s just another example. I’d have to think others will use the same example in the future.

    As to the NCAA UFA mess Id have to think this will be addressed in the next CA if not before if possible