THE VALUE OF A DRAFT PICK?

Jason Gregor
February 25 2011 02:25AM

Every year during the month leading up to the NHL trade deadline there are heated debates in chat rooms, on blogs, at coffee rooms, around water coolers and here on the Nation about what is a fair or good return in a trade. It is much easier to debate when actual players are moved, but when people start tossing around draft picks the air becomes much more grey.

What is the true value of a draft pick? Is a 2nd rounder fair return on a eight-year veteran 3rd pairing D-man? Many of us seem to think it is, but is it really?

I don't have the answer to either question, so I decided to take a look at a decade of drafting and see if the numbers can shed any light on how we should value a draft pick. Without even doing any research it seems obvious that a 1st rounder has the most value, and then a 2nd, but will the value drop accurately from a 3rd, to a 4th and so on?

I'm not sure there is a perfect outline in determining how valuable a pick becomes for each individual team, but we need some guide lines so I came up with the following.  

BUST (Fewer than 100 games)
SHORT LIVED (Out of league and less than 300 Games played)
DECENT PLAYER
DOMINANT PLAYER (considered an elite player by fans/media outside their city)
 
I'm sure the biggest argument will come from who is listed as a dominant player. I didn't put many players in the dominant category, even if they were first liners, Dion Phaneuf, on their own team for many years. I wanted to go as recent as possible with my ten-year window, but it is too early to tell how picks in 2006-2010 will develop, so I used the drafts from 1996-2005.
 
**If you want to add a player or two from the decent to the dominant player, I'm sure you can, but it won't affect the amount of actual NHL players each draft year provided.***
 
Of course this isn't a perfect system, because you will have guys who played 800 games and didn't produce many points, and might have averaged only 13 minutes a night, lumped in with guys who played 1000 games and scored a fair amount of points. I'm sure we could try to come up with a formula to rank the importance of certain players by using salary, ice-time, points, special teams play and quality of competition, but unless you are a magician I doubt you'll find a formula that we'll all agree with.
 
This is just a guideline, and after seeing the results it seems clear that draft picks, outside of the first round, are over-valued in my opinion. The great news is even after reading this we will all still debate that if Mike Fisher is worth a first and more then Dustin Penner must be worth a first and at least a second.
  
1996  
 
1st ROUND (25 picks)
11... Busts
2...   Short Lived
12... Decent players
 
2nd ROUND (26 picks)
17... Busts
1...   Short Lived 
8...   Decent players
 
3rd ROUND (28 picks)
20...Busts
1...  Short lived
6...  Decent players
1... Dominant player (Chara)
 
4th ROUND (28 picks) 
22...Busts
2...  Short Lived
4.... Decent players
 
5th to 9th ROUND (133 picks)
 
115..Busts
5...    Short Lived
12...  Decent players
1...    Dominant player (Tomas Kaberle, 8th rounder)
 
In 1996 there was 240 picks and two of them became dominant players (1.0%), 42 are decent players (17.5%), 11 were short lived (4.5%), and 185 were busts (77.0%).
 
The first round produced no dominant first liner, while 48% turned into decent players, 8% had short lived careers and 44% were busts.
 
In the 2nd round the chance of success dropped significantly,  30.7% became decent players, 0.33% had a short lived stint and 65.3% turned out to be busts. 
 
In every round the chance of a decent or dominant player continued to drop: 25% in the 3rd round, 14.2% in the 4th and only an average of 9.8% in the final five rounds.
 
Out of the 241 picks only 44 of them (18.2%) turned into regular NHL players.
 
 
1997  
 
1st ROUND (26 picks)
11...  Busts
2...   Short Lived
10... Decent players 
3…  Dominant players (Joe Thornton, Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa)
 
2nd ROUND (27 picks)
22... Busts
2...   Short Lived 
3...   Decent players
 
3rd ROUND (27 picks) 
22...Busts
2...  Short lived
3...  Decent players
 
4th ROUND (26 picks) 
22...Busts
2...  Short Lived
2.... Decent players
 
5th to 9th ROUND (140 picks)
 
121..Busts
3...    Short Lived
16...  Decent players

 
In 1997 there was 246 picks, three of them became dominant players (1.3%), 34 became decent players (13.8%), 11 were short lived (4.5%), and 198 were busts (80.4%).
 
