Hot Hot Heatley

Jason Gregor
June 09 2009 11:07PM

hotheatley

With Dany Heatley announcing he wants out of Ottawa and into the Western conference you can bet that 14 teams in West are preparing their offer. The Wings can’t take Heatley because he makes more than Lidstrom and that goes against their policy, not to mention Zetterberg and Datsyuk make less as well.

It is rare to see a superstar traded for a superstar. The last time it happened, Heatley was dealt for Marian Hossa. In the West, there are only two players that fit the bill for this to happen again.

Rick Nash and Dion Phaneuf.

Those trades are at least plausible, although with Phaneuf only 24 and Nash 25, I wonder if the Jackets and Flames would have some reservations.

No other team in the western conference has a guy that would be a realistic option. The Ducks aren’t moving Getzlaf for Heatley. Getzlaf brings way more to the table. The Oilers, Blues, Wild, Avalanche, Stars, Canucks, Sharks and Coyotes have no one even close. Luongo has one year left on his deal, and the Sens have Leclaire locked in at $3.8 million.

Guys like Shea Weber, Duncan Keith and Anze Kopitar would get the discussion started but aren’t enough straight up.

So let’s look at some realistic options, and take into account age, salary and the Sens’ needs. Their most glaring need is a top two D-man, and those are hard to find, or at least a proven offensive D-man. They need some scoring depth, preferably a LW, but if he can score and plays C or RW they will take him.

I said the Wings are out, and I can guarantee that Heatley doesn’t want to go to the mess in Phoenix. We can argue all day about which destinations are the best, but I’d rather look at who can make viable offers.

Remember that it is very rare that teams come close to giving up fair value when acquiring a top-end talent in his prime. The Oilers fleeced the Blues when they got the Human Rake, the Ducks fleeced the Oilers for the same Rake and the Sharks fleeced the Bruins for Jumbo Joe. Ask Habs fans if they got market value for Patrick Roy.

The Blues got Brewer, Lynch and Woywitka. The Oilers got Lupul, Smid and 1st and a bonus 1st because the Ducks won the Cup. The Bruins got Sturm, Stuart and Wayne Primeau. The Habs got Kovalenko, Thibault and Rucinsky while Keane went with Roy.

One of the best players traded recently was Brad Richards to Dallas and the Lightning got Jeff Halpern, Mike Smith, Jussi Jokinen and 4th rounder for Richards and Johan Holmqvist. The odds are the Sens won’t get as big a return as many will predict in the next few weeks.

KINGS

They have loads of cap space and lots of good young prospects. Would Alexander Frolov and Jack Johnson be enough? With a prospect involved it would be close, as long as Johnson doesn’t actually want $5 a season. If he does he’ll be sitting out for a long time.

SHARKS

Vlasic and Ehrhoff are the most attractive on the back end, but it would take them plus a good forward to get the convo started. Marleau and his $6.3 million is not a contract the Sens would want. The Sharks biggest problem is that they only have 13 guys under contract and I don’t see them parting with Boyle. Doug Wilson has a reputation of making surprise moves, so you can’t rule out the Sharks. If the Sens could get Clowe signed then I could see the Sharks getting involved, but they would have to move Marleau after because they would have way too much salary (over $52 million) tied up in 13 guys.

STARS

How good would Joe Nieuwendyk look if one of his first moves was to acquire Heatley? The Stars have cap space to play with, but do they have enough to entice the Sens? The Sens would love Morrow but I don’t see the Stars trading their captain. They have no one who is close to a top-two D-man, so I don’t see them being in the hunt.

DUCKS

They always seem to be involved in trades. The Whitney for Kunitz deal surprised many, but they wanted him to replace Niedermayer and the Human Rake. If they move Whitney their backend becomes pretty thin. They have three young guns in Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan, but after that they have no forwards that would entice the Sens. I think the Sens would take Ryan, but I doubt Anaheim wants to move him.

