Data dumps: Canucks adjusted Corsi/Fenwick numbers

Cam Charron
June 05 2012 11:42AM

Using Vic Ferrari's timeonice.com scripts, I looked at data from here, here and here to determine Corsi and Fenwick numbers for the Vancouver Canucks this season. The Ferrari scripts will differ slightly from Behind the Net's because BtN looks at 5-on-5 data while TOI, I do believe, registers all even strength situations.

Either way, both are solid resources and the charts below will offer us a glimpse into which Canucks were the best at controlling the play when they were on the ice.

First off, here is how Corsi and Fenwick numbers are counted:

No NAME TOI GP GF GA SF SA MF MA BF BA
2 Dan Hamhuis 1528 82 74 46 703 679 297 232 394 258
3 Kevin Bieksa 1506.9 78 67 56 727 674 316 240 402 269
4 Keith Ballard 675.8 47 21 21 304 322 123 115 171 153
5 Marc-André Gragnani 193.7 14 5 9 107 94 44 22 52 46
6 Sami Salo 1060.4 69 40 37 466 501 197 144 268 216
7 David Booth 743.1 56 25 25 400 315 181 111 215 131
8 Chris Tanev 393.3 25 17 8 201 162 70 60 100 87
9.1 Cody Hodgson 686.2 63 33 25 281 303 125 107 160 141
9.2 Zack Kassian 174.7 17 5 6 78 87 34 30 46 35
14 Alex Burrows 1155.9 80 53 34 576 499 226 152 329 182
15 Marco Sturm 61 6 1 5 29 23 12 9 16 12
17 Ryan Kesler 1123.9 77 40 31 558 506 250 156 306 233
20 Chris Higgins 952.5 71 45 34 456 434 192 135 261 199
21 Mason Raymond 744.7 55 29 28 367 404 132 108 211 159
22 Daniel Sedin 1096.8 72 52 35 556 454 246 144 306 163
23 Alex Edler 1488.8 82 60 64 681 695 291 213 385 302
24 Mark Mancari 49.9 6 0 0 17 25 8 6 15 7
25 Andrew Ebbett 152.2 17 7 5 74 66 32 23 31 25
26.1 Mikael Samuelsson 66.3 6 2 3 36 24 10 7 19 11
26.2 Samuel Pahlsson 236.6 19 9 6 110 116 36 31 65 56
27 Manny Malhotra 769 78 24 38 251 393 89 152 146 192
29 Aaron Rome 602.1 43 16 21 281 260 102 99 141 148
32 Dale Wiese 549 68 13 13 200 271 86 100 104 122
33 Henrik Sedin 1257 82 65 40 637 544 272 171 339 201
34 Byron Bitz 104.3 10 4 2 36 42 12 14 20 25
36 Jannik Hansen 1033.9 82 49 33 431 484 195 154 281 232
38 Victor Oreskovich 5.9 1 0 0 1 7 0 1 0 2
40 Maxim Lapierre 821.4 82 24 28 317 391 117 156 164 179
41 Andrew Alberts 575.4 44 22 18 209 276 81 90 139 131
42 Bill Sweatt 10.2 2 0 0 4 2 1 3 1 4
52 Alexander Sulzer 180.9 12 9 3 72 96 31 35 40 28
54 Aaron Volpatti 203.9 23 5 6 68 88 34 41 44 55
79 Mike Duco 48.2 6 4 3 18 25 2 8 7 14

[ TOI = Even strength time on ice, GP = Games Played, GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against, SF = Shots For, SA = Shots Against, MF = Misses For, MA = Misses Against, BF = Blocks For, BA = Blocks Against ]

Corsi is calculated by adding up GF, SF, MF and BF and subtracting them by GA, SA, MA and BA. Shot attempts are a very good proxy for offensive zone time. Fenwick, a variant of Corsi, takes blocked shots out of the calculation and it is more indicative of scoring chances than overall puck possession.

Anyhow, if you were total raw Corsi/Fenwick numbers, here would be your team leaders:

No NAME Corsi Fenwick
22 Daniel Sedin 364 221
33 Henrik Sedin 357 219
14 Alex Burrows 317 170
3 Kevin Bieksa 273 140
2 Dan Hamhuis 253 117
7 David Booth 239 155
17 Ryan Kesler 228 155
20 Chris Higgins 152 90
23 Alex Edler 143 60
6 Sami Salo 73 21
8 Chris Tanev 71 58
36 Jannik Hansen 53 4
21 Mason Raymond 40 -12
5 Marc-André Gragnani 37 31
25 Andrew Ebbett 25 19
9.1 Cody Hodgson 23 4
26.1 Mikael Samuelsson 22 14
29 Aaron Rome 12 19
26.2 Samuel Pahlsson 11 2
15 Marco Sturm 9 5
4 Keith Ballard 8 -10
9.2 Zack Kassian 5 -6
24 Mark Mancari 2 -6
42 Bill Sweatt -3 0
38 Victor Oreskovich -9 -7
52 Alexander Sulzer -10 -22
34 Byron Bitz -11 -6
79 Mike Duco -19 -12
54 Aaron Volpatti -39 -28
41 Andrew Alberts -64 -72
32 Dale Wiese -103 -85
40 Maxim Lapierre -132 -117
27 Manny Malhotra -265 -219