The first round produced three dominant first liners (10%), while 38.4% turned into decent players, 7.7% had short lived careers and 42.3% were busts.
 
In the 2nd round the chance of success was minimal, only 11.1% became decent players, 7.4% had a short lived stint and 81.5% turned out to be busts. 
 
The 3rd round had the exact same success rate as the 2nd, but after that the chances of drafting an NHL player dropped to 7.7% in the 4th, but then rose to 11.4% in the combined final five rounds.
 
Out of the 246 picks only 37 of them (15.0%) turned into regular NHL players.
 
   
1998  
 
1st ROUND (27 picks)
5...   Busts
3...   Short Lived
18... Decent players
1…  Dominant player (Vincent Lecavalier)

 
2nd ROUND (31 picks)
22... Busts
3...   Short Lived 
6...   Decent players
 
 
3rd ROUND (28 picks) 
16...Busts
5...  Short lived
6...  Decent players
1... Dominant player (Brad Richards)
 
4th ROUND (28 picks) 
20...Busts
4...  Short Lived
4.... Decent players
 
5th to 9th ROUND (144 picks)
123..Busts
5...    Short Lived
15...  Decent players
1...    Dominant player (Pavel Datsyuk, 6th rounder)
 
In 1998 there was 258 picks and three of them became dominant players (1.1%), 49 are now decent players (19.1%), 20 were short lived (7.8%), and 185 were busts (72%).
 
The first round produced one dominant first liner, while 46.2% turned into decent players, 11.5% had short lived careers and 42.3% were busts.
 
In the 2nd round the chance of success dropped again, 30.7% became decent players, 0.33% had a short lived stint and 65.3% turned out to be busts. 
 
In every round the chance of a decent or dominant player continued to drop: 25% in the 3rd round, 14.2% in the 4th and only 9.8% in the final five rounds.
 
Out of the 258 picks only 52 of them (20.1%) turned into regular NHL players.
 
 
 
1999  
 
1st ROUND (28 picks)
12... Busts
6...   Short Lived
8...  Decent players
2… Dominant players ( Daniel and Henrik Sedin)
 
2nd ROUND (38 picks)
28... Busts
6...   Short Lived 
4...   Decent players
 
 
3rd ROUND (30 picks) 
21...Busts
2...  Short lived
7...  Decent players

 
4th ROUND (30 picks) 
27...Busts
2...  Short Lived
1.... Decent player
 
5th to 9th ROUND (146 picks)
 
130..Busts
6...   Short Lived
8...   Decent players
2...   Dominant players (Ryan Miller, 5th round, Henrik Zetterberg, 7th round)
 
In 1999, 272 players were drafted, four of them became dominant players (1.5%), 28 became decent players (10.2%), 22 had short lived careers (8.1%), and 218 were busts (80.2%).
 
The first round saw 7.1% turn into dominant first liners, while 28.6% turned into decent players, 21.4% had short lived careers and 42.9% were busts.
 
The 2nd round in 1999 produced very few NHL players. Only 10.5% (four of 38) became decent players, 15.8% had a short lived career, while 73.7% turned out to be busts. 
 
The following rounds weren’t much better. Drafting a decent or dominant player was low: 23.3% in the 3rd round, 3.3% in the 4th and only 7.7% in the final five rounds.
 
Out of the 272 picks only 32 of them (11.8%) turned into regular NHL players.
 

2000

1st ROUND (30 picks)
10... Busts
4...   Short Lived
14... Decent players
2...   Dominant players (Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik)
 
2nd ROUND (34 picks)
23... Busts
10... Decent players
1...   Dominant players (Ilya Bryzgalov. He was waived by Anaheim later on.) 
 
3rd ROUND (31 picks)
25...Busts
3...  Short Lived
3...  Decent players
 
4th ROUND (34 picks)
31...Busts
1… Short Lived
2.... Decent players 
 
5th to 9th ROUND (162 picks)  
148...Busts
6…   Short Lived
7...   Decent players
1...   Dominant player (Henrik Lundqvist, 7th rounder)
 
In 2000 there was 291 picks and four of them became first liners (1.4%), 36 turned into decent players (12.4%), 14 were short lived (4.8%), and 237 were busts (81.4%).
 
