Canucks Weekly Prospect Report - December 24th, 2013

Josh W
December 24 2013 12:08PM


Image Courtesy of @TheUticaComets

T'was the day before Christmas, and all through the smylosphere, not a blogger was stirring, except maybe @joshweissbock ...

While Christmas is here, most of hockey is quieting down, but not all the prospects are idle. This week's prospect report is a bit shorter than normal but it's just as full of prospect #fancystats including the first ever Estimated Usage Chart for any league outside of the NHL. As always, follow me @nuckprospects on Twitter for the latest in prospect news and feed free to send me any feedback, on anything prospect related you wish me to cover, and have a Merry Christmas!

Without further ado..

Utica

Games

Wednesday's game

This week feaatured two games against the Abbotsford Heat (2nd in the West, 25th in Possession (47.49%), 102% PDO) at home.  In the first game the Comets dominated the majority of the offensive zone time, in the last minute the Comets were winning 3-1, Utica scored a short-handed (6-4) empty net goal with the Heat quick to return.  The final score for the Comets was 4-2 with goals scored by: Mullen (2), Lain and Biega.  Assists were from Friesen (his first point), Stuart, O'Reilly, Pelletier, Mallet, and Andersson.  Shots were even at 28-28 by the end of the game with Eriksson stopping 26 of 28.  The PP went 1 for 4 and the PK went 4 for 5.

Friday's Game

On Friday the Comets played the Heat again in a much more even game but the Comets managed to get the shutout.  The final score was 3-0 with shots close at 23 - 21 for the Heat.  Goals came from Lain, Grenier and Ferriero and assists from DeFazio, Andersson, O'Reilly, Ferriero and Stuart.  Eriksson was in net making 21 of 21 saves.  The PP went 1 for 2 and the PK was 2 for 2.

Players Performance

Players stats who have played at least one game with the Comets, (X) indicates not currently on the active roster, so far are:

# Player Pos Age GP G A PTS PPG SOG Sh/G +/- PIM SH%
78 Benn Ferriero R 26 27 10 10 20 0.74 82 3.04 -8 10 12.2
10 Colin Stuart L 31 23 9 4 13 0.57 67 2.91 -1 20 13.4
20 Zac Dalpe (X) R 24 6 0 3 3 0.50 14 2.33 -6 2 0
25 Darren Archibald L 23 19 3 4 7 0.37 43 2.26 -3 38 7
28 Alexandre Grenier R 21 27 6 9 15 0.56 60 2.22 2 23 10
6 Yannick Weber (X) D 25 7 2 5 7 1.00 15 2.14 -5 0 13.3
17 Nicklas Jensen C 20 21 1 3 4 0.19 43 2.05 -3 8 2.3
42 David Booth (X) F 28 3 0 1 1 0.33 6 2.00 -1 0 0
23 Pascal Pelletier C 30 23 5 16 21 0.91 42 1.83 2 20 11.9
14 Patrick Mullen D 27 22 6 4 10 0.45 39 1.77 -3 9 15.4
24 Brandon DeFazio F 24 27 2 7 9 0.33 45 1.67 3 50 4.4
7 Henrik Tommernes D 23 21 3 4 7 0.33 32 1.52 -8 0 9.4
26 Frank Corrado C 20 27 2 3 5 0.19 39 1.44 -1 20 5.1
16 Cal O'Reilly C 27 13 2 8 10 0.77 18 1.38 3 0 11.1
4 Yann Sauve D 23 23 0 5 5 0.22 30 1.30 -6 30 0
19 Kellan Lain C 24 27 5 4 9 0.33 33 1.22 -2 58 15.2
9 Zach Hamill (X) C 24 21 3 6 9 0.43 23 1.10 -4 6 13
29 Kent Huskins D 34 17 0 0 0 0.00 18 1.06 3 7 0
3 Alex Biega D 25 25 1 3 4 0.16 24 0.96 -2 27 4.2
12 David Marshall F 28 23 0 1 1 0.04 18 0.78 -5 9 0
27 Alex Mallet C 21 21 1 1 2 0.10 13 0.62 -2 9 7.7
40 Peter Andersson D 22 21 1 6 7 0.33 12 0.57 -1 6 8.3
8 Alex Friesen F 22 5 0 1 1 0.20 2 0.40 1 0 0

Goalies so far:

# Goalies GP Mins W L SL SO GA GAA SVS SV%
30 Joacim Eriksson 20 1146:23:00 8 10 1 2 53 2.77 515 0.907
35 Joe Cannata 9 475:04:00 2 6 0 0 24 3.03 202 0.894

Transactions:

  • Polasek returned to the K-Wings and Hamill cleared waivers and released, most likely to play in Europe for more money.

