The Draft Files: The Historical Cohort Based Approach Gets Its Sham On

money puck
April 11 2015 10:00AM

Later today, the Washington D.C. Hockey Analytics Conference will take place, as a handful of online analytics personalities will gather at Georgetown University to present a variety of studies and findings in the field of hockey analytics. Our own MoneyPuck will be in attendance to present the following study on simulating former entry drafts based on his height and scoring cohort success percentage model, so let's wish him the best of luck!

One of the passions that most of us at Canucks Army share is the desire to improve how teams draft players. This should come as no surprise, given that most of us are long suffering Canucks fans that have had to live with having one of the league's worst draft records

Much ink has been spilled in the analytics community on the importance of scoring at the junior level as an indicator of future success, with many analysts lamenting the perceived bias teams have in selecting size over skill. Josh Weissbock and myself addressed this in our work on predicting the future NHL success of both forwards and defensemen. We found small players had a lower likelihood of making it in the NHL than their taller peers who produced at the same rate offensively. Smaller players that did make it were generally prolific scorers at the junior level. Far from a validation of drafting size over skill, the implications of the study were rather intuitive and predictable: draft the higher scorer, and if scoring is equal, pick the bigger player. 

So given this information, can we out-draft an NHL team? Find out after the jump.

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Why Wednesday's Signings Might Cost Vancouver Shawn Matthias and Yannick Weber

money puck
April 10 2015 01:00PM

After a series of pretty nice deals by Canucks management, including the Chris Tanev extension and trades for Adam Clendening and Sven Baertschi, most of us at Canucks Army were more than a little surprised to see the Canucks extend Luca Sbisa and Derek Dorsett. Drance, Rhys, and Petbugs all chimed in on their angles on the deal over the last couple of days. All definitely worth a read, but I think it's safe to say it's been a long time since there have been deal(s) which provoked such a consensus negative reaction. 

Beyond what our other writers touched on, these extensions raise a lot of questions about what management's plans are in terms of navigating the salary cap and building a team for next year. We'll explore this after the jump.

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Hockey Graphs Podcast Episode 12: Sbisa Money

That's Offside!
April 10 2015 11:00AM

Hockey Graphs Podcast 2

On our 12th episode, we look at the Canucks and Jets making the playoffs, the Derek Dorsett and Luca Sbisa contract signings, and spend too much time looking at draft eligible prospects once again. Join us after the jump to listen!

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Canucks Army Prospect Report - April 10th, 2015

Josh W
April 10 2015 09:00AM

Prospects_IMG_5328

Courtesy: Sarah Hobday

We are back with another edition of the Canucks Weekly Prospect Report, where I dig into all the latest stats, rumours, gossip, news, achievements, and even made up stories from around the different junior hockey leagues. We look into the play of all (non-AHL) Canucks prospects from the CHL, NCAA, Europe, and even the ECHL.

Without further ado, continue past the jump to see what went down!

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NHL 94 Recap: Night Changes

Matthew Henderson
April 10 2015 08:00AM

NHL 94 recap

On a night where the Canucks found out they will battle the rival Calgary Flames in the first round of the playoffs, they continued their fight for home ice and won big. Our 8-bit recap is after the jump

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