BLUE JACKETS

Nash straight up would be interesting, but I doubt we’ll see that. Scott Howson has some good young players and decent depth on his backend. Would a Hejda, Klesla and Voracek get the convo started? I think it might. The Sens need some depth on the backend and while neither of those two is overly offensive, they can comfortably play 20 minutes each. Rumours are swirling that the Jackets might have to trim some salary, so I wonder how it would look if they bring in a guy making $7.5 million.

PREDATORS

They love Shea Weber and he only seems to be getting better. This would be gutsy move by the Preds, but Poile has shown a propensity to make those moves in recent years. What about Suter, Erat and Tootoo? The Sens would add just over a million in salary but they’d get three players, and Tootoo could replace Chris Neil.

BLUES

Would the Blues part with young Erik Johnson? Larry Pleau would love to make a splash and get a gunner like Heatley and could make a reasonable offer of young guys. Would Jackman, Oshie and Perron be too much or not enough proven talent? The Blues have Boyes and Backes as well. I think Pleau and the Blues have to be considered a legitimate option. The only problem is if Heatley didn’t like Cory Clouston, is there any chance he’ll play for Andy Murray?

BLACKHAWKS

They have lots of young talent but none are proven scorers just yet. Does Dale Tallon try to speed up the process and get a sniper? Trading Keith might not seem wise, but he only has a year left before he gets a big raise. I think the Hawks could put together the best offer; the question is whether Tallon wants to let his young guys grow together or try to win now? Toews and Kane seem untouchable, but Sharp, Barker and Versteeg could still be a great package. It will be interesting to watch if Tallon gives up potential for proven value. I’d go with the proven value.

AVALANCHE

After watching them hang their coach out to dry, the expected retirement of Joe Sakic, and no top end D-man that would fit the Sens’ need I don’t see any way that rookie GM Greg Sherman gets into the sweepstakes.

WILD

Chuck Fletcher would love to land Heatley to replace Gaborik. Maybe he gives the Sens permission to talk to Gaborik and if they come to a contract agreement they trade snipers. The Sens might want another body, because of Gaborik’s health history, but a Gaborik for Heatley deal would make for a great debate on who won the deal. I don’t think Johnsson, Zidlicky or Schultz is good enough as a starting point for a three-for-one deal. Outside of the Gaborik longshot I don’t see the Wild being involved.

FLAMES

It is interesting to hear how Phaneuf is perceived amongst fans and the players. In a recent poll he was voted the most overrated player in the game, while many others still see him as a Norris Trophy candidate for many years to come. The only way the Flames can bring Heatley back to his home town is by dealing one of their big tickets. I can’t see them moving Iginla or Kiprusoff so that leaves Jokinen and Regehr. No chance the Sens take Jokinen, so if they don’t want to part with Phaneuf it would have to be Regehr. The problem is the Flames don’t have any forwards that would interest the Sens, unless the Sens would take Cammalleri. And if he wants over $5 million I don’t see that happening. Heatley’s parents live just outside Calgary, so the Flames will be in the hunt, but would they deal Phaneuf? Would you Flames fans?

CANUCKS

Many of Mike Gillis’ best assets are UFAs in the Sedin Sisters and Ohlund, but could a package of Bieksa, Kesler and the speedy Raymond land him Heatley? It might, but that would leave the Canucks with eleven players signed for only $35 million, and that would end any chance of re-signing the twins. Maybe Gillis gives the Sens permission to talk to the Sisters, and if they can sign them for $11 million maybe he’d take Heatley and Filip Kuba. The Sens get some offensive depth, and the Canucks don’t trade part with a signed player. Bryan Murray will look at every option to try and keep his team competitive.

OILERS

The Oilers have depth at the one position the Sens really want; offensive D-man. Souray and Visnovsky have NMC in their contract, and their age probably doesn’t intrigue the Sens, but Gilbert and Grebeshkov are two guys the Sens would like. Gilbert has more value around the league, so a package would have to start with him. Gilbert, Cogliano and Pisani would at least get them in the conversation. Maybe the Sens ask for O’Sullivan instead of Pisani. The Sens will have no interest in Penner, Horcoff or Nilsson. So that limits the Oilers in what package they can offer, but a Gilbert, Cogliano, O’Sullivan package seems comparable to what the other teams will offer.