Other:

Currently the Comets are in 15th place with 22 points (10-15-1-1), only 3 points from 14th (with 4 games in hand) and 4.5 games from a playoff position.  They have been out-scored 63 to 80 (-17), and have been out-shot 797 to 733 (-64).  The Comets are controlling 48.40% (acknowledging score effects) of the shots with an on ice shooting percentage of 8.5% and a save percentage of 90.5%.  A simple version of PDO puts them at 98.6% which has increased now that Eriksson has a Sv% over 0.900. Their PP is currently at 20.41% (7th place) and their PK is 75.70% (29th place), both of which have increased.  Puck possession rankings put them at 19th which has been an indication of their more recent success (compared to the first ten games).

Will we see Corrado in the NHL this year?  My gut feeling is not likely, but Pass it to Bulis looks into this deeper.

I have completed more #fancystats analysis in the AHL for Canucks Prospects.  The first thing I've run a Quality of Competition analysis to see who has been playing against tougher opponents.  This was done last year on the Chicago Wolves by Canucks Army so I've used the same method.  It uses opponents PPG, which does have it's problems and we do recognize this, this is why it is an Estimated QoC.  I intend to run this later using Gf%, but this requires knowing every player's, across the league, Gf%. 

Forward Comets:

  Name F-Value D-Value F-Rank D-Rank Average
1 15 Jeremy Welsh (X) 0.73716937 0.402933689 2 4 3
2 19 Kellan Lain* 0.567139342 0.39427766 8 5 6.5
3 23 Pascal Pelletier 0.574568691 0.381291243 6 7 6.5
4 10 Colin Stuart 0.588858545 0.363845229 5 11 8
5 16 Cal O'Reilly 0.522893543 0.433464723 14 3 8.5
6 25 Darren Archibald* 0.568214069 0.343747616 7 12 9.5
7 20 Zac Dalpe (X) 0.697184909 0.298007176 3 16 9.5
8 18 Mitch Wahl (X) 0.428260193 0.62 19 1 10
9 22 David Pacan (X) 0.850503663 0.136363636 1 20 10.5
10 8 Alex Friesen* 0.037037037 0.555555556 20 2 11
11 24 Brandon DeFazio 0.541048821 0.365683078 13 9 11
12 9 Zach Hamill (X) 0.625616032 0.287318769 4 18 11
13 78 Benn Ferriero 0.562016086 0.332267985 10 13 11.5
14 28 Alexandre Grenier* 0.564895816 0.331701508 9 14 11.5
15 44 Brayden Irwin (X) 0.433971366 0.390909091 18 6 12
16 27 Alex Mallet* 0.454130087 0.37095654 17 8 12.5
17 12 David Marshall (X) 0.489954021 0.364081054 15 10 12.5
18 17 Nicklas Jensen* 0.561625319 0.291803022 11 17 14
19 16 Kelsey Wilson (X) 0.489392017 0.32013468 16 15 15.5
20 42 David Booth (X) 0.551731602 0.24009324 12 19 15.5

Defencemen Comets:

  Name F-Value D-Value F-Rank D-Rank Average
1 4 Yann Sauve* 0.641012662 0.376945309 1 3 2
2 3 Alex Biega 0.599028592 0.357856555 2 5 3.5
3 6 Yannick Weber (X) 0.519460565 0.508863925 7 1 4
4 29 Kent Huskins 0.55259607 0.3794151 6 2 4
5 26 Frank Corrado* 0.566851714 0.362996483 5 4 4.5
6 14 Patrick Mullen 0.594249983 0.350676428 3 6 4.5
7 40 Peter Andersson* 0.578824205 0.341801355 4 7 5.5
8 7 Henrik Tommernes* 0.516575204 0.313818616 8 8 8
9 2 Adam Polasek* (X) 0.371195145 0.269230769 9 9 9