In the first round you had a 6.7% chance of getting a first liner, while 46.7% turned into decent players, 13.3% had short lived careers and 33.3% were busts.
 
The 2nd round produced one first liner, 2.9%, ten decent players, 29.4%, while the other 23 players, 67.7%, turned into busts.
 
This year the odds of drafting an NHL player dropped even quicker than usual. In the 3rd round only 9.6% became players, the fourth round had 6.5%, while the final five rounds averaged only 4.9%.
 
Out of the 291 picks only 40 of them (13.7%) turned into regular NHL players. 
 

2001

1st ROUND (30 picks)
6... Busts
4... Short lived
18..Decent players
2... Dominant players (Ilya Kovalchuk and  Jason Spezza) 
 
2nd ROUND (33 picks)
23... Busts
1...   Short lived
9...   Decent players 
 
3rd ROUND (34 picks)
28...Busts
2...  Short lived
4...  Decent players 
 
4th ROUND (34 picks)
29...Busts
1.... Short lived
4.... Decent players 
 
5th to 9th ROUND (158 picks)
133...Busts
10... Short lived
15... Decent players
 
2001 had 289 picks and two of them became first liners (0.7%), 50 turned into decent players (17.3%), 18 were short lived (6.2%), and 219 were busts (75.8%).
 
In the first round you had a 6.7% chance of getting a first liner, while 60% turned into decent players, 13.3% had short lived careers and 20% were busts.
 
The 2nd round produced a 31.4% chance of getting a decent player, while 3.0% were short lived and 65.7% turned into busts.
 
The odds of getting a decent player didn’t drop as much as usual in the subsequent rounds. In the 3rd round it was 11.7%, same as the fourth round, while the final five rounds had a higher than average 9.4%.
 
Out of the 289 picks only 52 of them (18.0%) turned into regular NHL players.
 

2002

1st ROUND (30 picks)
7... Busts
1... Short lived
21..Decent players
1... Dominant player (Rick Nash) 
 
2nd ROUND (33 picks)
24... Busts
8...   Decent players
1...  Dominant player (Duncan Keith) 
 
3rd ROUND (33 picks)
26...Busts
2...  Short Lived
5...  Decent players 
 
4th ROUND (35 picks)
31...Busts
1.... Short lived
3.... Decent players
 
5th to 9th ROUND (160 picks)
148...Busts
5...    Short lived
7...    Decent players
 
2002 saw 291 players drafted with two of them becoming first liners (0.7%), 44 turned into decent players (15.1%), nine were short lived (3.0%),and 236 ended up being busts (81.2%).
 
In the first round you had a 3.3% chance of getting a first liner, while 70.1% turned into decent players, 3.3% had short lived careers and 23.3% were busts. 
 
In the 2nd round the chances of success dropped significantly from the first round. An almost equal 3.1% became dominant players, but now only 24.2% became decent players and 72.7% turned out to be busts. 
 
Once again the odds of drafting a quality NHLer dropped to 15.1% in the 3rd round, 8.6% in the fourth round and only a 4.3% chance in the final five rounds combined.
 
Out of the 291 picks only 46 of them (15.8%) turned into regular NHL players.
 

2003

1st ROUND (30 picks)
2... Busts
2... Short lived
18..Decent players
8... Dominant players (Eric Stall, Ryan Suter, Jeff Carter, Brent Seabrook, Ryan Getzlaf, Zach Parise, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards.) 
 
2nd ROUND (38 picks)
24... Busts
4… Short Lived
9...   Decent players
1...  Dominant player (Shea Weber) 
 
3rd ROUND (33 picks)
26...Busts
4...  Short Lived
3...  Decent players
 
4th ROUND (35 picks)
32...Busts
1.... Short lived
2.... Decent players
 
5th to 9th ROUND (156 picks)
135...Busts
8...    Short lived
13...  Decent players
 
***Loui Eriksson, Corey Perry and Patrice Bergeron are very close to being in the dominant category, which could make this draft look even better in a few years.***
 
2003 has widely been considered one of the greatest drafts ever, and that was mostly from an exceptional first round. There are lots of top-end players in this draft class.There was 292 players drafted with nine of them becoming dominant players (3.0%), 45 turned into decent players (15.5%), 19 were short lived (6.5%),and 219 ended up being busts (75%).
 