Heatley has a 4 million dollar signing bonus due on July 1st, and since you can’t exchange money in trades, you’d expect this trade to occur before then. You’d expect Murray to move him before then, because once teams start to sign UFAs that would reduce the amount of teams that could afford Heatley’s large salary.

I think it is realistic to say that there are 10 teams in the West who have a realistic shot of offering the Sens a package they would like. The biggest hurdle will be if Heatley agrees to go to that team. To me it is absolutely ridiculous that a player asks for a no-trade clause and then one year later wants to get traded.

Either way many teams, and their fans, will be hoping to land one of the few proven snipers in the league.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#101 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 12:50PM
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Librarian Mike wrote:

Jonathan Willis wrote: I’d be surprised if Eberle turns out to as good as O’Sullivan has. That statement scares me, considering how the general attitude is that he’s supposed to be a star for the Oilers. Well, as long as he isn’t Steve Kelly I’ll be happy.

I think we should be looking for a Sykora type player out of Eberle. Great guy to have on your 2nd line, servicable 1st liner (especially if he's your 3rd wheel on the first line). "ok" at everything else, but able to consistantly get you 22 - 27 goals.

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#102 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 12:53PM
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@ Ogden Brother:

That's pretty much how I see him. It won't be the end of the world if he's dealt.

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#103 Chris
June 10 2009, 12:55PM
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@ Ogden Brother: ~C'mon. We're gonna get Heatley for Gilbert and Nilsson. Trade Cogliano and Schremp for the 2nd overall pick. Draft Tavarres who will play with Eberle to start the 2010 season. They'll be just like Gretz and Kurri.~

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#104 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 12:57PM
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Chris wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: ~C’mon. We’re gonna get Heatley for Gilbert and Nilsson. Trade Cogliano and Schremp for the 2nd overall pick. Draft Tavarres who will play with Eberle to start the 2010 season. They’ll be just like Gretz and Kurri.~

Only better.

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#105 OvenChicken8
June 10 2009, 12:57PM
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@ Chris: *puts it into NHL 09... trade declined :( Adds Penner to Heatley trade EUREKA!!!*

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#106 Chris
June 10 2009, 01:05PM
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The fact that a shutdown center wasn't aquired at the trade deadline last year gives me pause. I wonder if the plan isn't to tolerate Cogliano as the shutdown guy untill Gagner is ready to usurpe Horcoff. Cogs would then bump up into a soft minute scoring role and Horcoff will be that shutdown guy. It could be this is the course of action Oilers management is committed to.

@ Brownlee...Gregor...:

Any thoughts?

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#107 Chris
June 10 2009, 01:09PM
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Or should I say?

@ Gregor...Brownlee...:

(I don't know if it's age before beauty or what)

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#108 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 01:11PM
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Chris wrote:

The fact that a shutdown center wasn’t aquired at the trade deadline last year gives me pause. I wonder if the plan isn’t to tolerate Cogliano as the shutdown guy untill Gagner is ready to usurpe Horcoff. Cogs would then bump up into a soft minute scoring role and Horcoff will be that shutdown guy. It could be this is the course of action Oilers management is committed to. @ Brownlee…Gregor…: Any thoughts?

God I hope not.

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#109 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 02:19PM
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@ Chris: I'm not sold that he doesnt have lateral speed. I'm not sold he has to play LW I'm not sold that he will have injury trouble, especially since he played all 82 games in both of his first 2 seasons. I'm not sold that he MUST remain a Centre. Your arguments just didnt convince me

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#110 Jason Gregor
June 10 2009, 02:41PM
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Today, Daum, Pearn and Clare Drake in studio at 4 pm...Might have to ask Pearn about Heatley I think. YOu can listen online at xxx.justagame.ca

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#111 Chris
June 10 2009, 03:13PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

Fair enough. We disagree... Though it's not like I'm the only guy who figures Cogliano's game won't translate well to the wing. BTW, has anyone ever heard Tambellini actually say it's a priority to find a two way shutdown center?

