UFA Options: Dallas Stars
Jonathan Willis
June 02 2009 11:52PM
UFA Options is a continuing series that gives a brief run-down of the unrestricted free agent market this summer, team-by-team. Our next team for consideration is the Dallas Stars.
Joe Nieuwendyk has a reputation as smart man, but as a rookie general manager he’s about to enter one of the busiest times of the season. The draft is coming up at the end of this month, and on July 1st eight regulars - including key members of the team – are about to hit unrestricted free agency.
On the other hand, with nearly 19-million dollars coming off the books, he’ll certainly have some flexibility to craft his team in the days ahead.
Jere Lehtinen
The three-time Selke trophy winner has long had a reputation for being one of the top defensive players in the NHL, and he did nothing to tarnish that this season, outscoring tough competition. Unfortunately, for the second year in a row, injuries held the Finn to 48 games and durability is starting to become a serious concern.
Lehtinen came over to North America for the 1995-96 season; he’s played 818 games since then – 1 with the Michigan K-Wings and 817 with Dallas. He’s more of a goal scorer than a play maker and if healthy generally scores between 25 and 30 goals in a season. If he hits the market, there are a lot of teams who could use a veteran like him.
Brendan Morrison
The 31 points that Morrison recorded this season is the lowest mark over a full year of his entire NHL career. Coming off a serious injury the year before, Morrison disappointed in Anaheim (something that seems to happen to Brian Burke’s ex-Canucks, whenever he finds a spot for them). He picked up the pace in Dallas, recording 9 points in 19 games.
The smallish forward has been durable over the years; before missing 43 games in 2007-08 he had played six straight seasons without mising a game. He’s creative with the puck and a wizard on the powerplay (at least in previous years), but at this point it’s fair to ask if he can bounce back to the 50-point plateau offensively. For a team in need of a cheap second-line centre, Morrison may not be a bad bet.
Steve Begin
The smallish Begin is a high-energy player, and I suppose he has to be; he hasn’t eclipsed the thirty-point mark at any level since junior. Plays with reckless abandon and is generally a good penalty-killer, too. He’s forged an unlikely NHL career and at this point is a welcome addition to any team’s fourth-line.
Joel Lundqvist
The less famous Lundqvist is average-sized, and while he’s contributed offensively in Sweden and the AHL, so far his impact at the NHL level has been minimal, and at 27 years of age it’s entirely possible that it will stay that way.
One thing Lundqvist does bring to the table is a high-energy game; he perpetually rang up the penalty minutes during his career in Sweden, and while his penalty totals have not been excessive in North America he likes to initiate contact. A good fourth-line option at this point.
Landon Wilson
Landon Wilson’s had an up-and-down career. He was a first round pick of Tortono out of the USHL in 1993, and spent two seasons in an excellent program at the University of North Dakota. During that time he was traded to Quebec and made his NHL debut in 1995-96 with Colorado. He also played for Boston, Phoenix and Pittsburgh before trying his luck in Europe during the NHL lockout. He had one season in Finland and three very nice seasons in Switzerland before coming back to North America this past season. He spent most of this past year in Dallas, only playing 15 games in the AHL, but missed a bunch of time with a rib injury.
He’s been called an “underachiever” and labelled as someone who doesn’t make good use of his physical talents but he played a gritty game this past season and adds size to the fourth line (6’3”, 226lbs). He’s got a decent offensive skillset, and while he doesn’t have much of a track record on the penalty kill he would be a great depth addition for a team needing a cheap fourth liner who can get the job done. I’m a big fan of contending teams adding depth players like Wilson; while breaking in prospects is great a veteran presence comes in handy when injuries strike – particularly a veteran presence who can actually play the game.
Mark Parrish
Minnesota bought out Parrish, and when they did Dallas took a chance on him, signing him to a bargain contract. Even so, it probably wasn’t a worthwhile investment. Parrish has never been a fluid skater, and while Mike Milbury once considered him (and Oleg Kvasha) to be worth Roberto Luongo and Olli Jokinen, Parrish has always been a somewhat one-dimensional offensive player. With his offense dried up, he doesn’t bring much to the table.