In the first round you had a 26.6% chance of getting a first liner, while 60% turned into decent players, 6.7% had short lived careers and 6.7% were busts. 
 
In the 2nd round the success rate drop significantly. Only 2.4% became dominant players, while 23.7% became decent players, 10.5% had short lived careers and 63.4% turned out to be busts. 
 
Similar to 2001, the later rounds produced more decent players than most years. The 3rd round produced 9.1% while it dipped to 5.7% in the fourth round, but it rose to an average of 8.3% in the final five rounds combined.
 
Out of the 292 picks only 54 of them (18.5%) turned into regular NHL players.
 

2004

1st ROUND (30 picks)
8... Busts
6... Short lived
14..Decent players
2... Dominant players (Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin) 
 
2nd ROUND (35 picks)
26... Busts
2… Short Lived
7...   Decent players

3rd ROUND (33 picks)
25...Busts
3...  Short Lived
5...  Decent players 
 
4th ROUND (31 picks)
24...Busts
2.... Short lived
5.... Decent players
 
5th to 9th ROUND (162 picks)
143...Busts
9...    Short lived
10...  Decent players
 
***Keep in mind I did some projections with this draft year. Guys like Dave Bolland, Kris Versteeg, Mikhail Grabovski and Alex Goligoski were only around 200 games, but I put them in the decent category, because barring an injury they all look like guys who will play well beyond 300 games.***
 
2004 saw the second Russian player go first overall and Alex Ovechkin has lived up to the hype of being the first overall pick. His draft year had 291 players taken, but it produced only two dominant players (0.7%), 41 turned into decent players (14.1%), 22 were short lived (7.6%),and 226 ended up being busts (77.6%).
 
In the first round you had a 6.7% chance of getting a first liner, while 46.7% turned into decent players, 20% had short lived careers and 26.6% were busts. 
 
Once again the 2nd round produced a smaller return with only 20% becoming decent players, while 5.7% had short lived careers and 74.3% turned out to be busts. 
 
Once again the chance of getting a decent player dropped, but not drastically, in the later rounds. The 3rd round produced 15.1% while it rose a bit to 16.1% in the fourth round, and then dropped to an average of 6.2% in the final five rounds combined.
 
Out of the 291 picks only 43 of them (14.7%) turned into regular NHL players.
 

2005

1st ROUND (30 picks)
10... Busts
1... Short lived
15..Decent players
4... Dominant players (Sidney Crosby, Bobby Ryan, Jack Johnson and Anze Kopitar). 
 
2nd ROUND (31 picks)
20... Busts
4…  Short Lived
6...   Decent players
1...   Dominant player (Paul Stastny)
 
3rd ROUND (30 picks)
23...Busts
2...  Short Lived
5...  Decent players 
 
4th ROUND (34 picks)
28...Busts
3.... Short lived
3.... Decent players
 
5th to 7th ROUND (105 picks)
94...Busts
3...  Short lived
8...  Decent players
 
***Again I did some projections on players who look to pass 300 games and become decent players.***
 
2005 was the first year the draft dropped to seven rounds, but the numbers didn’t change that much. There were 230 players drafted with five of them becoming dominant players (2.2%), 37 turned into decent players (16.1%), 13 were short lived (5.6%),and 175 ended up being busts (76.1%).
 
In the first round you had a 13.3% chance of getting a first liner, 50% turned into decent players, 3.4% had short lived careers and 33.3% were busts. 
 
In the 2nd round the success rate drop significantly, where only 22.5% became decent players, 12.9% had short lived careers and 64.5% turned out to be busts. 
 
The 3rd round produced a 9.1% rate on a decent player, while it dipped to 5.7% in the fourth round, but it rose to an average of 8.3% in the final five rounds combined.
 
Out of the 230 picks only 42 of them (18.2%) turned into regular NHL players.
 