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#112 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 03:13PM
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Would Pearn have any interest in the Springfield job? Him in Springfield and Daum as an assistant for the Oil?

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#113 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 03:18PM
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Hey Chris, think I'm with ya. Why trade a winger and then move a center to the wing when you can move the center and keep the winger? People on here have made the same argument about adding Bouwmeester and then trading a d man for a forward. You can't argue one way on one of them and then argue against that same methodology with the other. Can you?

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#114 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 03:20PM
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@ RossCreek:

I'd say it depends if you think there's a big difference between O'Sullivan and Cogliano.

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#115 Chris
June 10 2009, 03:43PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

Oh and just to be a pain:

I didn't say Cogliano lacks lateral speed. I said the skating coach said Hemsky had superior lateral movement (To Cogliano). When it's said that Cogliano has elite skating ability it's fair to compare him to other great skaters.

I didn't say he HAS to play left wing. I said he would probably be more prolific on the left side.

I agree he hasn't been injured. This proves nothing. I said he's more likely to be injured on the wing. He has mostly played center: where he wasn't injured.

I didn't say he MUST be a center. ~You could skate him on defence or put him in goal also~... I said he plays BEST at center. Cogliano has principally played center on every serious team he has ever played for: OHA Buzzers: Center. Team Canada: Center. Michigan Wolverines: Center Oilers: Center.

I guess he doesn't have to play center any more than Smid needs to play defence.

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#116 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 03:45PM
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@ JW Fair enough. I guess I'm of the belief that there isn't a huge difference. I like a 2nd line of Penner-Gagner/Cogliano-O'Sullivan. Gags or Cogs? Me thinks Gags has a bigger upside.

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#117 Chris
June 10 2009, 03:54PM
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@ RossCreek:

This is my only beef with BPA drafting. Sure you grab the talent... but if you lack the will to move talented players to balance your depth chart and instead slot players in at positions where they are less likely to succeed: are you really any further ahead?

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#118 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 03:58PM
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Chris wrote:

I guess he doesn’t have to play center any more than Smid needs to play defence.

Lots of players need to move away from their natural positions in the NHL. Good for him that he managed to be a C despite his terrible faceoff %. That wont last forever. Moving from C to W isnt exactly the same as moving Smid from D to C. Although if MacT had another year he could turn Smid into another 4th line forward. Just what this team needed.

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#119 Chris
June 10 2009, 04:02PM
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Since were just shuffling people around instead of managing the roster why not:

Penner-Hemsky-Heatley. 2/3rds size. 2/3rds speed. 100% skill.

~Just convert Hemsky to center. Why not? These guys are all 100% interchangeable aren't they?~

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#120 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 04:04PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Chris wrote: I guess he doesn’t have to play center any more than Smid needs to play defence. Lots of players need to move away from their natural positions in the NHL. Good for him that he managed to be a C despite his terrible faceoff %. That wont last forever. Moving from C to W isnt exactly the same as moving Smid from D to C. Although if MacT had another year he could turn Smid into another 4th line forward. Just what this team needed.

*Looks forward to MacT getting hired elsewhere and finishing ahead of the Oilers*

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#121 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 04:05PM
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Chris wrote:

Since were just shuffling people around instead of managing the roster why not: Penner-Hemsky-Heatley. 2/3rds size. 2/3rds speed. 100% skill. ~Just convert Hemsky to center. Why not? These guys are all 100% interchangeable aren’t they?~

Some guys can move some can't. O'sully has played all over the forward line, and said himeself that he didn't care which of the three spots he was in.

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#122 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 04:08PM
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Chris wrote:

~Just convert Hemsky to center. Why not? These guys are all 100% interchangeable aren’t they?~

Come on. Stop acting like no one has ever moved from Centre to Wing.

Ogden Brother wrote:

*Looks forward to MacT getting hired elsewhere and finishing ahead of the Oilers*

~because he's proven himself to be a great coach.~ The guy has averaged enough wins a season to keep his team out of the playoffs on a consistent basis. I hope he signs in Dallas or Minnesota, I'm tired of seeing the Oilers lose to those teams.