Sergei Zubov
Sergei Zubov has long been one of the most underrated defensemen in the league. Unfortunately, he’s now 38 years old, and he’s played a grand total of 56 games over the last two years; between hip and foot injuries he has missed a ton of time. If healthy, he’s a difference-maker on the ice, but it’s difficult to see him with any team other than Dallas.
Darryl Sydor
Darryl Sydor has nicely rebounded since a disappointing season with Pittsburgh in 2007-08. He’s not overly physical and at his age (37 last month) injury and physical wear and tear are concerns (although in fairness he’s been relatively healthy over the past few years). He can still make a good first pass, but no longer provides the offensive output that he did when he was younger.
In conclusion, Sydor’s a decent veteran option to round out a defense corps and a useful player, so long as he’s played within his limitations.
Chris wrote:
Bingo
@ Chris
Okay... look beyond goal totals... hmmm....
Chris' wet dream lineup
FIRST LINE Chris Clark - Shawn Horcoff - Donald Brashear ( this line has power power power and one of the top 20 centers in the game. every stanley cup winning team needs this)
SECOND LINE J. Ruutu - T.Ruutu - Pisani (hey, it's like the Sedin brothers but at a discounted price. Since goals and results don't matter, their heart will make up for it. Tuomo is Forsberg, Jarkko is a shootout star and Pisani is the best.)
I could go on.
Results and statistics matter. Horcoff fails as a #1 center in all categories. Face it, he's a checking center. Ottawa tried Fisher as a #2 and Atlanta tried Holik as a #1...
CALL A SPADE A SPADE and get a reality check. If you want me to take you seriously (since you obviously care what I think), then start making sense.
@ Chris
Okay… look beyond goal totals… hmmm….
Chris’ wet dream lineup
FIRST LINE Chris Clark - Shawn Horcoff - Donald Brashear ( this line has power power power and one of the top 20 centers in the game. every stanley cup winning team needs this)
SECOND LINE J. Ruutu - T.Ruutu - Pisani (hey, it’s like the Sedin brothers but at a discounted price. Since goals and results don’t matter, their heart will make up for it. Tuomo is Forsberg, Jarkko is a shootout star and Pisani is the best.)
I could go on.
Results and statistics matter. Horcoff fails as a #1 center in all categories. Face it, he’s a checking center. Ottawa tried Fisher as a #2 and Atlanta tried Holik as a #1…
CALL A SPADE A SPADE and get a reality check. If you want me to take you seriously (since you obviously care what I think), then start making sense.
Archaeologuy wrote:
thank you thank you thank you!!!
Archaeologuy wrote:
This is overly simplistic even for you. There are second line centermen who feast on soft opposition for those point totals. We have been through this argument many times before: a) There is more to player evaluation than tabulating point totals. b) the plus minus stat is a poor indicator of overall defensive ability. Horcoff, when not saddled with taking EVERY important faceoff; killing every penalty; or recovering from a serious, serious injury: has also posted near PPG totals... much like your precious Hemsky (Who can do none of those things) Hemsky is a top ten right winger. Horcoff is at LEAST a top 25 center. Hold your nose and forget that you dislike him. Ignore the contract, and take a good look. Horcoff is a good player. I expect he will be HUGELY important under the Quinn/Renny system; and will have a bounceback year.
@ Archaeologuy: Look you have Austin agreeing with you. You want to stand on that side of the line..?. Or maybe you should take a careful look at what you're saying.
@ Chris: @ Ogden Brother:
I said top 40. To me Horc fits between 30-35. This WAS a bad year, but I can likely name 20 guys that are hands down better options as 1st line centres. As all around players Horc might score higher than those guys, but that isnt my concern when I'm looking for someone to score and I'm down in a game. That's where i wish the Oil had the option of deploying Horc as a 2nd line centre with regular PP time.
Ogden Brother wrote:
I only counted 15 Centres that get paid more than him next year (i didnt count UFAs). All were stars in the NHL.
