How did NHLers that shot 8% in 2011 do in 2012?

Cam Charron
July 09 2012 02:36PM


Mason Raymond in his natural habitat.

So Mason Raymond re-signed today, and a fanbase went nuts. But you all know the story. Thom linked to it earlier.

Anyway, I don't think that fans in the Vancouver market truly appreciate shooter regression. Raymond shot at just 8% last season and 7.6% the season before that. Now, there's reason to believe that "Raymond is just a horrible shooter" but like I showed with my Jason Garrison analysis, even four years doesn't generally predict how good of a shooter a player is.

So I took the simple route. I looked at five forwards who had a shooting percentage similar to Raymond's last year from the year 2011. I wanted to compare it with how they did in 2012. Small sample, whatever. Raymond is a small sample himself, and all we want is a general idea of what we can expect out of Raymond.

My five players:

  1. Radim Vrbata
  2. Patric Hornqvist
  3. Matt Hendricks
  4. Jannik Hansen
  5. Matt Cullen

How did those players do in 2011?

  Goals/82 Shots/Game Sh%
Vrbata 19.7 3.04 7.92%
Hornqvist 21.8 3.35 7.92%
Hendricks 9.6 1.47 7.96%
Hansen 9.0 1.38 7.96%
Cullen 12.6 1.92 8.00%
       
All 14.5 2.23 7.95%

So, not too different from Mason Raymond. As a trivial exercise, Raymond had 14.9 goals per 82 games, 2.27 shots per game and a shooting percentage of exactly 8.0%. So he's pretty much identical to these combined players.

How did those players do the very next season?

  Goals/82 Shots/Game Sh%
Vrbata 37.3 3.01 15.09%
Hornqvist 29.1 3.03 11.74%
Hendricks 4.2 1.24 4.12%
Hansen 16.0 1.67 11.68%
Cullen 15.7 2.25 8.54%
       
All 20.4 2.23 11.16%

Funny. Shots per game was exactly equal, yet the player's scored more goals. Why? Because they got a couple more bounces apiece. Vrbata and Hornqvist each had career years. Hansen developed into a strong two-way threat. Even with Hendricks' offensive meltdown, every other player increased their production.

For the record, Mason Raymond is not as bad as Matt Hendricks.

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Cam Charron is BC-raised hockey fan and journalist and acts as the managing editor of The Leafs Nation. In his spare time, you can find him blogging about numbers at Canucks Army, discussing the juniors at Yahoo's Buzzing the Net, ranting in some way or another at the Score's Backhand Shelf, or acting as an MSM wannabe in the pages of the Vancouver Province.
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