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#123 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 04:08PM
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@ Chris. I'm saying I agree with you. I would trade the center rather than trade the winger and convert the center to wing (all things being relatively equal). People say don't sign Bou cuz the Oil already have good d. I say go ahead and sign Bou then trade a d for a f. I think we're agreeing.

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#124 Chris
June 10 2009, 04:17PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Lots of players need to move away from their natural positions in the NHL.

Yes. Failures. Lots of marginal, tweener type players re-invent themselves to stick around in the NHL. Cogliano isn't in that category IMO. As for faceoffs; Gagner isn't that much better in the dot than Cogliano. Do you propose he transitions to the wing also?

I don't mind Cogliano playing the wing for a shift, or a couple of games due to injury, etc... I just think it's a terrible waste/bad idea to just slot Cogliano in on the second line RW and hope it's okay. Cogliano has way more value to this organization via trade as an emerging young talent at center, than playing as a marginal, smallish winger.

Some players are more versatile than others. Does anyone remember the trouble Cole had swapping wings? Or how about Penner: he can win faceoffs but lacks the skating ability to play center. When I say THAT everyone agrees: but when I say Cogliano has the skating ability to be an ideal center but lacks size to be a really effective winger: suddenly it's controversial. I don't get it.

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#125 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 04:30PM
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#126 Chris
June 10 2009, 04:39PM
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@ RossCreek: Yes. I figured you were with me...

*wipes a tear*

Thanks.

With Horcoff under a long term contract, the emergence of Gagner, and Katz hellbent on bringing in a big ticket player: it's unlikly Cogliano will be an Oiler longterm. I doubt there will be money to resign both Cogliano and Gagner after next season. Why not get something for one of them now? If I'm right, and Cogliano has a poor season on the wing his trade value will be lower. If Arch is right, and Cogs rocks the wing, isn't injured, and produces at the same level as last year... does his value really increase? In these terms, it may make sense to move Cogliano now.

I agree with Arch that Tambellini may be able to snag Heatley without giving up Cogs. That would be great; because then (here is were Arch will disagree again) Cogliano can be used in a seperate deal to address a different need, for toughness, goaltending, a physical top four D...etc.

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#127 cm
June 10 2009, 05:04PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ Jason Gregor: I would be shocked if Eberle surpassed O’Sullivan.

I agree with this 100% I think the sully is one of the better small guys on our roster and If I had to choose which one I would part with I would stick with the old addage that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the nest.

I also think that alot of fans in ottawa might be happy to get eberle after watching him at the tourny of small sample size.

If any of souray/vish/Gilbert, Cogs/Pisani/Nilson and eberle/shremp/10 pick can land heatley I think its a no brainer.

I also don't feel that the 10th overall pick is untradeable. Its not a pick where we would be landing a generational talent and its not guaranteed that we would even get a star let alone a super star. Throw it in if it can get the heater

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#128 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 05:22PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Chris wrote: ~Just convert Hemsky to center. Why not? These guys are all 100% interchangeable aren’t they?~ Come on. Stop acting like no one has ever moved from Centre to Wing. Ogden Brother wrote: *Looks forward to MacT getting hired elsewhere and finishing ahead of the Oilers* ~because he’s proven himself to be a great coach.~ The guy has averaged enough wins a season to keep his team out of the playoffs on a consistent basis. I hope he signs in Dallas or Minnesota, I’m tired of seeing the Oilers lose to those teams.

Project for you. Check the difference St Louis had between this past year and the year previous and then look at Edmontons move in points 07/08 vs 06/07... look at the circumstances around it.

Guess who's up for the Jack Adams this year?

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#129 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 05:23PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Archaeologuy wrote: Chris wrote: ~Just convert Hemsky to center. Why not? These guys are all 100% interchangeable aren’t they?~ Come on. Stop acting like no one has ever moved from Centre to Wing. Ogden Brother wrote: *Looks forward to MacT getting hired elsewhere and finishing ahead of the Oilers* ~because he’s proven himself to be a great coach.~ The guy has averaged enough wins a season to keep his team out of the playoffs on a consistent basis. I hope he signs in Dallas or Minnesota, I’m tired of seeing the Oilers lose to those teams. Project for you. Check the difference St Louis had between this past year and the year previous and then look at Edmontons move in points 07/08 vs 06/07… look at the circumstances around it. Guess who’s up for the Jack Adams this year?