WRAP UP

During this ten year span there was 2703 picks, -- I don't say players because Jarret Stoll, Matt Lombardi and Lance Ward were drafted twice, and I'm sure there is more, but I didn't catch all of them. I only counted Stoll and Lombardi once in the final tally of decent players. Ward was a short-lived player -- so I'm going to say there was 2700 for argument sake.

***Feel free to let me know which other players were drafted twice, and I can re-adjust the stats, although, unless there are many, the percentages won't change that much, if any.***

In total, there was 2700 players drafted and only 439 of them (16.2%) turned into NHL players.

Thirty six of them are dominant players, which equates to only 1.3% of the drafted players.
403 of them became decent NHLers, which amounts to 14.9% of the draft picks.

Here is a breakdown of the each round during this ten-year span.

FIRST ROUND (286 picks)

25 became dominant players.   (8.8%)
148 turned into decent players. (51.7%)
113 were short lived or busts    (39.5%)

Of the 25 dominant players, 17 of them came in the top ten picks of a round.

SECOND ROUND (326 picks)

4 became dominant players.  (1.2%)
70 turned into decent players. (21.5%)
252 were short lived or busts. (77.3%)

THIRD ROUND (307 picks)

2 became dominant players.   (0.6%)
47 turned into decent NHLers. (15.2)
259 were short lived or busts.  (84.2)

FOURTH ROUND (315 picks)

27 became decent players.      (8.6%)
288 were short lived or busts.  (91.4%)

FIFTH ROUND (325 picks)

1 became a dominant player.   (0.03%)
22
turned into decent players.  (6.8%)
302
were short lived or busts.  (92.9%)

SIXTH ROUND (295 picks)

1 became a dominant player.   (0.03%)
26
turned into decent players.  (8.8%)
268 
were short lived or busts.  (90.9%) 

SEVENTH ROUND (308 picks)

became a dominant player.   (0.06%)
28
turned into decent players.  (9.1%)
268 
were short lived or busts.  (90.3%) 

EIGHTH ROUND (267 picks)

1 became a dominant player.   (0.04%)
19 
turned into decent players.  (7.1%)
247 
were short lived or busts.  (92.5%) 

NINTH ROUND (271 picks)

16 turned into decent players.  (5.9%)
255 
were short lived or busts.  (94.1%)  

CONCLUSION

It seems pretty clear that after the first round (60.5%) your chances of finding a decent NHL player become increasing lower. A second round pick will give you a 23.7% chance, you'll have a 15.8% in the 3rd round, only 8.6% in the fourth, 7.1% in the fifth, a little boost up to 9.1% in the sixth and 9.7% in the 7th round.

None of these numbers are shocking, but when people suggest that getting a 2nd rounder for "fill in the blank" is a good trade, keep in mind that you essentially have a one in four chance of turning that pick into a player. I understand that when a team is trading away an UFA that getting something is better than nothing, but unless that something actually pans out, the draft pick, in many cases, turns out to be a whole lot of nothing.

***For those who suggest I should have used players drafted in the first 30 picks in 1996-1999 to ensure it was an even 30 players for each first round, I get your point. However, the 2nd to 7th rounds in many years have a different amount based on compensatory picks so you can't use a set 30 picks for each round.***

CANADIAN TEAMS

If you are curious how the Canadian teams matched up v. one another during this ten year span here is a quick look at them.

Ottawa had elven first rounder out of their 92 picks, and three were in the top-ten. Their best pick is between Marian Hossa, 12th overall in 1997 or Jason Spezza, 2nd overall in 2001. They have done very well with their first round picks: Hossa, Spezza, Chris Phillips (1st), Martin Havlat (26th), Anton Volchenkov (21st), Tim Gleason (23rd), Patrick Eaves (29th) and Andrej Meszaros (23rd). They've produced 18 decent players and two dominant players out of their 92 picks for a solid 21.7% success rate.

Vancouver had 88 picks, ten in the first round with three in the top ten, and produced three dominant players along with eight decent ones. Their best picks were the Sedin twins 2nd and 3rd in 1999, but Ryan Kesler, 23rd overall, in 2003 was a quality pick as well. Their overall success rate is 12.5%, but with three dominant players they would grade out fairly well.