For arguments sake:
Crosby Malkin Dasyuk Getzlaf Zetts Thorton Vinny Richards Staal Savard Spezza Sedin Carter Backstrom Kopitar Franzen (listed as a center yet he only took 250 draws and seems to be playing on the Wing when ever I see them) Toews B Richards Rebiro Marleau Arnott Jokenin Roy (Horcoff at least has to start coming into the convo here) M Koivu Weiss Zajac Gomez Brier Drury Langkow
@ Austin Ayala: I'm a little confused as to why the 52nd and 53rd post are identical with different authors.
Chris wrote:
This is not to say I wouldn't be excited to see an upgrade at first line center. I've bashed Horcoff plenty of times wishing the Oilers had a top ten center under contract.
Archaeologuy wrote:
I counted 18 before for 3 - 7 guys that had a good chance getting more.
As a non Oiler fan, I can say I'd put Horcoff in the 25-35 range. If you compare him to guys like Derek Roy (4), Daymond Langkow (4.5) or Mikko Koivu (3.25) his contract looks bad. If you compare him to guys like Brad Richards (7.8), Chris Drury (7.05) and Horcoff's 5.5 contract doesn't look that terrible.
TonyT wrote:
Haha
Chris, are you showing your split personality?
I think Gilbert Brule has a shot at being the Oiler's franchise center within the next 2-3 years.
What's my source? My intuition.
Chris wrote:
A regretable side effect of being right is that people who are wrong about other things still agree with you.
Chris wrote:
Sorry, this is even worse than my normally simple take on matters concerning the NHL? Didnt mean to be so simple. I can try to be more complex about the question of whether or not Horcoff is a top 20 Centre in the league, but if a simple answer to a simple question doesnt suffice then perhaps the problem is the question.
Chris wrote:
I never said he was a bad player, I just dont think he's top 30. There was still nobody better on the Oilers. Maybe next year Gagner will have a breakout year, but that's no guarantee.
@ Ogden Brother: Thanks. If you can get past the name recognition factor of guys like Brier and Gomez and really analyze thier play; and even contract performance; Horcoff stacks up nicely. He is one of the better two way centermen in the league. It would be nice if the Oilers had a guy like Richards playing with Hemsky, and Horcoff could provide depth and maybe chip in twenty goals playing on PP#2, and with Moreau on the third line... but that just isn't the reality of the current situation. Gagner will be ready in two or three years to step up if no other changes are made.
RossCreek wrote:
I would say that's about right (25 - 35) and the 25th - 35th biggest center cap hits are 4 to 4.7 (went 24th - 34th because NHL numbers has Zets listed as a L) so the average salary would be 4.35.
Centers who are likely to bump that average up this summer:
Sedin Cammy Sundin Kessel
So realistically by the end of the summer the average of the 25th - 35th highest paid centers could resonably be in the 4.5 range... leaving Horc a million over paid. Big deal.
Austin Ayala wrote:
It's like you're trying to look as stupid as possible. Mission Accomplished.
@ RossCreek:
I never said Horcoff was a top twenty. I said you could argue he's a top twenty. Look at Ogden's list, modify it any way you choose and let the arguing begin. It is absolutely cut and dried that Vin Lecavalier is a better center than Horcoff. It isn't so cut and dried that Langkow is. I also wasn't trying to be dragged into a contract evaluation. Good young players always outproduce their contracts, UFA eligable vetrans rarely do.
I wanted to debate the merits of Lehtinen. These Horcoff, Hemsky, Penner discussions get old.
Granato got the old green weiner this morning. BIG SURPRISE! ;)
@ Chris: I like Lehtinen, but I think the Oil should be going after someone a little younger to fill that defensive forward roll. I think he will be looking #1 for a winning team, as opposed to some money.
Ogden Brother wrote:
Thanks for that.
Also thanks to Archeology for bringing up this years stats on Horc. It is interesting that in a bad year his stats still show him in the top 40, wheras in a good year he sure climbs the chart. I am curious what he will playing like next year. I think he is one of those players that will benefit from a new coach.