Next I ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the remainder of the season to estimate where the Comets will finish.  I will give more details in a dedicated post on this but the idea is that we randomly complete the remainder of the AHL season using rules I've discovered from my research to try and estimate the probability of the Comets (or other teams) finishing at each conference position as well as their probabilities of making the post season.  I iterated this 20,000 times to determine the averages.  The Utica Comets currently have a 12.46% chance of making the playoffs, with further breakdown of each conference position is as follows:

Position Probability
1. 5e-05
2. 0.00035
3. 0.00175
4. 0.00575
5. 0.0127
6. 0.0195
7. 0.03475
8. 0.04975
9. 0.0703
10. 0.09225
11. 0.1177
12. 0.14125
13. 0.15565
14. 0.1651
15. 0.13315

I've also been working on Estimated Usage Charts for the AHL (and other non-NHL leagues).  They are based on Rob Vollman's Usage Charts which are often shown around CanucksArmy.  For these Est. Usage Charts for the AHL it shows how the current prospects are performing based on their usage.  The X-axis is the opposing forwards Est. QoC.  The Y-Axis is the opposing defencemen Est. QoC.  The circle size is their Est. TOI and the colour is their Even Strength Goal For % with blue being positive and red being negative. 

The forwards:

The defencemen:

The Comets play three times in the next week, all at home.  December 27th vs the BSens, Dec 28th vs Hamilton and January 1st vs Lake Erie.

World Juniors

Shinkaruk was a last minute cut from the WJC team, but this is actually better for his development as he currently has an injured hip. He can give it some rest and hopefully let it recover rather than play through it.  This is why his development has staggered this year. Canucks Army and Nucks Misconduct covered Shinkaruk being cut with more detail.

Bo Horvat has played in all three exhibition games. Beating Finland 4-2, Horvat scored 1 Goal and 1 Assist.  And against Switzerland, in the 4-1 win, Horvat scored another goal (short handed) and an assist. So far he has 4 points in 3 exhibition games.

ECHL/CHL

The ECHL and the CHL have not quieted down this week either. Polasek was returned to the K-Wings but has not made much of a splash. Corbeil finally started two games for Wheeling. After shutting out the other teams in two games as the relief, in his first start he is back to his old ways of letting in 6 goals on 19 shots. Steven Anthony has clearly improved this year. He now has the same number of points in 16 games as he did last year over 41 in the ECHL (16, 3G, 11 A).  I wouldn't be surprised to see him called up to the AHL at some point.

Statistics of players in the ECHL so far are:

ECHL Position Team GP G A P PPG +/- SOG S/G PIM
Blain D K-Wings 11 1 4 5 0.45 4 21 1.91 32
Pacan RW K-Wings 22 4 8 12 0.55 10 35 1.59 8
Polasek D K-Wings 16 1 1 2 0.13 4 25 1.56 16
Blomstrand LW K-Wings 22 8 2 10 0.45 -3 48 2.18 8
Anthony F CHL St Charles 16 3 8 11 0.69 -4 30 1.88 4
Guimond D Gwinnett 16 2 1 3 0.19 -14 41 2.56 8

And Corbeil:

Goalies Team Position GP Min GA GAA W L OTL SV SV%
Mathieu Corbeil ECHL Wheeling G 4 209 8 2.29 2 1 0 76 90.50%
Mathieu Corbeil CHL St. Charles G 6 236 21 5.35 0 2 1 103 0.831

Other:

  • Utica Comet's Goalie Masks [AHL]

It hasn't been an extremely busy week on the ice but the statistical analysis keeps rolling.  Until next week (and next year) make sure to follow me at @nuckprospects for all the latest in Canuck Prospect news.  Thanks for all the good feedback I've heard from you guys in the three months of posting this series, and hopefully I can keep bringing you prospect news through 2014. 

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I am a Van Fan in Bytown. Living in Ottawa for work, I research Sports Analytics and Machine Learning at the University of Ottawa. I play hockey as well as a timbit but I compete in rowing with hopes of 2016 Olympic Gold. Follow me on twitter at @joshweissbock and feel free to give me a shout.
Avatar
#1 Just One Cup
December 24 2013, 09:37PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
+1
3
props

How are Gaunce and Subban doing?

I'm starting to wonder if Gaunce will ever make it to the show, based on his foot speed issues. Sure he seems to produce some points in the OHL, but will this translate to the NHL? Hope so..........

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