Hockey Graphs Podcast EP 21 – Weissbock, JD Jerk, and MoneyPuck invade Hockey Graphs


Garret and Rhys return this week and they bring some friends!

Join us after the jump (or on iTunes!) for a detailed look back at the 2015 draft with Josh Weissbock, and then “JD Jerk” and “MoneyPuck” join in for some “Free Agency Frenzy” discussion.

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All episodes up to and including this one should be available on iTunes here!

  • BuffaloBillsOfHockey

    on brisebois being on the top d pair: brooks orpik was a top-pairing dman for washington last year too… and he would’ve gotten smoked if not for niskanen putting him on his back. doesn’t always mean much.

    brisebois being -40, 10 +/- worse than any other player on the team, is seriously concerning. he was bottom 10 on his team in the prior season in +/- as well. it’s the best proxy (essentially the same thing as ES rel GF%) for possession that we have for the junior leagues, so i’m not sure why you guys continue to entirely disregard it. at this point, in my view, it’s a red flag and something to keep an eye on going forward.

    the thing is is even if there is a lot of bad luck going into that number, you can reasonably conclude that he wasn’t a top possession guy on Acadie, and when we get another full season next year of +/-, if he is last or near the bottom again, it’s a really bad sign.

      • BuffaloBillsOfHockey

        Ya that definitely explains part of it. Still, it’s a red flag. There est. fen close, per, is 46.6%. A 3.4% fen rel isn’t all that much to ask from him, and would’ve given him an expected +/- of 0, all else equal. Something fishy.

    • Dr. StrangeTiger

      Brisebois was ranked 41st and seen as one of the better defensive d in the draft by some.

      You think Brisebois got scored on too much?

      On a terrible last place team he played 70% of each game for, you are wondering why at 17 he can’t just make his whole team better and be 50% corsi or better every time he is on the ice?

      There is no help for you. May God have mercy on your soul.

      It’s funny you use Washington as an example where Ovi was -35 two years ago. Better teammates and coaching can turn that around.

      Brisebois said himself that he was hesitating at times and missing opportunities, admits there’s lots of work to do. He was under a lot of pressure being captain at 17. Most scouts seem to agree he was timid offensively but the tools are there.

      6’2, projects as a solid 2 way-defender with good vision and skating.

      Another good prospect for the cupboard.

      • BuffaloBillsOfHockey

        lol he wasn’t playing on the buffalo sabres, they were a 46.6% possession team. -40 is a total disaster. it’s possible that he was extremely unlucky, but as i said before, that is a red flag. sorry if you are unable to comprehend that.

        • Dr. StrangeTiger

          Actually yeah, he pretty much played on the Sabres of the Q.

          Sorry you put way too much stock in +/- for a developing 17 year old dman on what was the worst team in the league.

          • Dr. StrangeTiger

            No, not quite. 37.5% possession vs 46.6% possession.

            The ’17 year old’ excuse is not really valid. If a guy from junior is on track to make the NHL, he should be making a fairly significant positive impact to his team in his draft year. The next worst +/- for a dman on Acadie was a SIXTEEN year old kid, who was at -22. You’ll (hopefully) notice that that is significantly better than -40.

            I’ll try one last time: +/- is heavily influenced by luck, BUT it correlates relatively closely to possession. As the sample grows, it becomes more and more reliable. Thus, if he is near the bottom of his team again next year in +/-, it would suggest that he’s a bad possession guy.

            Again, I’m not writing the guy off, just saying it’s a valid concern.

          • Dr. StrangeTiger

            But he probably did not play 40 mins a game. Therefor if he was on the ice for less than brisebois the opposition had less chance to score while he was on the ice. Pretty simple imo that his +/- was driven by lack of quality teammates and time on ice.

          • Dr. StrangeTiger

            Everyone was crying about Edler being -39, and how bad defensively Ovi was at -35. They both turned that around, and those teams were not bad possession teams. IIRC Vancouver was flirting with top 10 in the league.

            Like AI said he’s #1D on the leagues worst team playing all situations with no quality teammates.
            Obviously it’s not good, everyone sees that. Jim Benning is a pro scout and it will be years before this kid develops anyways.

          • Dr. StrangeTiger

            Aside from possession perhaps (however accurate that 46.6 is for the Titan), the teams were in very similar positions.

            You’re right it does stand out, and it’s not something to disregard especially if it becomes a trend. We’ll see how this season goes.

            I don’t think it’s particularly damning or alarming at this point.

            Thanks for the discussion.

  • Dr. StrangeTiger

    I am excited about Brisebois I think he can develop into a top 4 d-man . But I think his ceiling is below average top pair d-man. He is definitely our top defensive prospect!