This isn't the best measure to judge a hockey player, mind you. Corsi and Fenwick numbers, like goal totals, are somewhat reliant on overall offensive and defensive zone starts. Manny Malhotra and Maxim Lapierre are at a disadvantage because they usually start shifts in their own end, while the Sedins usually start them in the opposite end. The other caveat is the amount of time on ice each player gets.

By dividing Corsi by time on ice and multiplying by 60, we get a "Corsi/ON" number, which is the rate of extra offensive shots fired per 60 minutes:

No NAME Corsi/60 Fenwick/60
22 Daniel Sedin 19.9 12.1
26.1 Mikael Samuelsson 19.9 12.7
7 David Booth 19.3 12.5
33 Henrik Sedin 17.0 10.5
14 Alex Burrows 16.5 8.8
17 Ryan Kesler 12.2 8.3
5 Marc-André Gragnani 11.5 9.6
3 Kevin Bieksa 10.9 5.6
8 Chris Tanev 10.8 8.8
2 Dan Hamhuis 9.9 4.6
25 Andrew Ebbett 9.9 7.5
20 Chris Higgins 9.6 5.7
15 Marco Sturm 8.9 4.9
23 Alex Edler 5.8 2.4
6 Sami Salo 4.1 1.2
21 Mason Raymond 3.2 -1.0
36 Jannik Hansen 3.1 0.2
26.2 Samuel Pahlsson 2.8 0.5
24 Mark Mancari 2.4 -7.2
9.1 Cody Hodgson 2.0 0.3
9.2 Zack Kassian 1.7 -2.1
29 Aaron Rome 1.2 1.9
4 Keith Ballard 0.7 -0.9
52 Alexander Sulzer -3.3 -7.3
34 Byron Bitz -6.3 -3.5
41 Andrew Alberts -6.7 -7.5
40 Maxim Lapierre -9.6 -8.5
32 Dale Wiese -11.3 -9.3
54 Aaron Volpatti -11.5 -8.2
42 Bill Sweatt -17.6 0.0
27 Manny Malhotra -20.7 -17.1
79 Mike Duco -23.7 -14.9
38 Victor Oreskovich -91.5 -71.2

Poor Victor Oreskovich. He played six minutes of awful hockey this season.

Now, we adjust them for defensive zone starts. Each extra defensive zone start will add an extra 0.8 Corsi points to each player's total, and 0.6 Fenwick points:

No NAME Corsi/60 Fenwick/60 Adj Cor/60 Adj Fen/60
26.1 Mikael Samuelsson 19.9 12.7 21.4 13.8
25 Andrew Ebbett 9.9 7.5 16.8 12.7
7 David Booth 19.3 12.5 14.0 8.5
8 Chris Tanev 10.8 8.8 13.8 11.0
24 Mark Mancari 2.4 -7.2 12.0 0.0
17 Ryan Kesler 12.2 8.3 12.0 8.1
27 Manny Malhotra -20.7 -17.1 11.5 7.1
15 Marco Sturm 8.9 4.9 11.2 6.7
3 Kevin Bieksa 10.9 5.6 11.0 5.6
2 Dan Hamhuis 9.9 4.6 10.0 4.6
20 Chris Higgins 9.6 5.7 9.5 5.6
40 Maxim Lapierre -9.6 -8.5 8.6 5.1
5 Marc-André Gragnani 11.5 9.6 6.8 6.1
29 Aaron Rome 1.2 1.9 5.9 5.4
26.2 Samuel Pahlsson 2.8 0.5 5.8 2.8
36 Jannik Hansen 3.1 0.2 4.8 1.6
34 Byron Bitz -6.3 -3.5 4.7 4.8
22 Daniel Sedin 19.9 12.1 3.2 -0.5
4 Keith Ballard 0.7 -0.9 3.1 0.9
14 Alex Burrows 16.5 8.8 3.0 -1.3
33 Henrik Sedin 17.0 10.5 2.5 -0.5
32 Dale Wiese -11.3 -9.3 2.1 0.7
23 Alex Edler 5.8 2.4 1.3 -0.9
9.1 Cody Hodgson 2.0 0.3 1.0 -0.4
52 Alexander Sulzer -3.3 -7.3 0.4 -4.5
6 Sami Salo 4.1 1.2 -0.5 -2.3
54 Aaron Volpatti -11.5 -8.2 -0.9 -0.3
21 Mason Raymond 3.2 -1.0 -1.5 -4.5
41 Andrew Alberts -6.7 -7.5 -1.9 -3.9
9.2 Zack Kassian 1.7 -2.1 -3.8 -6.2
79 Mike Duco -23.7 -14.9 -5.7 -1.5
42 Bill Sweatt -17.6 0.0 -17.6 0.0
38 Victor Oreskovich -91.5 -71.2 -83.4 -65.1