Good break downs...1 million too much isn't too bad considering Horc has the ability to play at the 5 - 5.5million range. I think he'll rebound this year he seems to be a one up, one down kinda player.
Cam wrote:
This was the 2nd best year he's ever had for point total. He has had much better years of point per game production, but he is terribly inconsistent. If history means anything then he will have a better season next year (except he will be due for a huge injury to coincide with that).
He can be a very good player, that's probably why I was SO disappointed with him this season.
@ Archaeologuy: I tryed asking this before Austin stirred things up... Nieuwendyk will probably sign Lehtinen before July. If he doesn't should Tambellini risk offering him a three year deal worth 10 million? At a glance: I'd say no. But if you're willing to take a chance on Lehtinen's health and remember that all UFA's get an overpay... Lehtinen really is the PERFECT type of player to complement young Gagner while pushing Hemsky to round out HIS game. It might be worth the risk. Any thoughts? Am I overvaluing Lehtinen?
what do you folks think of Gilbert O"sullivan and cogliano for Lecavalier? Gives us one legitimate star, gives Tampa three up and coming very good players to go with Stamkos and either Hedman or Tavares. Lecavalier's salary is 10 million but cap hit is under 7 million. we drop 8 million in salary cap to pick up 7, tampa drops 10 million in payroll to pick up 8 million and get three players instead of 1.
i love the idea but that is because I came up with it. what do you think of it>?
chris i think lehtinen is too injury prone, fwiw
Austin Ayala wrote:
Your concept of what is a #1 center fails. His defensive play asside.
A number #1 center outscorers the other teams best at even. You know during the 65% of the play. There were 8 centers in the league who outscored the best. Two are rfa's this year: Bolland Zajac One is Ufa and asking for 6.5 to 7M Sedin One is a 5.5M cap hit next year in EDM. The other four have cap hits of: 7.2M in SJS 8.25M in CAR 8.7M in PIT and 8.7M in PIT.
I really want to know what your standard of a #1 center is. Me thinks god would have a hard time being a #1 center on your team.
Please tell me you are not one of those pathetic people who only look at points to establish a quality center.
@ Chris: I dont think the Oil can go after a proven Vet like Lehtinen and afford to over pay for him unless they shed salary first. For example, I dont think there's room for Pisani and Lehtinen on this team. I agree that a guy like Lehtinen can teach a young forward like gagner a lot about defensive play by playing with him. The risk is huge because the kids will need new contracts after next season.
Chris wrote:
He'd be an option, I'd prefer to focus our defensive aquisitions at center though: Pahlson/Maholtra ext
Personally, if I were the Oil I'd probably pass on Lehtinen because of age. I do however, still see some value in him. To me both the Flames and Oilers should take a look at Mikael Samuelsson as a 5-8 forward. And the Oil should take a stab at Martin Havlat if the Hawks can't keep him. What kind of offers, if any, would THEE NATION throw out there for Marian Gaborik?
esa tikkanen wrote:
Before Arch, and Willis explode: I would do that deal. Similar salary both ways so the Oilers would have the cash to sign a goalie and a physical top four defenceman. The Oilers would have a good first line even with Penner on it; and Horcoff could drop to third line duty in the all important shutdown role. IMO LeCavalier wouldn't perform up to that contract in the Western conference... but he could be the key to getting Hemsky to further out-perform his.
rickithebear wrote:
Points matter for a 1st line Centre. Dont tell me you're one of those pathetic people who only looks at FO% to establish a quality centre.
rickithebear wrote:
What stat is it that you're looking at and where are you getting it from?
esa tikkanen wrote:
Did you call Brian Lawton? Do you think he'll go for it?
Chris wrote:
Maybe Stauffer can text him for us
@ rickithebear: Arch uses point totals almost exclusively to evaluate EVERY player... except the goalies. He waives Hemsky's near PPG status as proof that Hemsky is a marqee player. @ Archaeologuy: C'mon Arch. I like you... but you know you do.