Montreal had 20 of their 94 picks turn into decent players. Andrei Markov, 6th round 1998, would most likely be their best pick. They've had three top-ten picks, Carey Price (5th, 2005), Andrei Kostitsyn (10th, 2003) and Mike Komisarek (7th, 2001) and eleven overall. They never hit a grand slam with any of their picks, but they sit with a respectful 21.2% success rate of turning picks into players.

Calgary called out 98 names, ten of them in the first round and three in the top ten. Their highest pick was 6th, twice, and they blew it both times on Rico Fata and Daniel Tkaczuk in 1998 and 1997 respectively. Their best pick was Dion Phaneuf, 9th overall, in 2003. They've seen 13 of their picks (13.2% success) become decent NHLers, but none have been very productive offensively. Derek Morris has the most points of any of their picks during this span with 382 in 927 games.

During this span the Leafs didn't seem to believe in holding onto first round picks. Out of their 92 picks, only six came in the first round, 10th, 17th, 21st and 24th three times. They did okay with Nik Antropov (10th, 1998), Brad Boyes (24th, 2000) and Alex Steen (24th, 2002), but they have since traded all three of them away along with their other first rounders, Carlo Colaiacovo and Tukka Rask. Their other first rounder, Luca Cereda (24th, 1999), never played a game in the NHL. So essentially the Leafs don't have one first rounder from this ten-year span still in the organization. Out of their 12 picks (13.0% success rate) who became regulars in the NHL, Kaberle was clearly their best selection.

Edmonton has produced 12 decent players out of 105 picks. They had twelve first round picks, the highest being sixth where they took Boyd Devereaux. Their best pick was Ales Hemsky, 13th overall, in 2001 and they had an 11.4% success rate in this time frame. Ask any Oiler fan and they will tell you their drafting was a big reason why, outside of the surprise Cup run in 2006, they were a bubble playoff team during this decade.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 positivebrontefan
February 25 2011, 10:29AM
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Jagrbaum wrote:

Mike Green taken 24th(or 25th?) overall in 2004? Not considered dominant with his 30 goal defenseman ability? I know he's struggled but c'mon hes good, you know it.

Career 365gms 79g 165a 244pts 58+/- 286PIM 878SOG 41ppg 72ppa

Included in that is 3 straight seasons of 56pts+ and two PPG seasons at 73pts+

As Gregor stated; "**If you want to add a player or two from the decent to the dominant player, I'm sure you can, but it won't affect the amount of actual NHL players each draft year provided.***"

It doesnt change the actual real players in the NHL.

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#52 Hemmertime
February 25 2011, 10:34AM
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@Jason

Interesting read. I understand the legwork put into this article, much appreciated. I wonder if this info has been diagnosed like this before. Your work will/should be ripped off and put on blogs for years.

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#53 Tron
February 25 2011, 10:37AM
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Yeah, that 2003 draft was nuts. Vanek, Fleury, Horton, Brown and the three you mentioned above are definately all solid picks too.

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#54 They're $hittie
February 25 2011, 10:46AM
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@Jason Gregor

not saying marek svatos is in the same class as malkin or comparing perry to malkin. i was saying that he was a typical european player that was overated based on two years. Malkin is a great player but again do not think he is as good as everyone makes him out to be. top 20 for sure, top ten no.

Keslers two way game is better than perrys, but Perry can still be a pest and score goals, and has other aspects to his game. Kesler seemed to have to give up one to do the other really well.

Agreed about Seabrook and Suter, but they are the number two with ther stud dman beside them, it is hard to say the value between d and forwards, just think perry is as dominant in a game as those two are.

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#55 ubermiguel
February 25 2011, 10:52AM
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@ Gregor

Great information, I appreciate it and all the work you did gather it. Bit of advice: a well formated table would convey the information more easily.

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#56 Oilcruzer
February 25 2011, 10:56AM
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@The Beaker

If a 4th 5th 6th or 7th has about a 10% chance of cracking the lineup and a 1st has a 60% chance of cracking the lineup...

...and if you're suggesting a 4th is pretty much the same value as a 6th or 7th...

...then the question was:

Is one first worth 6x the number of seventh rounders?

We are all quick to say no. But if the first has a 40% chance of being crap (and you have to pay him more to find that out), the rhetorical question is...