Now we're getting somewhere. Mikael Samuelsson had a great start possessionally before he was traded, and Andrew Ebbett thrived in his limited minutes, but the best Canucks were David Booth and Kevin Bieksa according to this measure. Chris Tanev again proves promising by adjusted statistics.

Caveat: this isn't a measure of how good a player is, or at least isn't the only measure. There are other factors, but generally, teams that hold onto the puck well tend to score more goals, and teams that score more goals tend to win more games. There are many other factors in play here. We refer to these numbers in absence of team scoring chance data, and we'll show you why later this week when we begin to unveil Canucks scoring chances.

Since Corsi and Fenwick are a way of establishing who has the puck, they can be indicators of good two-way play. In this case, Canuck fans may be underestimating the positive impact of Marc-André Gragnani and Aaron Rome...

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Cam Charron is BC-raised hockey fan and journalist and acts as the managing editor of The Leafs Nation. In his spare time, you can find him blogging about numbers at Canucks Army, discussing the juniors at Yahoo's Buzzing the Net, ranting in some way or another at the Score's Backhand Shelf, or acting as an MSM wannabe in the pages of the Vancouver Province.
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Reply #1 RhysJ June 05 2012, 02:17PM
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So the question that all this begs is what do all these numbers mean? Specifically, what do your adjusted totals tell us about specific players. When I read those numbers, and a variety of alarm bells go off about your analysis.

First of all, let's just outline what the Sedins have done specifically over the last couple of years: combine for two league scoring titles, win a Ted Lindsay and a Hart trophy, and guide the franchise to two consecutive Presdident's Trophies and a Western Conference Championship. In other words, they are elite talents. This fact is undeniable.

However, the adjusted Corsi and Fenwick totals do not indicate this at all. In fact, based on these adjusted reports, your numbers would predict more success for Malhotra, Mancari, Sturm, etc. than they would for Henrik and Daniel if O-zone start% was more or less equal. To me, this says one of two things: either Corsi and Fenwick are completely useless at indicating anything resembling success and should be ignored entirely, or the method of standardization is critically flawed in that it skews cases of "specialized deployments" too much one way or another. This second conclusion is particularly significant in this case because we know that Alain Vigneault radicalizes player deployment to a greater extent than any other coach in the NHL.

Now, I'm familiar enough with the concepts of possession to know that they are not completely useless, and in fact they are a pretty decent indicator of something (although my own research into team Corsi% and Fenwick% vs. actual team success has yielded only weak correlations at best), so I'm much more comfortable concluding that there is a problem with these particular adjustments to individual Corsi and Fenwick numbers. Granted, I haven't looked in to adjusting for zone starts enough to suggest a more accurate standardization, however I can say with a fair degree of confidence that the numbers you have simply do not make sense in the context of what we know about these players.

Therefore, I would either seek a different method of adjusting Corsi and Fenwick for zone starts, or I would disregard the adjusted numbers entirely.

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Reply #2 RhysJ June 05 2012, 02:22PM
+1 0 props

By the way, I've also mined all the data from timeonice.ca's "mplayershots" script for all teams and players over the past five seasons and have it in some Excel spreadsheets. If either you or Thom are interested, tweet me (@Thats_Offside) and I can send it to you.

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Reply #3 Tanev beast June 05 2012, 08:15PM
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Man Tanev is gold. And man Ballard is a bust. What the goat is this guy still doing in Van?

If Gillis doesn't find some steel nards, we're gonna end up with Raymond and Ballard on the roster next yr - and possibly Salo playing a top 4 role still. We can all look forward to another 1st round exit. Seriously, I know it's a little harsh. But I predicted all of this last summer.

Gillis has to fill the gaping holes on the Canuck roster: a) top 4 d-man not named Salo or Schenn b) playmaker for Kes c) 3rd line centre who can play tough minutes d) some actual toughness. Please. It's been 2 straight years of going into the playoffs without a 4th line. Enough is enough.

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