@ Chris: If every player needed to have his game parsed down into extremely fringe statistics before it looked like he might be an OK player then no one would bother with regular stats. I'm sorry, but we're talking about the 1st line. The 1st line is there to score, it should be the most important line on any team. 1st line players who are good at their job will produce points. Nothing I've said is rocket surgery or brain science.
You want to talk about the value of players on lines 2, 3, and 4? Then you can start finding the fringe stats tabulated by diehards with misused Math skills.
I will not apologize for not putting more stock into a 1st line player's (insert random seldom heard of statistic) number and forgetting the fact that he can or cant score goals or create any friggin offense.
Most of the conversations have been concerning the 1st line. What have they been about? Horc, Hemsky, Lecavalier, Dustin Brown, etc. All about the 1st line. So dont tell me I only use point totals for EVERY player, when that's not the case.
I'm going to have to agree with Arch on this one. At the end of the day the most important stat for the first line is how many points they put up. That is, afterall, the job of the first line is it not?
@ Archaeologuy:
Easy. Whoah! I was just poking a little fun. But in fairness, you ARE the guy who used a point production based argument to try and convince people that St. Louis is a better forward than LeCavalier. I argued with you for hours trying to show how you weren't lending proper value to Vinnys size, leadership, strength on the puck,... It took Gregor interveneing; pointing out that when asked who was the best player of the Tampa "big three", Tortorella answered, "I love them all, but Vinny is the guy you build your franchise around."
You DO tend to overvalue raw point production. IMO, You ignore HUGE deficits in Hemsky's game simply because of his point production. You undervalue Horcoff, calling him a top FORTY center, ignoring the many good things he brings to the table, because he ranks 36th in POINT PRODUCTION. Point production is NOT the end all, be all, even on the first line. Hossa has half as many points as Malkin... Is Hossa half the player? They are both in offensive roles. They both play first line. Hossa must be HALF as good as Malkin?
Gilbert Brule for #1 center!
Rocket surgery? Brain science? Sounds difficult lol.
What about Gilbert O”sullivan and cogliano for #1 pick John T ! Then him and Gagner become our nucleus.
Do you remember when the Oilers wanted both Tom Poti and Dan Cleary out of Edmonton?!?
Well well... look at both of them now. One is a conference finalist and the other is on pace to be a runner-up for the Conn Smythe trophy. Do you want that to happen again? Do you all really want to see Gilbert Brule go Daniel Cleary/Miroslav Satan/Ray Whitney on the Oilers again? Are the Oilers stupid enough to let another star slip through their fingers? Under Lowe... book it. Under TambourineMan... geeze i hope not.
Mikey wrote:
~I'd give a guy a standing ovation for a hat-trick goal even if the guy had been directly responsible for six goals against... wouldn't you?~
@ Chris: I still prefer St Louis to Lecavalier ;)
Horc IS top 40. That fits anywhere btwn 31-40. On his best day he's btwn 25-35, and he didnt have any of those good days last season.
Chris wrote:
Hossa had 71 points and 40 goals. Malkin had 114 points and 35 goals.
Malkin is clearly the better player, he will be a MVP candidate for years. Hossa scored 40 goals. Theyre both elite players.
I will contend that Horcoff (with 53 points) IS half the player of a Malkin.
Austin Ayala wrote:
What has Gilbert ever done in the NHL that makes you think he is or ever will be a star?
@ Archaeologuy: Gilbert Brule, that is
Archaeologuy wrote:
Maybe it was a point production analysis that saddled the Oilers up with Lupul....
Lowe- The dude scored TWENTY-EIGHT GOALS with Annaheim. He must be good right?
Reason- He floats. He Isn't strong on the puck. He can't win a puck battle. IMO. His totals MUST be inflated by weak opposition, combined with the benifit of playing with quality linemates.
Lowe- TWENTY-EIGHT GOALS! Wow. AND HE'S FROM EDMONTON! Yes. He's the man. I don't even need to scout him or taker a deeper look at the stats. He's our ONE-SHOT-SCORER. Call Pronger and tell him he's going to Annaheim!
@ Chris: Can you describe what you mean by directly responsible? There are 5 guys on the ice for most of the game usually.