Also, looking forward to you ended up with egg on your face in the next 2-3 years.

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#130 Jason Gregor
June 10 2009, 09:45PM
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Chris wrote:

I wonder if the plan isn’t to tolerate Cogliano as the shutdown guy untill Gagner is ready to usurpe Horcoff. Cogs would then bump up into a soft minute scoring role and Horcoff will be that shutdown guy. It could be this is the course of action Oilers management is committed to.

Cogliano can't be a shut down guy because he can't win a faceoff. I don't see any situation that has him in a shut down role until Gagner becomes a #1.

RossCreek wrote:

Would Pearn have any interest in the Springfield job? Him in Springfield and Daum as an assistant for the Oil?

Daum will be in Springfield I would expect, and when I spoke with Perry today I got the sense he is open to many options, but I didn't mention the AHL. I'm pretty sure he has a year left on his deal with the Rangers, so I doubt he'd go to the AHL this year.

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#131 Jason Gregor
June 10 2009, 10:09PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ Jason Gregor: I would be shocked if Eberle surpassed O’Sullivan.

What does that prove? They played in different leagues. What was their icetime and PP time? If O'Sullivan played in every situation and on the PP he would naturally get more points.

You can disagree with my point, but it is laughable that your clique (Staples, Kurri etc) think it is logic that because his junior numbers were better than Eberle's that automatically Eberle can't match O'Sullivan's totals.

You can like O'Sullivan, but for anyone to suggest that it is logical to believe because his junior numbers were better than Eberle means Eberle won't become him is not true or logical.

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#132 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 10:31PM
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@ Jason Gregor:

The WHL and OHL really aren't that dissimilar in their level of competition.

How would you compare them, beyond looking at their respective records? O'Sullivan was a better player on an inferior team; I really don't have any axe to grind here but I'm trying to get a value for Eberle. From comparing him to other players - of which O'Sullivan is an easy and known example, but hardly the only one - I'm not overly optimistic.

You can think it's laughable, but you haven't suggested any better way to evaluate him, or done anything to counter the argument.

The fact that Eberle has been a much inferior offensive producer in junior would seem to indicate that he'll be an inferior offensive producer as a professional. It isn't concrete, but it is indicative.

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#133 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 10:41PM
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@ Jason Gregor:

As for my clique, I'm assuming you clicked over to Copper and Blue and looked at who agreed with me; I'm hardly in constant agreement with either Kurri or David Staples (if you'd scrolled one post down, you'd see Kurri balling me out for being overly generous to Ottawa in my Heatley trade proposal).

The fact of the matter is that without other proof, three years of superior junior totals tip the scales in O'Sullivan's favour - and that is definitively logic. We take our known information - imperfect though it may be - and come to a conclusion. Illogic would saying that Eberle should be rated higher than O'Sullivan despite his inferior totals without offering any other evidence.

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#134 flamesfan12
June 10 2009, 11:28PM
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Just for the record, my friend lives two doors down from Heatleys parents. They live in Canyon Meadows. Ive met him before!

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#135 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 11:32PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Also, looking forward to you ended up with egg on your face in the next 2-3 years.

Doubt it will happen.

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#136 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 11:40PM
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Looks like everybody's about to get their wish. Marc Crawford to be named new coach in Dallas.

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#137 Bob Cob
June 11 2009, 08:24AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

The WHL and OHL really aren’t that dissimilar in their level of competition

The OHL and QMJHL have always been scorer leagues, the WHL is the more defensive based league. Naturally if you have talent the you can put up big points in the OHL and QMJHL, look at the scoring leaders from year to year and you can almost bet on the fact that the OHL and QMJHL will have 30-45 more points than that of the scoring leaders in the WHL. I would take Eberle's less points in a more defensive league opposed to O'Sullivan because it shows that Eberle is a harder worker and is more willing to go to the harder area's on the ice to score.