...Is it better to have a mitt full of late draft choices, signed at a low cost, and hope that the odd one (or more) shakes out?

(Clearly, for the sake of argument you have to leave the top 5 overall picks out of the mix)

Put it another way.

Is it better to have 3 6th rounders instead of a 2nd rounder? (probably)

How about 2 6th rounders for a 2nd?... (probably not)

What if they were 5th rounders?

I'm not trying to make any point other than speculating that there are a lot of inexact methods, and any way you run the shell game is a crap shoot.

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#57 They're $hittie
February 25 2011, 11:00AM
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Chickenplucker wrote:

And Ovechkin's goals are down. Must be the 2 year European jinx.

Malkin: 1.18 pts/game and Conn Smythe winner. Not good at all.

didnt deserve to win the conn smythe showing up for only the last series. I am not saying they are not good i am saying they are overrated. Ovechkin is awesome, but how many people said he would be the most dominant player for years and now have him rated behind 3 or 4 other guys.

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#58 They're $hittie
February 25 2011, 11:00AM
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Chickenplucker wrote:

And Ovechkin's goals are down. Must be the 2 year European jinx.

Malkin: 1.18 pts/game and Conn Smythe winner. Not good at all.

didnt deserve to win the conn smythe showing up for only the last series. I am not saying they are not good i am saying they are overrated. Ovechkin is awesome, but how many people said he would be the most dominant player for years and now have him rated behind 3 or 4 other guys.

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#59 Hemmertime
February 25 2011, 11:05AM
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From Rishaug:

Habs were pitching Maxwell to oil at one point. Looking for Penner in the deal.

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#60 Hemmertime
February 25 2011, 11:10AM
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Via Kyper: #NHL trade. Hearing Nashville D Alex Sulzer dealt to FLA for conditional pick. Done deal.

less than 5 seconds ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

NSH Making Room for Smid?

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#61 John Chambers
February 25 2011, 11:11AM
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@Hemmertime

Well then I have to admire ST's restraint for not going after any shiny object that's dangled in front of him.

Not that Maxwell is at all shiny - sounds like a crappier version of Lander and Hamilton.

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#62 c_tux
February 25 2011, 11:12AM
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Not related to the article at all but, Bulin on IR with an eye infection, Gerber re-called from OKC.

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#63 Fresh Mess
February 25 2011, 12:15PM
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A large component of determining fair value for a player is how much cap-salary is going out, as well as the value of the pick coming in.

Thanks for your work in this article JG- interesting perspective.

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#64 Ryan2
February 25 2011, 12:30PM
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It will be interesting to see if last year's draft can come close to the same kind of impact as the 2003 draft. Right now Hall, Skinner and Fowler are looking like gems, Seguin is holding his own, and Johansen looks like a potential stud centreman based on his WJHC play. There were a lot of other solid players taken in the 1st round through the 2nd that have yet to play in the show but have fairly decent upsides.

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#65 Muji 狗
February 25 2011, 12:31PM
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How is Bobby Ryan a "dominant player", but not Corey Perry? And yes, I realize you noted that he was close.

Anyway, thanks for pulling the stats together. Interesting stuff.

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#66 bretzky
February 25 2011, 12:33PM
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This is a great article Gregor, thanks for the hardwork you put into this.

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#67 They're $hittie
February 25 2011, 12:44PM
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@Chickenplucker

crosby showed up for all the series not one, and took the major lead in getting them by washington,

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#68 Mike
February 25 2011, 01:25PM
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Oilcruzer wrote:

If a 4th 5th 6th or 7th has about a 10% chance of cracking the lineup and a 1st has a 60% chance of cracking the lineup...

...and if you're suggesting a 4th is pretty much the same value as a 6th or 7th...

...then the question was:

Is one first worth 6x the number of seventh rounders?

We are all quick to say no. But if the first has a 40% chance of being crap (and you have to pay him more to find that out), the rhetorical question is...

...Is it better to have a mitt full of late draft choices, signed at a low cost, and hope that the odd one (or more) shakes out?

(Clearly, for the sake of argument you have to leave the top 5 overall picks out of the mix)

Put it another way.

