Expected Vs. Actual Save Percentage

Luongo

Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca does a study at the end of each season that attempts to measure difficulty of shots that every NHL goaltender faces. The methodology can be found here, and it’s an interesting look at a statistic that’s largely swayed by team ability.

His results for 2008-09 are out; here’s a look at Western Conference goaltenders this season (all numbers at even-strength, minimum of 30GP over the last two seasons):

Player Name | Expected SV%| Actual SV% | Difference

Nikolai Khabibulin | .902 | .927 | +.025
Roberto Luongo | .906 | .931 | +.025
Jonas Hiller | .906 | .927 | +.021
Pekka Rinne | .907 | .921 | +.014
Chris Mason | .909 | .923 | +.014
Steve Mason | .904 | .917 | +.013
Dwayne Roloson | .909 | .920 | +.011
Dan Ellis | .903 | .911 | +.008
Evgeni Nabokov | .907 | .915 | +.008
Ty Conklin | .908 | .913 | +.005
Josh Harding | .919 | .922 | +.003
Nik Backstrom | .919 | .921 | +.002
Curtis Sanford | .910 | .912 | +.002
Matheiu Garon | .906 | .907 | +.001
Ilya Bryzgalov | .911 | .911 | EV
J-S Giguere | .910 | .905 | -.005
Chris Osgood | .901 | .894 | -.007
Jason Labarbera | .912 | .905 | -.007
Marty Turco | .906 | .898 | -.008
Miikka Kiprusoff | .908 | .899 | -.009
Erik Ersberg | .914 | .904 | -.010
Andrew Raycroft | .916 | .900 | -.016
Peter Budaj | .915 | .896 | -.019
Manny Legace | .911 | .882 | -.029

Some other notables who played fewer games:

Jeff Deslauriers | .913 | .900 | -.013
Curtis McElhinney | .913 | .893 | -.020

No real surprises on that list; goaltenders having bad seasons end up near the bottom as well as the just-plain-bad goaltenders in the league.

  • lj

    I'd have to think Tom Renney would be a better fit with the Flames than the Oil. Just my opinion.

    Renney's completely different than Keenan, Playfair & Darryl, and might bring a breath of fresh air. I know I've constantly said Brent Sutter will be their next head coach, but if the thought process is that he would be more of the same and the club wants a different type of voice, I'd say Tom Renney is as good a place as any to start. They've tried the young up-and-comer with Playfair with little success, so I can't see them going that way. Marc Habschied may be an acception, but that may be my personal bias as I like him.

  • lj

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    Willis, I take acception to your "eulogy".

    First, what was "so convenient" about Rhett Warrener's injury. It's not as though he faked an injury so he wouldn't count against the cap. He was waived and would've played in Quad City and not been a cap hit anyways. Am I missing something?

    Secondly, (I'm not even gonna comment on "It's alright, Jarome — not everyone can be Ryan Malone"), the 17th pick they traded for Cammalleri was replaced with another 1st rounder (25th) & a 2nd rounder in the Tanguay trade. They upgraded the player and only moved down 8 spots.

    Thirdly, "Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a first-round pick? Hah! Don Maloney never knew what hit him.
    ". Well Maloney only months earlier moved highly regarded D Keith Ballard (and solid veteran D Nick Boynton) to land Jokinen. Given the option, I'd take Ballard over what they now have.

    Fourth, Dion Phaneuf is 24 years old. So he had a bad year. Does that mean he'll be terrible forever now? I doubt it. He played with broken ribs since February! Why Keenan insisted on overplaying an injured guy, I don't know.

    Fifth, wouldn't you love Regher on YOUR team?

    Sixth, does every 1st round pick have to be a mass point-producer? Does it typically, statistically speaking happen? Are you seriously making fun of the Flames pick the SAME year the Oil took the esteemed Jesse Niinimaki. Well that was a great pick, your right what were the Flames thinking when they took Nystrom over Niinimaki?

    Seventh, the ol' training bra joke? Seriously? Ahhhh…..Oil fan….. so predictable.

  • lj

    @ RossCreek:

    Just two questions:

    1) Are you a Flames fan?
    2) Did you seriously expect me to be charitable and even-handed in what was basically an excuse to torch the Flames?

  • lj

    […] has decreased for the fifth year in a row or that his save percentage adjusted for team quality is the third-worst among Western Conference starters or that he got even worse during the playoffs, does […]