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#138 Jonathan Willis
June 11 2009, 08:38AM
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Bob Cob wrote:

it shows that Eberle is a harder worker and is more willing to go to the harder area’s on the ice to score.

How does it show that?

It's like saying that Jaromir Jagr (who scored fewer points than, say, Alex Ovechkin in a more defensive league - the KHL) scored less points in a more defensive league and it shows that he's a harder worker who is more willing to go into harder areas on the ice to score.

It makes no sense.

Eberle may be a harder worker than O'Sullivan, but the fact that he scores less doesn't prove it.

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#139 Bob Cob
June 11 2009, 08:38AM
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Bob Cob wrote:

look at the scoring leaders from year to year and you can almost bet on the fact that the OHL and QMJHL will have 30-45 more points than that of the scoring leaders in the WHL

Evidently that didn't apply this year, I would still take Eberle over O'Sullivan.

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#140 Jason Gregor
June 11 2009, 10:55AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

O’Sullivan was a better player on an inferior team;

Meaning because he had crap teammates he got more of an opportunity.

The list is long with players who outscored other guys in junior and never did anything in the NHL.

And other players who didn't have great junior numbers but have produced in the NHL beyond their junior numbers.

My point was O'Sullivan is not more than a low end second liner. One 22 goal season says so. Do you rank him better than Kotalik? Who you weren't a big fan of when the Oilers acquired him. Kotalik has four 20 goal seasons. If O'Sullivan is more than a low end 2nd liner, what does that make Kotalik?

I'd rather trade O'Sullivan than Eberle at this point. One because the O'Sullivan and Nilsson aren't that far apart, look at their numbers. There is no need for both of them on this team. THey are similar players, and Nilsson has no value to speak of at this point.

Eberle is at least a year away and probably two, so it will be awhile before we find out if he is any good, and realistically for the Oilers they are at least two years away from being a contender. When they are better in two years, they could bring Eberle along slowly and shelter him with easier minutes his first few years.

That being said if the Sens say they will do the deal if Eberle is the 3rd guy and not O'Sullivan I'd still do it, because scoring goals is the most influencial part of the game. No other single event has more effect in a game. One goal can change the momentum and outlook of a game quicker than anything, and the Oilers don't have a true sniper.

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#141 Curious
June 11 2009, 11:18AM
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I think we all need to take stats with a grain of salt. You cannot compare players playing in different Junior leagues, different teams different circumstances. Sometimes you have to throw stats out the window and look at what you got and make a decision based on which player is best. Like on Jason's show yesterday, when Pearn and Daum were talking about all the video tech they have access to, walking in between periods and reviewing breakouts. Mr. Drake didnt have that tech in his day, bottom line he looked at what his players gave him, put them in a situation to succeed and I dont think you can argue with his results. We have stats for everything now and it is awful dangerous to base opinions based solely on stats.

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#142 The Menace
June 11 2009, 11:18AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

One goal can change the momentum and outlook of a game quicker than anything, and the Oilers don’t have a true sniper.

They don't even have a pretend sniper, or one who thinks he could be a sniper one day.

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#143 Jonathan Willis
June 11 2009, 11:36AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

My point was O’Sullivan is not more than a low end second liner. One 22 goal season says so. Do you rank him better than Kotalik? Who you weren’t a big fan of when the Oilers acquired him. Kotalik has four 20 goal seasons.

They aren't similar players. Kotalik's not even a second-liner at EV strength (at least, not over the last few years), but he's an elite powerplay contributer. O'Sullivan's lousy on the powerplay but he's great at even-strength and on the PK.

At even-strength, O'Sullivan's easily a second-liner, while Kotalik is not. On the other hand, Kotalik has shiny goal totals because he's great with the man advantage, so even though he doesn't score a ton at EV he's still adds a lot ot the team. Trying to reduce things to Player X has 20 goals, Player Y does not, therefore Player X is a second-liner and Player Y is not is a vast oversimplification.

