Adjusted Save Percentage: Measuring the Impact Defense has on Goaltending Statistics

money puck
October 16 2014 01:30PM

#456882700 / gettyimages.com

One of the reasons we love sports as much as we do is because of the great debates it can spawn. I came across a classic hockey debate the other day in relation to Ryan Miller. “Of course Miller didn’t post elite numbers last year. He played for Buffalo!”   

As I was thinking about this, it struck me that while we have made huge strides in advanced statistics overall, we haven’t made much progress in terms of quantifying the impact of defense and separating that contribution to statistics for the goalie themselves. We can tell the percentage of shots a goalie save (SV%), but we have little to no insight into the difficulty level of the shots themselves.  

From a quantitative standpoint, we understand the game better now than ever before. We understand shot attempt differential, which we know we can be used to approximate possession. We call this corsi, and we understand this to be a key component of overall team success. We can also begin to isolate the impact a player has on their team’s shot attempt differential, which is a solid representation of strong two way play.

However, there is one factor that detractors of advanced stats have always struggled with. Detractors have long protested that not all shots have an equal chance of going in, and they’re right. Is it possible to adjust save-percentage to reflect easier or more difficult workload? Find out after the jump. 

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Canucks Army Weekly Prospect Report - October 16, 2014

Josh W
October 16 2014 09:30AM

We are back with this week’s Canucks Army prospect report, where we look at all the activities of Canucks prospects outside of the AHL and their teams.  Most players have been busy this week in the OHL and WHL, while the NCAA is just starting up (except for the Ivy League schools).  Europe has been well underway since September and the ECHL has begun its regular season.

Continue past the jump for all the latest news and statistics of your Canucks’ prospects!

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The Comets have a Goalie Controversy

Josh W
October 15 2014 05:00PM

During the 2013-2014 season, the Vancouver Canucks’ goalie depth chart was pretty clear cut: Roberto Luongo was the starter, as all the previous drama was now behind him; Eddie Lack was the backup though soon would want to be a starter somewhere; and newly signed Joacim Eriksson was coming from Sweden to continue development in the AHL.  In the Canucks and Comets systems there was also Joe Cannata and Matthieu Corbeil signed, but they were never going to be much more than ECHL starters (Corbeil was bounced around 4 teams, effectively cut from each) and AHL backups.

That all changed the day John Torterella decided to play Lack in the Heritage Classic, citing that the Senators had been scouting Luongo and he wanted to throw a curve-ball at the Senators.  He’s never blatantly said it but, Luongo wanted to play it that game, and after years of abuse from the fans, the media and the team, this was the straw to break the camel’s back.

Luongo was shipped out, and in return came back young Jacob Markstrom as part of a package.  Not feeling confident with two young goalies to start the 2014-2015 season the new Vancouver management signed veteran goaltender in Ryan Miller. This whole dynamic of 5 goaltenders in the system (with a sixth still developing in the NCAA) is now going to start a new goalie controversy with two goalies fighting for the number one position.  I am not talking about one in Vancouver, but rather one in Utica.

Read past the jump for a breakdown of the Utica Comets goaltender situation.

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FORWARD MARCH: Hospitals, fans, jerseys and Gino Odjick...wait, what?

Ashley March
October 15 2014 03:07PM

Picture 4

I happened to spend some time in the emergency room last week for my ongoing health battles. (No need to get alarmed, everything is for the most part under control.) I was admitted for the better part of two days and I started to suffer from extreme boredom. So I did what any other crazy patient would do, which is whip out their phone and start looking up things. Now, don’t tell them I was on it though since I probably screwed up the I.V. thing I was hooked up to, but I digress.

The NHL season had been in full swing for a couple days at this point. Also by this point I had started to hear the nastiness of comments coming from almost every disgruntled fanbase in the league. It wasn’t just normal trash talk towards each other but it was directed to THEIR OWN TEAMS. Read past the jump!

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What Would You Do Wednesday: Defensive Zone Faceoffs

That's Offside!
October 15 2014 10:00AM

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Welcome to a new feature here on Canucks Army and all sites on the Nation Network: What Would You Do Wednesday, where we put you, yes YOU, in charge of your own imaginary Vancouver Canucks. We'll present you with a different scenario each week, and you tell us how you'd solve it in the comments section below. Give props to the answers you do like and trash the ones you don't. Easy! So let's get started:

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