Is it better to have 3 6th rounders instead of a 2nd rounder? (probably)

How about 2 6th rounders for a 2nd?... (probably not)

What if they were 5th rounders?

I'm not trying to make any point other than speculating that there are a lot of inexact methods, and any way you run the shell game is a crap shoot.

Don't forget that there is limited capacity to develop players. You're stuck against the 50-contract limit, and among those players down in OKC the coaches can only develop and shelter so many. Ice time is finite.

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#69 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
February 25 2011, 01:29PM
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They're $hittie wrote:

crosby showed up for all the series not one, and took the major lead in getting them by washington,

I find it hard to believe he got 36 points in 1 series.

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#70 Bucknuck
February 25 2011, 01:39PM
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A lot of work went into this article, and it was terribly interesting to me. I think I will refer to it more than once. It's good to see that the stats bear out the suspicion that the Oilers drafting was below par before we got Stu McGregor in charge.

Thank you, Jason Gregor. This is awesome!

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#71 They're $hittie
February 25 2011, 01:47PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I find it hard to believe he got 36 points in 1 series.

never said that either, he was critizided during the whole playoff until that lat series. With out winning the Washington series Malkin does not even get the chance to perform in the finals.

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#72 Quicksilver ballet
February 25 2011, 02:34PM
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It would be interesting to see how the first rounders break down, 1 thru 10, 11-20 and 21 thru 30.

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#73 Stan_the_Caddy
February 25 2011, 02:35PM
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Fantastic analysis Jason, thanks for posting. Hopefully it will keep the "trade Hemsky NOW" crowd quiet for at least as long as it takes to read this.

I find it's interesting to note that the % of NHL caliber players doesn't vary much year-to-year and that poor(er) draft years still produce a bucket full of "decent" players. I have to ask, do you think there is significant increase in value placed on picks by GMs during stronger draft years (early 1st rounders aside)? Or is a later round pick essentially valuled the same by GMs year-to-year?

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#74 Crash
February 25 2011, 02:51PM
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Hemmertime wrote:

From Rishaug:

Habs were pitching Maxwell to oil at one point. Looking for Penner in the deal.

Yup, and this is the type of prospect that teams want to dump while picking up other teams best scorers or players.

More than likely Maxwell never comes close to being as impactful as Penner yet this is what is being offered.

I don't expect any of our big names to move at the deadline if this is the type of return being offered. And good on ST if he doesn't pull the trigger on deals like this.

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#75 Crackenbury
February 25 2011, 03:35PM
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Another interesting twist to the information Gregor put together would be to determine the league each pick was drafted out of and the success rate for each individual league. I'd like to know the success ratio of QMJHL draft picks compared to WHL for example.

Couturier concerns me coming out of the QMJHL, but I don't really have anything to back that up other than comments I've heard about the QMJHL not being that strong.

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#76 Fresh Mess
February 25 2011, 03:35PM
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I'm really not liking any of the rumoured deals for Hemsky/Penner. So far the obvious option is to hang on, and try to extend, both of them unless the offers substantially improve.

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#77 esa tikkanen
February 25 2011, 03:46PM
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Does anyone know if Gerber needs to clear waivers to get traded?

I know he is here now but I am assuming he is up on emergency recall based on re-Khabi's injury.

But can the Oilers trade him now for a late draft pick or does he have to clear waivers first?

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#78 positivebrontefan
February 25 2011, 04:53PM
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esa tikkanen wrote:

Does anyone know if Gerber needs to clear waivers to get traded?

I know he is here now but I am assuming he is up on emergency recall based on re-Khabi's injury.

But can the Oilers trade him now for a late draft pick or does he have to clear waivers first?

You think there is shenanigans afoot?

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#79 pelhem grenville
February 25 2011, 05:30PM
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...hey tikk

why would you want to trade the Gerber?

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#80 pelhem grenville
February 25 2011, 05:38PM
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http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=47213

the guy's making minimum, 34 games played he's 19 . 12 and something....pt933 S%...both times he's played here he's won...i'm thinking he's a valuable player no?

in the AHL

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#81 Backhand
February 26 2011, 08:35AM
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Scott Cullen attempted this a couple years ago:

http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960

Same idea...that draft picks don't have a high percentage of turning into an NHL player.

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