As for the Kotalik trade, I still don't like it. He's a UFA this summer, so even if he comes back the Oilers aren't getting anything they couldn't have waited a month for anyway, so that 2nd round pick in a very good draft (probably the best since '03 from what I've read) only bought 19 games.

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#144 The Menace
June 11 2009, 11:59AM
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@ Jonathan Willis: At the time they made trade, they were either in a playoff position, or still in hunt. it's easy to look back now and say it was only for 19 games. At the time of the trade though, I'm sure they were hoping to get more games out of the season!

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#145 Jason Gregor
June 11 2009, 12:01PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

O’Sullivan’s lousy on the powerplay but he’s great at even-strength and on the PK. At even-strength, O’Sullivan’s easily a second-liner, while Kotalik is not. On the other hand, Kotalik has shiny goal totals because he’s great with the man advantage, so even though he doesn’t score a ton at EV he’s still adds a lot ot the team. Trying to reduce things to Player X has 20 goals, Player Y does not, therefore Player X is a second-liner and Player Y is not is a vast oversimplification.

You know that 45 of O'Sullivan's 114 goals in junior came on the PP. He was a pretty good PP guy in junior.

Out of his 43 NHL goals seven are PP goals. O'Sullivan is a .20 GPG guy so far.

Kotalik has 121 goals and 40 are on the PP and he is a 0.27 GPG guy. He is a 0.18 EV GPG player, while O'Sullivan is a 0.17 EV GPG player.

Even on five on five Kotalik outscores him. My point in all of this is that I think you are overvaluing O'Sullivan.

You said Kotalik isn't as good five on five, but he actually scores just a bit more than O'Sullivan.

O'Sullivan is a better skater, and arguably a bit better defensively, but his stats don't show that he is more productive EV.

I still say he is a low end second liner at best.

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#146 Jonathan Willis
June 11 2009, 02:05PM
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@ Jason Gregor:

That comparison works, if

a) you only look at goals and b) you look at the entire career of each player and c) you ignore ice-time

Allowing for ice-time, last year Liam Reddox put up more points than Ales Kotalik 5-on-5. The comparison holds true for the year before as well.

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#147 Jason Gregor
June 11 2009, 03:15PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ Jason Gregor: That comparison works, if a) you only look at goals and b) you look at the entire career of each player and c) you ignore ice-time Allowing for ice-time, last year Liam Reddox put up more points than Ales Kotalik 5-on-5. The comparison holds true for the year before as well.

I didn't ignore icetime with Kotalik and O'Sullivan. I just pointed out that Kotalik scores more five on five than O'Sullivan, which you said wasn't the case.

And just curious how Reddox put up more points than Kotalik 5 on 5 previous to this season, if it was Reddox's first year in the NHL.

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#148 Curious
June 11 2009, 03:49PM
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Thats why stats are bogus sometimes. Now you are comparing a decent second line player to a lucky to be on a fourth line role player and you found stats to say they are the same. What a crock.

Would you have been happier if the Oilers brass did nothing at deadline day? They thought Kotalik might be worth a shot. Didnt work. Oh well at least they did something. I would for one have been really pissed if they stood pat.

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#149 Colin
June 11 2009, 04:00PM
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Curious wrote:

Would you have been happier if the Oilers brass did nothing at deadline day? They thought Kotalik might be worth a shot. Didnt work. Oh well at least they did something. I would for one have been really pissed if they stood pat.

Yes I'd rather have a solid plan than tossing away good picks on a rental for a shot at 7th-8th place and a very very slim chance at advancing past round 1.

Until very recently it seemed most of what the team did was a reaction to public feeling about the team. I'd rather a solid long term plan was in place than reacting to the perceived problems of the vastly ignorant public.

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#150 Curious
June 11 2009, 04:10PM
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Is Kotalik not a goal scoring winger? Did we not believe that was a missing element? At the deadline we were right at 8th. So you traded a second rounder for someone who may have fit with your #1 player who has no one else to play with on the top line. If it worked out, you have the first shot at signing Kotalik.

Sorry guys it was not that bad of a move. It was worth a shot. You have to believe in what you have and try to make it better. Thats what they did and I think it was a good move.

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